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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,141
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:41am Oct 14, 2010 2:41am
Quoting Beljevina
Yeah, there are a lot of 'walls' that look to be hit pretty soon - whether they'll hold/reverse the flow or burst, we'll have to wait, perhaps a day or two, or some sideways movement to get us to Nov 2 (QE2 day).

USDX is almost there; this might correspond to a EURUSD top of 1.4150, GBPUSD at 1.607, AUDUSD parity. Should the equity markets comtinue to take off re QE2, we might just keep the trend going - too hard to call, as too many correlations are broken.

In support of those (of us) who feel a dollar reversal is a smidge away: [url="http://seekingalpha.com/article/228090-3-reasons-the-dollar-is-about-to-rally-a-contrarian-case-for-the-greenback"]3...
Very interesting links, thanks for posting them

I'm just spitballing here but, whatever method of lowering currency is employed, the sentiment always seems to be to boost exports.....to become more competive in the wrold market for ones own exports. The thinking is (I guess) that more exports = more demand = ramped up production = more jobs = more spending (by the employed) = prosperity for all.

The reality though, seems to differ.....and we can see that by the considerable help (in other words, taxpayers money spent) given to manufactures and exporters by vaious means, including weaker currency. Yet, unemployment still rises. Is it that these companies who are on the receiving end of this help are stashing away the money, and not re-investing in their business by way of expansion, R&D, employing more workers etc etc etc?

It seems to me that all this 'quantative easing' and other methods are doing is keeping those who are alive....to stay alive....and they are doing it by protecting their huge salaries, performance 'bonuses' etc, without looking at the big picture.....which of course is that to make money, you need to spend money. To not spend money on R&D, expansion into new markets, expansion of products, more employment etc etc, seems very shortsighted to me.

If manufacturers/exporters are to be given all this help, can they not see that stashing away the profits for a rainy it not going to work.....hello.....it's raining now!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,142
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:44am Oct 14, 2010 2:44am
IMO I think Noda says one thing but will likely / possibly do another thing. Wouldn't surprise me if they did a big hit initially. Its war and really anything is possible and polly's word are always vague.
  • #20,143
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:58am Oct 14, 2010 2:58am
When the BOJ started their intervention, memories of the BOS intervention had already faded.

Now look at it. It is an almost repeat performance.

I really wonder what is going through the minds of the perverted central bank offialdom who signed off that currency intervention.
  • #20,144
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:59am Oct 14, 2010 2:59am
FinMin Noda said that South Korea could lose its G20 leaderships role because of its FX intervention and South Korea has now complained to Japan about these comments.
It’s going to be difficult for Noda to sanction fresh intervention if he makes comments like this.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,145
  • Edited 4:13am Oct 14, 2010 3:34am | Edited 4:13am
Quoting pqt
Read my lips: There is NO intervention. Uncle Sam said Yoda &Cie naughty naughty and took the toy away from them.
Quoting pqt
Nobody read my lips?

Quoting pqt
You guys really crack me up with all your whining. You have been taken for a ride and keep sitting there rationalizing about an intervention that would make you all millionaires overnight. Get a grip on it and start trading UJ like any other pair with proper MM and stop losses or get out altogether until the whole mess clears up.
Just my 2 cents...
Yeah,I TOLD YOU SO.
But truth is Yoda and co don't have time to intervene yet coz they are still busy watching fx move closely and with great interest!
  • #20,146
  • Oct 14, 2010 3:45am Oct 14, 2010 3:45am
THe last news i read at bloomberg that bernanke estimate that when the QE2 is released then dollar indexes will drop 10-15 percent. This news is a WOW for me, if the dollar index drop 10 percent then the usd/jpy will be lower then 79.xx please correct me if i'm wrong.
  • #20,147
  • Oct 14, 2010 3:49am Oct 14, 2010 3:49am
Quoting yeri
THe last news i read at bloomberg that bernanke estimate that when the QE2 is released then dollar indexes will drop 10-15 percent. This news is a WOW for me, if the dollar index drop 10 percent then the usd/jpy will be lower then 79.xx please correct me if i'm wrong.

