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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,201
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:39am Oct 15, 2010 7:39am
Isn't it going to form a text-book double-bottom in UJ? 30M, 1H, 4H
I hope it is!
  • #20,202
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:00am Oct 15, 2010 8:00am
Quoting Forexgogo
Isn't it going to form a text-book double-bottom in UJ? 30M, 1H, 4H
I hope it is!
Yeah, the rebound is there - but fake IMO. Ben has been clear what he's expecting Nov 3, and that means we'll have a bit of a rebound here until the selling of USD resumes. Question is to which TL will it potentially go. Can't forget there have apparently been some USD buyers, but to think they're locked into long term and that they can beat the bears and fundamentals is a stretch. (Yen & intervention may become more of a factor as time goes on) What the will do to EURUSD and GBPUSD is a bit more up in the air - looks like they have had their up moves sold into as well. Both are out of gas and overbought too, and there's talk of QE for sterling. AUDUSD parity reached too - some of those reversal points I mentioned before have been met; AUDUSD parity hasn't been the case for 28 years.
  • #20,203
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:09am Oct 15, 2010 8:09am
Here's another perspective: Ben didn't announce anything that wasn't know, unexpected, or not already priced in. Bond yields are rising on the same theory. Gold's down $15. Given the dollar has been falling for weeks, there's a case to be made things are priced in. Might have a bit more of a case for some dollar recovery. GBPUSD, EURUSD down 100 pips from their Ben-time pop.
  • #20,204
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:17am Oct 15, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Beljevina
Here's another perspective: Ben didn't announce anything that wasn't know, unexpected, or not already priced in. Bond yields are rising on the same theory. Gold's down $15. Given the dollar has been falling for weeks, there's a case to be made things are priced in. Might have a bit more of a case for some dollar recovery. GBPUSD, EURUSD down 100 pips from their Ben-time pop.
That's right.....a fair bit has been priced in this week, waiting for Bernanke to drop his load, but he didn't do it. So I'm thinking that a bit of relief is what we are seeing right now. How long it will last I suppose will depend on the talking heads between now and Nov 3rd........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,205
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:52am Oct 15, 2010 8:52am
longterm I believe USD JPY is poised to test the alltime-low. Its so close now.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,206
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:03am Oct 15, 2010 10:03am
Here's the chart I'd been posting - looks like a touch of the TL, value 76.144. Count on a retest getting close, or sailing on downwards further. Chartwise, it's a fairly steep decline and should merit at least some retrace upwards. Should be interesting for most of the days next week (remember, each bar is a week) . If it holds, we could retrace as we get closer to Nov 3. Would be nice if BoJ helped things along - they've been huffing and puffing all week. But there's a lot of financial strategizing there, and I don't think Japan is up to it ... G20 meeting coming up Oct 22 too - you know how fearful the sovereign leaders of Japan are!
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  • #20,207
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:12am Oct 15, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Beljevina
Here's the chart I'd been posting - looks like a touch of the TL, value 76.144. Count on a retest getting close, or sailing on downwards further. Chartwise, it's a fairly steep decline and should merit at least some retrace upwards. Should be interesting for most of the days next week (remember, each bar is a week) . If it holds, we could retrace as we get closer to Nov 3. Would be nice if BoJ helped things along - they've been huffing and puffing all week. But there's a lot of financial strategizing there, and I don't think Japan is up to it ......
That is very interesting!! Thanks for the post.
  • #20,208
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:46am Oct 15, 2010 10:46am
Quoting Beljevina
... But there's a lot of financial strategizing there, and I don't think Japan is up to it ... G20 meeting coming up Oct 22 too - you know how fearful the sovereign leaders of Japan are!
That is right...BOJ is too weak to challenge market...BOE capitulated long time ago...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,209
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:56am Oct 15, 2010 10:56am
Quoting georgem
longterm I believe USD JPY is poised to test the alltime-low. Its so close now.
Bro, whats that all time low...is it 79.75? May be thats where BOJ action starts
  • #20,210
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:07am Oct 15, 2010 11:07am
Quoting PipMaxzz
Bro, whats that all time low...is it 79.75? May be thats where BOJ action starts
Yes, 79.70... If the market wants to take this number out, maybe thats what it takes for the BoJ to wake up and throw some money at the problem....

