NatGas weekly charts

Henry Hub… weakness below last week's 3.583 low print alerts to 3.439 inflection low. Below here I will look for offers to 3.228 intra-week. On the other hand, a rebound above last week's 3.736 pivot high opens the door to 3.863 inflection high. Once crossed, the bulls should run towards 4.074 intra-week high.

+96 estimate for thursday. bear again. might touch 3.2 usd

geo

irrespective this weeks cot report should be interesting to read, volume picked up late last week and this week

2d

i think we will see the bottom soon .

Historical trading range of oil to natural gas price ratio has been in the range of 5:1 to 10:1
Oil to natural gas energy equivalent ratio is 6:1
Since 2008, , the ratio has averaged >14:1 and we believe the trend will continue through
2012, but improve thereafter
Are there any reasons to be optimistic about natural gas prices? We think yes!
Post 2011 natural gas drilling much more price driven rather than carry or HBP driven
Industry very responsive over a 2-3 year period to incentives: so, oil drilling on rise and natural gas
drilling to fall - gas supply/demand balance will benefit as a result
Combination of renewed growth in electricity demand, renewed industrial demand
― U.S. has lowest natural gas prices in modernized world and ongoing shutdown of older coal-fired power
plants will generate more natural gas demand in 2011 and beyond and will accelerate by mid decade
Investment community short natural gas (in fact, hates natural gas now and forever)
― Natural gas not likely to stay a $1 per MMBTU discount to coal parity which the forward curve now predicts
Better GTL technology is the natural gas industry's Holy Grail and will begin to make a difference in
demand in 2015 and beyond;

Paula remains a Category 2 hurricane and will pass dangerously close to Cancun and Cozumel Wednesday, while sending rounds of heavy rain into South Florida.

DJ US NATURAL GAS INVENTORY SURVEY: 89 Bcf Build Seen
Oct 13, 2010
By Matt Day
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show another above-average build in natural gas inventories during autumn's seasonal lull in demand.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 89 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage during the week ended Oct. 8, according to the average prediction of 18 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

The survey's median result was 91 billion cubic feet, with a high estimate of a 98-bcf build and a low of a 66-bcf injection. The storage estimate is higher than last year's 60-bcf build in storage for the same week and the 64-bcf five-year average build for that week.

If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of this past Friday will total 3.588 trillion cubic feet, 7.3% above the five-year average and 3.2% below last year's level for the same week.

The last four weeks of storage builds have been above average, narrowing the gap between this year's storage level and 2009's record highs. The amount of U.S. gas in storage hit an all-time high of 3.837 tcf in November 2009 as weak demand from recession-hit commercial and industrial users and strong U.S. gas production boosted inventories.

The EIA's weekly storage page is http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html.


-By Matt Day, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-4986; [email protected]

WEEKLY CHART, might go to next level fibo

HI ALL. Some notes about Nat.Gas [bad English, sorry http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...lies/frown.gif]

previous post

A lang term chart of "Blu" with some lines.


Tuned on beautiful blue.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

i have 3 targets for nat gas and 3 supports . 1, 2, and 3 . WEEKLY CHART.
waiting for comments. thanks.

Possible Development in the Future for the Caribbean
Oct 17, 2010 10:38 AM
Most of the Atlantic Basin is quiet this weekend, but we are monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean. Widespread thunderstorm activity is noted across this area of the Caribbean in association with a broad area of low pressure. Warm waters and light wind shear, both favorable for developing tropical systems, are present over this portion of the Caribbean. Tropical development is possible in the region this week. The steering flow would likely take this tropical feature into Central America. However, a piece of the system could break away and come north toward Cuba, but strong westerly winds aloft across the Gulf would cause a hostile environment for development. Another area of disturbed weather is farther east in the open Atlantic, but the system is not in an area likely for tropical development and is several days from any land masses.
Elsewhere, conditions are very quiet with no significant threats for tropical development through the end of the weekend.
By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck updated by Meteorologist Mark Paquette

hey friends!
is this right time to go long in natural gas??? [long term view]

or may fall more???
what is the best buying range for longterm ???

wait for thursday storage data release . see the calendar here on site. will be bearish .

HI ALL. Some notes about Nat.Gas [bad English, sorry http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...lies/frown.gif]

previous post

Two different seasonal charts on NG-future, in order to see the statistical behaviour of nrg-commodity.

http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=023651&p=h1


Tuned on beautiful blue.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

US GAS: Futures Rise For A Second Day On Bargain Buying
Oct 20, 2010
By Matt Day
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural-gas futures rose Wednesday for a second consecutive day on bargain buying as market participants who had bet that gas prices would fall bought back those positions to profit from the market's recent declines.

Natural gas for November delivery climbed 5.6 cents, or 1.6%, to $3.569 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The benchmark contract ended higher Tuesday, as traders were reluctant to bet that the market would continue lower after setting 13-month lows this week.

Market participants in recent weeks have been weighing expectations of winter heating demand against high inventories. Strong production has left the U.S. market well supplied, and the overhang since has stifled attempts at a seasonal rally and pressured prices lower.

Wednesday's rebound suggests that the market is rebalancing itself ahead of winter, said Gene McGillian, an analyst with Tradition Energy. But there's still the potential for prices to slide further because of "robust storage with no market to speak of," he said.

The last five injections into U.S. storage have been above average, and analysts say this week's storage report could continue the trend. The Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report is scheduled for release Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

"I don't think we've really turned yet," McGillian said. "The factors which have driven us to 13-month lows still overhang the market."

Citing high supply and weak demand, Barclays Capital Wednesday cut its 2011 natural gas price forecast to $3.94, from its previous estimate of $4.10.

"The contrast of growing supply and falling demand should lead to inevitable downward price pressure," Barclays analysts wrote. Barclays also cut its 2012 price view to $4.50, down from $5.25.

EnCana Corp. (ECA) Wednesday reduced its 2010 production estimates due to low gas prices. The company cut its production guidance to 3.315 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent a day from its previous view of 3.365 bcf.

"North America's ongoing oversupply of natural gas production has driven prices for the near term to levels that we believe are unsustainably low. As such, we are slowing the near-term growth rate of our resource plays," EnCana said in reporting its third-quarter earnings. "We will not pursue growth at any cost," the company said.

Meanwhile, a developing storm system in the Caribbean has a 70% chance of forming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said early Wednesday. Most storms so far during Atlantic hurricane season have steered clear of the Gulf of Mexico, and this storm is also not widely expected to enter the Gulf. Gas prices can spike if storms are seen threatening the U.S. energy production infrastructure in the Gulf.


-By Matt Day, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-4986; [email protected]

Natural_gas_production_world

Natural Gas still continue Negative trend?? after data touching low n low...

should i avoid going long at this level????

just wait

geocatalinfx

ok... will wait.......

thanks for reply...

i think in one-two weeks i will buy.