USD/JPY Discussion

they just want to break the line..seems to be huge stops below it.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...41ac0a/jpy.gif

double bottom in place...

any one can confirm?

im still holding a short from last week but am in two minds about what to do. so much indecision in the market atm.

many thanks for your help

For the USDJPY 82.00 is the crucial point at the moment for weekly close. Reaction of price at this point will determine our direction. The line on the sand now for the weekly is 81.90. If this point holds and price successfully breaks 83.16, then a test of 85.00 area upward is huge possibility. If 82.00 eventually fails, then a freefall is a big possibility. The question is will the BoJ and its allies allow the freefall? Only time will tell. Weekly is currently at an indecision mode as depicted by the current star which keep changing.

The good news for long however is that, both the daily and weekly RSI are showing that the price is at rockbottom. The way with the highest probability in the long run, in my humble opinion, is upward. For long term traders, the first area to watch out for on the way up is the red horizontal line on Daily RSI, followed by the same line on Weekly RSI. This is waiting time. Who knows, a new low might be in the horizon. Whatever you do however, don't jump the gun!

Happy trading!

this remindes me, the time gbp/jpy touched 185 (yes, 185!), a few years ago. A bit below 185 the price starts dropping like free fall a few hundred pips (!). I have never seen this before in my life. I was shocked.

So IF there are long term investores who have stops around 80 on usd/jpy, we will see a battle, and if the price drops large below 80, we will know, that someone has lost a loft of money. I personaly would place my stop at 79 or 78, so price might drop 76, if SL is hit. This would be truly big movements.

I'm scalping UJ pretty good now. Every time it hits 81.75, I go long for 10 pips. (not go short at 81.85-90 though). This seems almost surefire for a while

take care there is double bottom on m30

Thank you! So what do you think it's going to happen?

I hope you don't actually believe this, because it's incorrect. Retail traders are collectively insignificant to the fx market. Recent estimate I've heard are they collectively are 5% of volume (seems high) - wiki puts it at 2% in 2006.

As wonderful as forexfactory is, the reality is that most are trading demo, and a majority are on micro accounts, usually on brokers where those micro orders don't even hit the liquidity provider. Even trading 20 to 50 full lots (at 1:100) in the lowest liquidity times (5pm-6pm EST) doesn't necessarily move the collective market - you're taking one direction, but someone else the opposite, then there's the bid/ask spread, is it a synthetic pair or not, etc. And it's not just one order that moves and maintains the price point; ie., you can spend a yard (1 billion $USD/EUR) to move it, and be hit with an opposite position, if not sooner then later.

Push the market 10-20 pips higher? Umm, isn't that what happens hundreds of time a day already? Some pretty good info on the wikipedia entry that I think everyone could learn from, including me: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market

Was just looking for some more detail and studies on this, and found the following case study (pdf included as attachment below) by Berkely on moving the fx market; haven't read it yet but plan to cover to cover; looks very interesting, and perhaps there's relevance in the following excerpt. Enjoy:

well.. just holding my longs...till then end.

as long as 8140 holding... things look abit better.

i have switched-off to all news ....

looks like everyone (news) now is talking of currency war ....

so, now that the 'Top Secret' is now an 'Open Secret' ... think we should switch-off the news for now ....

chartwise , very short term .... will it attempt a bullish ascending triangle on the hour chart ? .... perhaps , at least another 30+ pips .. to resistance 82.34 ?



the MA on the daily is just a line (MA1) .... for better visual of the line-chart


-

hourly

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er .. where ... ?


can post chart ?

I hope you don't actually believe this, because it's incorrect. Retail traders are collectively insignificant to the fx market. Recent estimate I've heard are they collectively are 5% of volume (seems high) - wiki puts it at 2% in 2006.



THE link's are so Educational economic information and i read them carefully since i always read these kinds of articles and love them they improve more my skills ,but i didn't know that the traders here are trading on demo or micro accounts ...

For me I trade in a real account and could reach alone to make a 500000 contract but i doubt that fxcm puts the trades in the market...

My point from the previous posts is that any investor or even group of people at a specific point with a group of leveraged account with different
brokers can move the market but their positions should directly be put at same time in the market with at least 500 million contract ,,, since the broker if you execute with a high leverage account has the ability to filter your position before execution and the bank ON THE OTHER HAND also could delay the execution ,for this reason ...
THE BANKS SHOULD BE REGULATED AND ALL IT's activities should be monitored this ensures that every trade done is executed directly and yes has an effect...
ALL STATISTICS ABOUT RETAIL EFFECT CHANGES SINCE RETAIL MEANS THAT THE TRADERS AREN'T ORGANIZED NEITHER CONNECTED BY ANY MEAN BUT MY POINT WAS OPPOSITE I AM TALKING ABOUT TRADING AS A CONNECTED GROUP SIMILARLY TO ANY LARGE FUND...FOR EXAMPLE
THE BANK'S USES THE DEPOSITORS MONEY TO LEVERAGE THEIR POSITIONS WE USE THE BROKERS CAPITAL TO LAVERAGE OUR POSITION BUT IF WE USE DIFFERENT BROKERS NO ONE COULD KNOW THAT WE ARE ALL AGREED AT A SPECIFIC POINT AND THAT WE HAVE AN AGREED RELATION SHIP HOW TO TRADE ...
YES RETAIL IS LOW SINCE MOST PEOPLE GIVE THE BANK'S THEIR MONEY INORDER TO MANAGE AND THAT'S WHY WE HAVE NO BIG EFFECT IN MARKET...
I WANT TO SHARE WITH YOU MY COUNTRIES EXCHANGE RATE :

IN LEBANON 1$ makes btw 1500 and 1507.5 it is fixed don't move ,we have an interest rate of 6% to 7% even more could be given by the bank's if the deposit amount is big the central bank monitors every minute move and leaves it fixed by intervening to buy or sell dollars and we can EXCHANGE how much amount we want but with real money without any leverage,every amount above 100000 $ exchanged in real money at a bank has an effect but because the volume traded every day and the central's bank intervention removes any effect , investors ALL OVER THE WORLD DO NOT TRADE OUR CURRENCY ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT RISKY THAT'S THE FAULT OF THE CENTRAL BANK AND LEBANESE BANK'S THEY PLAY SAFE WITHOUT ANY LEVERAGE ,INDEED INVESTORS should be happy taking 7% on their deposites WITH A FIXED RATE ...

YOUR'S SINCERELY

1. No body know how low UJ will go as well as reversal point....but historical say 79.80 (Yes 1995 one )

base on the chart trend still in bear...so what ever speculation is just a personal point of view...and from my humble advice...get out from trading this pair...n look at other pair like EU n GU.

no body know where it will go...who say so here n there is BS to me.....just my 2 cent...

chow

Dear traders!

Please don't wait for intervention and go long. I did that and get some loss, so I begun trade in U/J by fibonacci (that is my tehnical strategy) and got profit. So be careful and trust more your strategy not BOJ (and etc.) elite.

Have a good profit for you all.

Thank you very much for your thoughts. Yeah, I also think I shouldn't trade this pair, but just can't resist scalping 10 pips here and there -- JP's petite interventions are so predictable right after 20-25 pips down... I hope these interventions last forever

mate..historical of BOJ intervence never sucess...mine to tell me which one is success if u have any?

i agreed with fibo_trader...n again get out till everythings clearer....

good luck guy

As this intervene has totally failed, this pair should only drop lower and lower. I would love for the dollar to yen be 1:1. Love Japan.

....mate dun dream...

if u do notknow how is their game...and the answer for UJ sucked.....

take a look n read carefully this link...

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE...;pageId=207685

good luck