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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #1,441
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:55am Oct 15, 2010 7:55am
Quoting lawgirl21
86

You are so welcome! Great job, how long were you in the trade?

I was in the trade for 6 or so hours. EUR/USD spiked up just before US economic data.

I was concerned about the news and decided to move my SL to BE+ and fortunately it spiked up and took out my TP instead of my SL

Luck? maybe ... It was either tiny profit or target profit. Either way was fine for me.
  • #1,442
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:43am Oct 15, 2010 9:43am
Quoting lawgirl21
I did make good pips on this pair this week and I am looking a short again. 3rd tap occurred this candle.Candle will change in 1 hour, if PA continues down, I will enter short. Monthly and weekly are short. I won't generally trade against a strong weekly direction this late in the week.
Hi Lawgirl, great thread, well done !

I'm new to forex factory but not new to forex trading. I've been through your thread (and D's) a few times now but still have one piece missing.

I have attached your chart with a few options on where the line of choice could be for the 3 tap but have not yet understood how the latter two taps are selected. I understand about the RSI over different timeframes as the prime filter, followed up with PA, but I have not yet managed to replicate the entries I have seen posted.

In your experience, is there something basic or obvious that people have contacted you about that they are missing ? Or is it simply a case of waiting for it to click with the suitable amount of effort?

I'm keen to understand more about the 3 tap as it looks interesting?
Thanks in advance for any feedback on this.

TC
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  • #1,443
  • Edited 10:04am Oct 15, 2010 9:50am | Edited 10:04am
also, guys, here is a new idea i wanna you to incorporate with - all we know that some pairs have a strong correlation between each other what simply means that if one is going up most likely other ones will follow the same way. this should really help when we do a quick scan here. for some reason i did not pay attention to this concept up to this morning although all the multi currency systems have to do so, no matter even what kind of entry rules are.

the simple example from todays trading session :
i got same looking signals on NZDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD.
i opened a position for cable and nzd only but later i figured out that AUDUSD and EURUSD had almost the same way to go also.
i could simply double the profit if would open 4 instead of 2 positions, also if know an approximate volatility move of each pair, the tp's are could be something like :
NZDUSD : 20-30 pips
EURUSD : 30-40 pips
GBPUSD : 30-40 pips
AUDUSD : 20-30 pips
  • #1,444
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:48am Oct 15, 2010 10:48am
Quoting Delite
I know the 3 taps method is designed for higher t/f but I can't see why the same principle couldn't be distilled to the lower t/fs. Does anyone have a view on this?
It can work on any TF.
  • #1,445
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:49am Oct 15, 2010 10:49am
Quoting jak12310
I was in the trade for 6 or so hours. EUR/USD spiked up just before US economic data.

I was concerned about the news and decided to move my SL to BE+ and fortunately it spiked up and took out my TP instead of my SL

Luck? maybe ... It was either tiny profit or target profit. Either way was fine for me.
That is exacting the right attitude to have.
  • #1,446
  • Edited 11:12am Oct 15, 2010 11:00am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting topcat
Hi Lawgirl, great thread, well done !

I'm new to forex factory but not new to forex trading. I've been through your thread (and D's) a few times now but still have one piece missing.

I have attached your chart with a few options on where the line of choice could be for the 3 tap but have not yet understood how the latter two taps are selected. I understand about the RSI over different timeframes as the prime filter, followed up with PA, but I have not yet managed to replicate the entries I have seen posted.

In your experience, is there something...
Hi TC--I have tried to duplicate the chart so that we can look at each of these marked trades one at a time.

I have marked the 3 trades shown by your dotted lines. I believe the question is which one/s were good trades?

Trade 1: Yes there are 3 definite taps, but unless you took this trade right on the 3rd candle tap and got a little of the ride down, the next H4 candle shows us that this was not a good short trade.

Trade 2: This trade set-up occurs 8-12 hours after trade 1. This is the trade of the week for this pair. This trade was almost a 200 pip trade. This trade lasted almost 24 hours. Then the direction changes.

Trade 3: Not really a short set-up. Look at PA for the last 24 hours. Probably RSI has changed from short on the daily and H4 charts at that point.

Hope this helps.
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  • #1,447
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:23am Oct 15, 2010 11:23am
Quoting sashasan
also, guys, here is a new idea i wanna you to incorporate with - all we know that some pairs have a strong correlation between each other what simply means that if one is going up most likely other ones will follow the same way. this should really help when we do a quick scan here. for some reason i did not pay attention to this concept up to this morning although all the multi currency systems have to do so, no matter even what kind of entry rules are.

the simple example from todays trading session :
i got same looking signals on NZDUSD, EURUSD...
This is true, but this strategy can also turn around and bite big time. watch the greed factor here!
  • #1,448
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:23am Oct 15, 2010 11:23am
Hi LG

I am studying the 4hr 3taps and have look thru many charts.