You got a link to that?
  • #20,148
  • Oct 14, 2010 3:52am Oct 14, 2010 3:52am
Quoting yeri
THe last news i read at bloomberg that bernanke estimate that when the QE2 is released then dollar indexes will drop 10-15 percent. This news is a WOW for me, if the dollar index drop 10 percent then the usd/jpy will be lower then 79.xx please correct me if i'm wrong.
I think that if Bernake is stupid enough to carry this QE2 out, he'll be buying himself (and USA) into a fight that he will lose. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE69D04120101014
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,149
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:03am Oct 14, 2010 4:03am
Quoting realjumper
I think that if Bernake is stupid enough to carry this QE2 out, he'll be buying himself (and USA) into a fight that he will lose. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE69D04120101014

Well Noda should order a intervention in response to Bernake's plan but chooses not too. Weird, if that US has already fired the first shot then one would think BOJ and Japans MOF would retalliate hard. They must be in collusion to achieve a mutual goal? otherwise USD will sink Japan soon.
  • #20,150
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:10am Oct 14, 2010 4:10am
Quoting dejamls
Well Noda should order a intervention in response to Bernake's plan but chooses not too. Weird, if that US has already fired the first shot then one would think BOJ and Japans MOF would retalliate hard. They must be in collusion to achieve a mutual goal? otherwise USD will sink Japan soon.
I don't think that 'fighting fire with fire' would be a good idea. An all out currency war will spread to a trade war, and that's what started the Great Depression of the last century.

Personally I am absolutely stunned that Bernake & the Feds are intervening so blatently, and threatening more of the same, while at the same time growling at any other country that dares to do the same. Every exporting country wants a lower exchange rate to benefit their exports. What gives Bernake the right to suggest that USA alone can engineer a low exchange rate at the expense of every other country??? Does he not expect them to do the same? Does he want a currency war? Is he stupid enough to think he will win?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,151
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:21am Oct 14, 2010 4:21am
Could be big drop tonight with US news.
  • #20,152
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:24am Oct 14, 2010 4:24am
Now everybody know that very easy to fight with usa. With "Currency War" not "fire war". For trader like us, take all pip by pip to fullfill our pocket... in this war
  • #20,153
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:27am Oct 14, 2010 4:27am
Quoting realjumper
The reality though, seems to differ.....and we can see that by the considerable help (in other words, taxpayers money spent) given to ...
That's a good summary of some of the issues with companies & job growth. Take IBM as an example. Highly regarded, fairly cutting edge, but a master of marketing as much as a technology producing marvel. And with the right marketing, you can look far beyond the factual points and confuse & mislead most people.

They had 450K+ employees worldwide, dipping to around 330K through the last decade half. They'd divested themselves of low profit margin production areas, focusing on services, in great part through IGS, BUT providing those services via offshoring wherever possible. They'd built huge facilities in Bangalore to house 30K employees, adding more later getting it to 80K currently, expecting to have 100K+ India wide next year. They slashed and burned everything they could from North America and Europe: internal work, coding, services, call center, manufacturing. To diversify, they also moved work to The Philippines, South/Central America, and many other low cost 3rd world rank environments. Tens of thousands across NA/Europe were fired. Those that remained saw their pay scales stallout, incentive/bonus programs were rejigged/rephrased/retimed every few years to save the company tens of millions each time, and NA/European new recruits came in at far lesser cost than those leaving.

But equity markets don't give a rat's ass about jobs, applauding job losses (ie., look at stocks today). IBM happily took the offshore cheap labour and 25-year old average age and the lack of experience they had from these startups, and had their customers put up with substandard service, buggy code, delayed implementations, etc. All the while, they kept market analysts in their pockets by giving stellar earnings quarter after quarter through brand/line divestiture, acquisitions, and building up a cash reserve.

Point being that corporations have no interest nor incentive to build jobs back up in NA/Europe. Cost has been king, and if it could move, it was shipped overseas. Dell got/saved millions of startup costs to move customer service to Ireland, then packed up when the subsidies ran out - tens of thousands direct and indirect roles were wiped out overnight practically. Whoever could move something to China, they did; then westerners buy it back from China. It's laughable today to watch US politicians declare China the bad-boy on currency, now that so much is manufactured over there. What will a 20% yuan revaluation do to goods & prices for the average underpaid or unemployed westerner? I've not heard the theory that those jobs somehow come back. And how can that be mandated without incurring the wrath of the World Trade Org? And if those jobs come back, who will be able to pay for the significantly higher product or service cost? So back on the cost cutting path, when the current low cost centers become too expensive, Africa will be the next frontier. Few know it, but China has been quietly spending huge amounts of money on building, educating, mining & creating infrastructure in Africa. And as bad as Chinese sweat shops are, imagine their implementation of production facilities in Africa! The issues go on and on ...
  • #20,154
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:31am Oct 14, 2010 4:31am
Quoting dejamls
Could be big drop tonight with US news.
UJ just broke 81.00. 80.00 is getting reality now. I wonder when this USD storm calms down... probably it's going to last for a while. Let's see what happens after today's news.
  • #20,155
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:40am Oct 14, 2010 4:40am
Quoting dejamls
You got a link to that?
i can not give you the link since i read it on my ipod, try to look this news title at bloomberg : " dollar falls to 15-Year Low Versus Yen on Fed Policy Outlook"

well i believe this drop now is more because the US news later on, bad news for US than USD/JPY will tumble close to 80.20, or even break the 80.00, the bad thing is todays news is more likely to be a bad number for US, so prepared guys, to bad i'm starting to runout of bullet......
  • #20,156
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:50am Oct 14, 2010 4:50am
We are making history.....

gonna break 79 !!!!!!!!!