I would have to see what happens start of next week.. will it consolidate? There are alot more USD Buyers last 48 hours...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,211
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:19am Oct 15, 2010 11:19am
Didn't realize this rumour or timing of report release, in 40 minutes. This should add to USD strength. Keeping shorts, but no new xxxUSD longs, Strange timing on this report release ... something's up to see this much movement through lunchour. Full credit to zerohedge.
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  • #20,212
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:41am Oct 15, 2010 11:41am
UJ is a forex trap.
so look now. if we get some buying into USD because of banks or whatever safe heaven might be.

Who is going to go higher. yes JPY

So better times or worse UJ should go down.
sorry it's the opposite of a no brainer trade.

it's a forex trap
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,213
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:43am Oct 15, 2010 11:43am
Quoting Beljevina
Didn't realize this rumour or timing of report release, in 40 minutes. This should add to USD strength. Keeping shorts, but no new xxxUSD longs, Strange timing on this report release ... something's up to see this much movement through lunchour. Full credit to zerohedge.
zero-hedge is not a reliable source.
they are full of "rumors" most of them just lies
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,214
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:44am Oct 15, 2010 11:44am
interesting word you use here: forextrap..

can you elaborate?

Of course USD JPY can go much lower, but will we not reach a point were there will be a horrific, explosive reversal? It will happen.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,215
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:03pm Oct 15, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting DMA Trader
zero-hedge is not a reliable source.
they are full of "rumors" most of them just lies
CNBC, citing Reuters, says Treasury report could now come after the G20 meeting in Nov

so again ZH just attracting users
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,216
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:04pm Oct 15, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting georgem
interesting word you use here: forextrap..

can you elaborate?

Of course USD JPY can go much lower, but will we not reach a point were there will be a horrific, explosive reversal? It will happen.
sorry man. i've express my opinion earlier as BOJ - Intervention - UJ

was just a joke with the forex trap. i can't find reasons for the pair to go up
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,217
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:05pm Oct 15, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting Hugo Boss
bearish again...
it will touch 80,73

some body is watching closely.....
I miss 0,13 pts....

I think 80,87 is the bottom....
  • #20,218
  • Edited 12:26pm Oct 15, 2010 12:10pm | Edited 12:26pm
can someone please post a 1hr and 4 hr chart please ?

with Macd, Histogram and Stocs (default)

is that a double bottom forming on the 1 hr ? (around 81.05 ? )

thanks

(still haven't go around with my Mac )
  • #20,219
  • Edited 1:20pm Oct 15, 2010 12:30pm | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting DMA Trader
CNBC, citing Reuters, says Treasury report could now come after the G20 meeting in Nov

so again ZH just attracting users
I can tell you don't like ZH ... they're overly bearish and apocalyptic, but no more so than the annoying stupid mainstream everything's great media promoting "your gov't is looking out for you" - it's a matter of balancing and making sense of the very complicated facts out there. Order of operations on ZH's issuance of stuff here wasn't at all problematic - I posted the report's to be out - as everyone was reporting - and then Timmy delayed it, and they added that to the update.

More concerning is why it was all set to go, and then stopped? Obviously the contents weren't fitting the Obama prescription, so it goes back for a rewrite - this kind of stuff happens at high levels more often that most people believe.

Now, Archer asked for charts ... not the best, but M15 & H1 shows it pretty OK. Check the stopping volume during Ben talk time this NY morning; there's been talk of SM buying for days now.
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  • #20,220
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:37pm Oct 15, 2010 12:37pm
it was bottom at 79.15 way back in 1994

chart from 1978


http://i41.tinypic.com/2hmmomw.jpg
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