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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,121
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:51am Oct 14, 2010 12:51am
Quoting dejamls
I'm mystified why they are taking so long to intervene if they thought it was all too important to intervene much higher up the first time. The trend hasn't chnaged at all - downwards.

If they do intervene I think it would have to be the opposite what they are saying, would be long and sustained imo.
cos they are waiting for the right price level so boj can get support with some short liquidations, they know they can't manage the job by themselves only.
  • #20,122
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:58am Oct 14, 2010 12:58am
Quoting dejamls
I'm mystified why they are taking so long to intervene if they thought it was all too important to intervene much higher up the first time. The trend hasn't chnaged at all - downwards.

If they do intervene I think it would have to be the opposite what they are saying, would be long and sustained imo.

Kan said yesterday suggesting China and South Korea should stop preventing their currencies from appreciating.

The market know that they won't intervene currency, so they push down without doubt.
The market only fear to intervention, but Kan seems doesn't realize that.
  • #20,123
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:02am Oct 14, 2010 1:02am
Quoting Hugo Boss
Kan said yesterday suggesting China and South Korea should stop preventing their currencies from appreciating.

The market know that they won't intervene currency, so they push down without doubt.
The market only fear to intervention, but Kan seems doesn't realize that.
Kan can't handle his own currency, so he shouldn't concern himself with giving suggestions to other countries.....lol.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,124
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:04am Oct 14, 2010 1:04am
Seems to have some bullishness building up. But for every 50 pips, I am afraid it will come down 100 pips
  • #20,125
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:21am Oct 14, 2010 1:21am
I stop my short bias ...and
  • #20,126
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:27am Oct 14, 2010 1:27am
I give up going long on USD/JPY. No support seems to work. This is beyond any normal blood bath now.
  • #20,127
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:34am Oct 14, 2010 1:34am
geeez the market pushing this pair down and more down, there is no sign of intervention until now. and trader now are more confidence to push this pair down. ......
  • #20,128
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:36am Oct 14, 2010 1:36am
Quoting grashid
I stop my short bias ...and
I have a small long in place at 81.25, and I'm reasonably comfortable with it. There is nothing to suggest that this long bear run is over, but..... Yen at near all time high, Aussie nearly at parity, swissy record high etc etc....plus, usd/jpy way oversold on all time frames.....eur/usd oversold and on and on and on.......something IS going to give.....sooner or later.

Not very scientific I know, hence the small position
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,129
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:55am Oct 14, 2010 1:55am
i think it'll hit 75 soon. japanese are rich now, they can buy assets oversea with their yen.
  • #20,130
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:00am Oct 14, 2010 2:00am
If this morning uj already went down fastly, usually next open market uj would be pushed down deeper....
I hope i'm wrong this time...
  • #20,131
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:05am Oct 14, 2010 2:05am
Quoting Geelong_Cats
i think it'll hit 75 soon. japanese are rich now, they can buy assets oversea with their yen.
With a national debt at 260% of gdp, they won't be buying much!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,132
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:07am Oct 14, 2010 2:07am
Quoting realjumper
I have a small long in place at 81.25, and I'm reasonably comfortable with it. There is nothing to suggest that this long bear run is over, but..... Yen at near all time high, Aussie nearly at parity, swissy record high etc etc....plus, usd/jpy way oversold on all time frames.....eur/usd oversold and on and on and on.......something IS going to give.....sooner or later.

Not very scientific I know, hence the small position
You might have got it right, it's hard to imagine a lot more downside, but there is still a lot of risk here, small positions are the call of the day.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #20,133
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:09am Oct 14, 2010 2:09am
hello,

in my opinion once with stock indices break up the resistences and with gold posting new highs ... i consider that the scenario with usd/jpy drilling further it is unvalidated and we'll be no need for BOJ to enter in the market having in mind the current market enviroment... can be a little bit to enter long
  • #20,134
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:11am Oct 14, 2010 2:11am
Quoting Moneyright
You might have got it right, it's hard to imagine a lot more downside, but there is still a lot of risk here, small positions are the call of the day.
Small positions + SL if you're going to counter trend trade....the market will go wherever it want's.....it doesn't recognise historical lows!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,135
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:17am Oct 14, 2010 2:17am
Quoting realjumper
Small positions + SL if you're going to counter trend trade....the market will go wherever it want's.....it doesn't recognise historical lows!!
I think the Yen needs a little drink to cool it off a bit
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #20,136
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:21am Oct 14, 2010 2:21am
Quoting realjumper
I have a small long in place at 81.25, and I'm reasonably comfortable with it. There is nothing to suggest that this long bear run is over, but..... Yen at near all time high, Aussie nearly at parity, swissy record high etc etc....plus, usd/jpy way oversold on all time frames.....eur/usd oversold and on and on and on.......something IS going to give.....sooner or later.

Not very scientific I know, hence the small position
Yeah, there are a lot of 'walls' that look to be hit pretty soon - whether they'll hold/reverse the flow or burst, we'll have to wait, perhaps a day or two, or some sideways movement to get us to Nov 2 (QE2 day).

USDX is almost there; this might correspond to a EURUSD top of 1.4150, GBPUSD at 1.607, AUDUSD parity. Should the equity markets comtinue to take off re QE2, we might just keep the trend going - too hard to call, as too many correlations are broken.

In support of those (of us) who feel a dollar reversal is a smidge away: 3 reasons $ is about to rally, and Is A Dollar Rally About To Kill Risk Assets (predicts a 80%-100% chance of reversal.)
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  • #20,137
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:30am Oct 14, 2010 2:30am
The pathetic showing of the dollar continued to cause fits for the Bank of Japan who watched their yen appreciate to fresh 15 year highs near 81.20. The immanent testing of the 81.00 level will surely open the door to threats on the 79.75 all time low in the USD/JPY pair. While the possibility of BOJ FX intervention remains real, many traders are now suggesting that the central bank may not want to involve themselves in such actions ahead of next week’s G20 meetings in South Korea

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/ma...010-10-14.html
  • #20,138
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:35am Oct 14, 2010 2:35am
Quoting realjumper
Small positions + SL if you're going to counter trend trade....the market will go wherever it want's.....it doesn't recognise historical lows!!
Reljjla in my good Forex exp i learned History dont mean anything,future isnt based on History remember that thing it can help you...


Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #20,139
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:37am Oct 14, 2010 2:37am
Quoting realjumper
I have a small long in place at 81.25, and I'm reasonably comfortable with it. There is nothing to suggest that this long bear run is over, but..... Yen at near all time high, Aussie nearly at parity, swissy record high etc etc....plus, usd/jpy way oversold on all time frames.....eur/usd oversold and on and on and on.......something IS going to give.....sooner or later.

Not very scientific I know, hence the small position
mine not yet..going to c how this h4 close reaction for tonight NY open....going to watch how well US employment BS news going to occur...

bb in NY open....
  • #20,140
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:39am Oct 14, 2010 2:39am
I don't think BOJ will intervene on a big scale, saying that, there's an outside chance around the 80 level if it gets there I suppose, but there's too much political pressure on currency wars at the moment, and Noda's last effort seems to have only made matters worse.
I suppose the other way they could intervene is with drips and drabs into the market.

Even so, he's got some explaining to do (to us anyway).
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
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