As I go thru the charts manually, I noticed that the third tap can vary abit unless the 3rd tap is relatively close to the 2nd tap - better if they are consecutive bars.

The scaling of the charts seems to be a factor for the 3rd tap. The longer the period showed on the chart and the price movement over that period influences the 3rd tap.

Anyone else notice this? Any suggestions how to overcome this? Sorry if this has already been covered.

Thanks.
  • #1,449
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:28pm Oct 15, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Trade 1: Yes there are 3 definite taps, but unless you took this trade right on the 3rd candle tap and got a little of the ride down, the next H4 candle shows us that this was not a good short trade.
On this point, I have a problem. The next H4 candle shows that the trade was a loser. But that doesn't mean that it was not a good trade. Some good trades are losers. Some bad trades make lots of money. Ultimately, the question of whether a trade is good or bad has to be something that can be evaluated at the point when the trade is put on. It should not depend on the result of the trade.
  • #1,450
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:34pm Oct 15, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting sashasan
also, guys, here is a new idea i wanna you to incorporate with - all we know that some pairs have a strong correlation between each other what simply means that if one is going up most likely other ones will follow the same way. this should really help when we do a quick scan here. for some reason i did not pay attention to this concept up to this morning although all the multi currency systems have to do so, no matter even what kind of entry rules are.

the simple example from todays trading session :
i got same looking signals on NZDUSD,...
Of course, if you have confidence in your trade, you could just increase your lot size. That would also increase both your profits and your risk. But at least that way, you would at least be betting on a trade that you had analyzed.

If, at some time, you wanted to short the dollar, but wanted to spread the risk sometime, then it would make sense to spread your trade out over a number of currencies. But I don't think the same reasoning applies to a system like this one.
  • #1,451
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:56pm Oct 15, 2010 12:56pm
Hi All,

Had a good day today and I just want to say a big thankyou to lawgirl for her on going commitment to this thread long may it continue and long my the thread stay clear of any indicators and other complications this method clearly doesnt need

Have a brilliant weekend everyone and see you Monday

TheDell
  • #1,452
  • Oct 15, 2010 4:29pm Oct 15, 2010 4:29pm
Weekend finally , on Friday i only trade with demo, and today i receive a nasty hit on my demo account,i am terrified , because it could be easily a live account. my ego ruined my account, lesson to be learned !

Any way i was thinking about LG 1hour BO box , and i have looking a whole day in the charts , and find out that its more profitable to trade on BO box opening day then on opening of the markets like London or NY , somehow the boxes are smaller and its more possible that you will end in profit. I have been using London simple BO box , its excellent but its starting to be more complicated ,at least for me. Since Steve suggested that he will work on LG trend line ea, is possible that someone develop simple ea based on H1 Lg box rules.Nothing complicated, just to draw boxes and to place a trades?
btw sorry for my bad English...my Deutch is better....and Mongolian
Help to be helped.
  • #1,453
  • Oct 15, 2010 6:34pm Oct 15, 2010 6:34pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Hi TC--I have tried to duplicate the chart so that we can look at each of these marked trades one at a time.

I have marked the 3 trades shown by your dotted lines. I believe the question is which one/s were good trades?

Trade 1: Yes there are 3 definite taps, but unless you took this trade right on the 3rd candle tap and got a little of the ride down, the next H4 candle shows us that this was not a good short trade.

Trade 2: This trade set-up occurs 8-12 hours after trade 1. This is the trade of the week for this pair. This trade was almost...
Hi Lawgirl, thx for the answer. I understand what you mean regarding the outcome of the entries and agree that 3 is not good given the HH HL pattern emerging etc.

I guess after re-reading your answer I can rephrase my question .. is there any reason why you waited and drew your original line on the tops you chose or would you say that Trades 1 & 2 could have fallen into your criteria to take if you were at your terminal? If this is so then I think I am getting it, if not then I've not quite got why you passed them by (yet).

Am I correct in thinking that trade 1 gave no obvious clues to its subsequent behaviour and it would just be written off as a statistic to move on from (given I would have had a SL in place that would have been hit with that retrace?)

Again many thx for your help and insight. .... Good work all round!

TC
  • #1,454
  • Oct 16, 2010 12:30am Oct 16, 2010 12:30am
Quoting lawgirl21
3 Tap Set-up short
Hello all, hello lawgirl21! Thanks for share with us your trading strategies.
I was looking this setup (AUDUSD H4, 3 taps in 12.10.10, 13:45 GMT) and wondering if there was something to convince me to not take this trade.

Well, I took it for a loss of 30 pips. That's ok, this was a fantastic week and I am happy with a profit of 150 pips. Thanks again, lawgirl21, for this.

But the question is: There are some aditional filter to use with this (and similar) setups to increase our results?

