Shesh look at it go. And to think I cashed out at 81.525
- #20,101
- Oct 13, 2010 8:38pm Oct 13, 2010 8:38pm
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Weebley Wobbly Timey Wimey stuff | 10,604 Posts
- #20,103
- Oct 13, 2010 8:45pm Oct 13, 2010 8:45pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,013 Posts
How about the US and JP have been planning this ruse since August? 1.Obama needs something to convince the voters that the economy is turmed around with his stimulus plan. Dems are in trouble with mid term election. Repubs take over congress and Obama is lame duck to the max.
2. Formulate a plan to kill the USD to cheapen all exports and drive the DOW and S&P up
3. Voters see DOW rally and think Obama is telling the truth for a change
4. US and JP conspire to kill USD
5. JP buys with xx billion at 82.88 and turns the table but
6. Then slowly...
this conspiracy therory reminds me of the ' Godfather - dark-room ' type scene, the one with the oldman -like- Greenspan , in the movie "Wall Street :Money never sleeps "
cheeky
- #20,104
- Oct 13, 2010 8:48pm Oct 13, 2010 8:48pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trading, Not Posting | 2,130 Posts
Given that 'saving face' is so central to Japanese culture, Noddy..I mean Noda, is looking pretty stupid about now.....what with all his rhetoric etc etc which amounts to sweet fa.
Would you like to be a fly on the wall in his office right now?......hope it's a ground floor office!
Not to mention, Noda went wagging his finger at Korea because they intervene??? Is this guy sane? Golden rule of politicking is saying nothing is better than something, if you're going to induce confusion and hate.
Also, since Noda & company have been watering down their definition of intervention, should they actually "react to large fx movements", what will that be - a prop up of 50 pips? 100 pips? They have totally confused the markets. If we can catch their "intervention" 80 pips in, and they only intend to catapult it 100 pips, will the average trader - retail or pro - be smart enough or able to get out? Does BoJ & Noda really want to screw the very people who are supporting them by going long? Yes, they'll be profiting, but that's what Noda is encouraging and actually wants, yet he could piss them off further!
I also think the less true to their intentions BoJ are, the more ire they're potentially going to collect from the trading community. In September 2000, the ECB was denying that they were worried abut the euro's weakness vs the USD. But in reality, they then DID end up intervening because they truly were concerned, and propped up the ailing euro.The market didn't like this - it was basically a case of a central banker saying one thing, not meaning it (lying) and doing the opposite. The intervention was a shock, and so the big boys purposefully chose to punish the ECB. Pros were furious and they kept shorting the euro. It ended up taking the ECB months of repeated and costly intervention before the ECB could stabilize it - it was a chicken and fox show, that the pros profited handsomely on. Oh, and the intraday volatility was huge: 500 pips - in a 15 minute span!
That was in 2000. The market is far more complicated today too, with algos, way more shorters, etc. And on the euro example above, you be the judge how applicable it is to our yen story today, and who's reacting to who, and how well?!!
- #20,106
- Oct 13, 2010 8:53pm Oct 13, 2010 8:53pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
Oh, and the intraday volatility was huge: 500 pips - in a 15 minute span!
________________________________
Errare humanum est
- #20,109
- Oct 13, 2010 9:01pm Oct 13, 2010 9:01pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #20,111
- Oct 13, 2010 9:15pm Oct 13, 2010 9:15pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,013 Posts
Yes exactly! Noda and co have been crystal clear in their threats, yet they have done nothing. To me it smacks of the type of incompetence that got Japan into this economic mess to start with!
one could label it as incompetence while another would label it as wise and sagely move ... can't please everyone ...
cheeky
.
- #20,112
- Oct 13, 2010 9:18pm Oct 13, 2010 9:18pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
besides this issue there are many other parameters to governing a nation ...
one could label it as incompetence while another would label it as wise and sagely move ... can't please everyone ...
cheeky
.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #20,113
- Oct 13, 2010 9:25pm Oct 13, 2010 9:25pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trading, Not Posting | 2,130 Posts
Up, up and away! Or, the Titanic version, also known as the spot rate on USDJPY: 81.163 as of ~30 minutes ago.
Also had a fellow trader point out this BoJ study which is about "whether official Japanese intervention in the JPY/USD exchange rate over the January 1999 to March 2004 time period is effective." Get it here or download attachment. I haven't read it, and am not sure if I'm going to dedicate any more brain cells to this ...
Also had a fellow trader point out this BoJ study which is about "whether official Japanese intervention in the JPY/USD exchange rate over the January 1999 to March 2004 time period is effective." Get it here or download attachment. I haven't read it, and am not sure if I'm going to dedicate any more brain cells to this ...
- #20,114
- Oct 13, 2010 9:30pm Oct 13, 2010 9:30pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Up, up and away! Or, the Titanic version, also known as the spot rate on USDJPY: 81.163 as of ~30 minutes ago.
Also had a fellow trader point out this BoJ study which is about "whether official Japanese intervention in the JPY/USD exchange rate over the January 1999 to March 2004 time period is effective." Get it here or download attachment. I haven't read it, and am not sure if I'm going to dedicate any more brain cells to this ...
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #20,115
- Oct 13, 2010 9:48pm Oct 13, 2010 9:48pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,013 Posts
True, but as far as Noda & co are concerned with all their rhetoric...aka....bullshit...... 'tis better to remain silent and be thought of as a fool, than it is to speak up and remove all doubt!!
will the wolf come or won't ... ?
that is the question .
if the wolf comes ,they will say , we warned u .
if it doesn't ,they might say , we don't owe anyone any free lunch ... we aborted it due to some new developments ... caveat emptor
cheeky
- #20,116
- Oct 13, 2010 10:13pm Oct 13, 2010 10:13pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
you win some , u lose some
will the wolf come or won't ... ?
that is the question .
if the wolf comes ,they will say , we warned u .
if it doesn't ,they might say , we don't owe anyone any free lunch ... we aborted it due to some new developments ... caveat emptor
cheeky
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