For god sake stop talking about BOJ Intervention ... US economy is in trillions...

They will print to get out of debt ......
  • #20,157
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:51am Oct 14, 2010 4:51am
Quoting Beljevina
That's a good summary of some of the issues with companies & job growth. Take IBM as an example. Highly regarded, fairly cutting edge, but a master of marketing as much as a technology producing marvel. And with the right marketing, you can look far beyond the factual points and confuse & mislead most people.

They had 450K+ employees worldwide, dipping to around 330K through the last decade half. They'd divested themselves of low profit margin production areas, focusing on services, in great part through IGS, BUT providing those services via offshoring...
Yes, precisely. The same thing is happening here too. Here's an example. Fonterra is a company that *all* NZ dairy farmers sell their milk to. It's made into butter, cheese, milk power etc etc, and is exported. It is our largest export. Fonterra in it's infinate wisdom is now in India setting up the largest dairy product factory in the world.....and just to rub salt into the wound, they are transporting thousands of our best breeding stock over there too. Their reasoning is that India will be able to earn export currency by exporting the finished product overseas.......lol......overseas to where???.......to the very markets that keep NZ floating!!

My god.....you export the product, not the technology to make/process the product so that they can take our markets by sheer weight of numbers and consequent lower labour rates/cheaper end product!!

I'm all for helping emerging countries, but not at the expense of yourself. There's a good reason that we don't cut our own throats.....we don't want to bleed to death.

Try ringing up the ANZ bank, or the BNZ.....you'll be speaking to someone in Indonesia.

Why we do this to ourselves is mind blowing, yet when I raise these very issues locally, I get smacked down by the greedy few who stand to earn from this lunacy.

The ultimate end will be a shift to 3rd world status for the 1st world, and vice-versa.

We could all prosper if it were not for greed!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,158
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:58am Oct 14, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Beljevina
That's a good summary of some of the issues with companies & job growth. Take IBM as an example. Highly regarded, fairly cutting edge, but a master of marketing as much as a technology producing marvel. And with the right marketing, you can look far beyond the factual points and confuse & mislead most people.

Few know it, but China has been quietly spending huge amounts of money on building, educating, mining & creating infrastructure in Africa. And as bad as Chinese sweat shops are, imagine their implementation of production facilities in Africa!...
You'd think most people (who watch any news) would know about that, it's been all over the tv for ages. I take your point though. Any time I phone a 'call centre' I spend much of the time discussing where I travelled in India - which is at least better than complaining about not being able to understand a word the help desk operator is saying, lol
  • #20,159
  • Oct 14, 2010 5:06am Oct 14, 2010 5:06am
Quoting realjumper
Yes, precisely. The same thing is happening here too. Here's an example. Fonterra is a company that *all* NZ dairy farmers sell their milk to. It's made into butter, cheese, milk power etc etc, and is exported. It is our largest export. Fonterra in it's infinate wisdom is now in India setting up the largest dairy product factory in the world.....and just to rub salt into the wound, they are transporting thousands of our best breeding stock over there too. Their reasoning is that India will be able to earn export currency by exporting the finished...
It's crazy but true, [what you say] and been going on for so many years now. Seems to only people who can't see what is happening to our countries are the ones who instigate these daft policies - and when they wake up it will be too late.

Just watching the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games in India was a reminder of how many countries used to be called British only to be handed back to make a botch of themselves.
  • #20,160
  • Oct 14, 2010 5:17am Oct 14, 2010 5:17am
Quoting Lorna
It's crazy but true, [what you say] and been going on for so many years now. Seems to only people who can't see what is happening to our countries are the ones who instigate these daft policies - and when they wake up it will be too late.

Just watching the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games in India was a reminder of how many countries used to be called British only to be handed back to make a botch of themselves.
On the flip side of that coin is this: In the South Pacific there are many, many islands. Some are small and have (and have always had) a small population. Their contact with the 'outside world' is extremely minimal. The do have clothes, but not alot else from the outside world. They live as they always have.....fishing, hunting, growing food etc etc, and these people are happy.....I mean really happy. They don't know what an ipod is, and they don't care. They have a great lifestyle, yet, by our standards they have nothing.

Now, who is happier/more content/relaxed etc etc, us or them?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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