In H4 there was a Trendline (LT) below the entry point, but there was 33 pips of distance and this is ok for me.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1287206722

If we look at M15, there are two possibilities:

1) Use a slower RSI and the 50 level cross to enter in a trade;
2) Use price action, waiting for a LH, LL to enter (blue line). In this case, the entry point could be at 98.02, around 15:30 GMT.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1287206722

Any thoughts?

Hugs from Brazil
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,455
  • Oct 16, 2010 7:51am Oct 16, 2010 7:51am
The attached is an EA and so goes in your Expert Advisors folder.

It attempts to give an at-a-glance view of the trending status of the pairs you wish to trade. The 'Trend' col will show up/down if all three tf Rsi's are heading in the same direction. If not, it will show 'flat'.

There are a few things to consider:

 

  1. We are using Rsi in this system as a visual aid - the actual value has no significance. This cannot be coded, so a robot has to have set parameters to work within. LookBackCandles tells it how far back in time to go to compare Rsi now with Rsi then. I thought we might need to look back a few candles to get a direction, but was forgetting that Rsi(3) is highly sensitive to movement, and the default of 1 appears ok. People can experiment.
  2. Does there need to be x points separation between Rsi now and Rsi then.I originally thought that there should, hence the MinimumValueChange input. This turned out not to be especially important and the default of 1 appears to work OK.
  3. I suggest that people go to the relevant chart if both the D1 and W1 line up, even if the H4 does not. The H4 is the trigger, so going in the 'wrong' direction may simply indicate a retrace that will lead eventually to a tap of the trendline.

Bearing 3) in mind, would people like me to remove the H4 from the trend-spotting decision process and use only the two higher tf's? I only came across this thread on Thursday, and will be guided by lg and the more experienced traders.

So, bung the ea on a chart and see if it needs tweaking. To save hammering our processors, I have coded the bot to check in with Rsi every five minutes instead of every tick.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 10 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Lawgirl's Trend Display EA.mq4   9 KB | 3,852 downloads
  • #1,456
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:17am Oct 16, 2010 9:17am
Quoting lawgirl21
This is true, but this strategy can also turn around and bite big time. watch the greed factor here!
well, during last week i have found a lot of possibilities for 3 tap trading (IBFX), many of them were really questionable and shown a loss later. so here would be more secure to enter checking pairs' correlation method.
also, achieve a 100 pips goal for one trading session is much easier and faster.
  • #1,457
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:19am Oct 16, 2010 9:19am
so i see you almost made a trap for LG's system?

Quoting SteveHopwood
The attached is an EA and so goes in your Expert Advisors folder.

It attempts to give an at-a-glance view of the trending status of the pairs you wish to trade. The 'Trend' col will show up/down if all three tf Rsi's are heading in the same direction. If not, it will show 'flat'.

There are a few things to consider:
[list=1][*]We are using Rsi in this system as a visual aid - the actual value has no significance. This cannot be coded, so a robot has to have set parameters to work within. LookBackCandles tells it how far back in time to...
  • #1,458
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:22am Oct 16, 2010 9:22am
Quoting jak12310
EUR/USD 4h around 3:15 EDT looks good for long position.

Entered on 1.4043 hope I got this right.
Jak, did you pull some pips out of this trade?
  • #1,459
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:46am Oct 16, 2010 9:46am
Quoting sashasan
well, during last week i have found a lot of possibilities for 3 tap trading (IBFX), many of them were really questionable and shown a loss later. so here would be more secure to enter checking pairs' correlation method.
also, achieve a 100 pips goal for one trading session is much easier and faster.
Yes, we never lack for set-ups with this system. That's why I am seldom upset when I miss a good set-up that turned out to be a big winner. There will always be others coming along. I am not sure what set-ups you were looking at this past week,and I suspect that you may have been trying to get too many pips out of each trade, but I made over 200 pips by Wednesday and so stopped trading live for the rest of the week.

Achieving a 100 pip goal in one session would be great and I have done it many times, but to attempt it on every trade is, in my opinion, folly. You also used the forex traders works of doom: "easier and faster". I am hoping no traders here follow your advice.

Instead, slow and steady is the path recommended here. Not trying to squeeze every last pip out of a trade, just going for that middle 1/3 of a move....but doing it over and over again, week in and week out. It's boring, but it's profitable.
  • #1,460
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:56am Oct 16, 2010 9:56am
Quoting lawgirl21
Achieving a 100 pip goal in one session would be great and I have done it many times, but to attempt it on every trade is, in my opinion, folly. You also used the forex traders works of doom: "easier and faster". I am hoping no traders here follow your advice.
No, of course, i meant different thing - divided by 3-4 pairs by 20-40 pips tp's, achieve a 100 pips amount is really easy, not by 100 pips on each trade!
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