Let's start anew. Risk model for now - 0.33% balance per trade. This is enough to be more serious than demo trading, but not serious enough to do much damage on my account.
Igrok method only.
Igrok method only.
Unimportant fellow's equally unimportant journal v2.0
- #6
- Edited 7:29am Oct 11, 2010 6:27am | Edited 7:29am
- #7
- Oct 11, 2010 6:41am Oct 11, 2010 6:41am
Today's top was a third touch of a rising channel. The channel is not parallel and is slightly widening though, so my guess is that it is not worth buying from the lower TL that has two touches. I think a better bet could be trading on the break of the yellow TL, as it has three touches already. I tried to find a divergence target but there only seems to be a partial divergence on H3. If it were correct then we might see 1.33, though I'll have to get back to you on that. Also one more thing is that I do not like is today's range, if the break were...
- #8
- Oct 11, 2010 6:52am Oct 11, 2010 6:52am
Support on EURJPY. I wonder how crazy would it be to sell the break? The day's range is too big. I could sell with a stop above an intraday high but I have to wait until an appropriate high is formed. I could also simply sell with a fixed distance stop but I have mixed feelings about it. But most likely it wont be broken today and maybe I'll get a better location for a stop.
- #9
- Oct 11, 2010 7:23am Oct 11, 2010 7:23am
First order for the day: Selling EURCHF @ 1.3388, stop - 1.344 (intraday high), TP - 1.31.
The profit target is based on a divergence on H6. It's a non standard time-frame, but my opinion is that there will always be a divergence happening on some time-frame. The division into H1 H4 D1 and etc. is all artificial anyway.
The div is actually pointing to 1.307, but 1.31 is a nicer number.
Also there was a small break on the third approach of the lower border, but everything else looks good enough so I'm willing to take a bet.
The profit target is based on a divergence on H6. It's a non standard time-frame, but my opinion is that there will always be a divergence happening on some time-frame. The division into H1 H4 D1 and etc. is all artificial anyway.
The div is actually pointing to 1.307, but 1.31 is a nicer number.
Also there was a small break on the third approach of the lower border, but everything else looks good enough so I'm willing to take a bet.
- #12
- Oct 11, 2010 8:22am Oct 11, 2010 8:22am
Back in March 21, 2007:
I'm not sure if the 00:00 coincides with New Z. open time, it might be off by a few hours.
1. On my charts the open of the day and the high before the news came out are different prices. The difference was not that big but it existed. The market was trading above the open price.
2. The delay was caused by the obvious reason. The market was expecting a news scheduled for a particular time.
3. The change in the direction of the main move of the day just three hours before the end of the day and with 30 pips intraday range plus on a major news release practically guarantees the extension at least into ATR. Like shooting a fish in a barrell....
- #13
- Oct 11, 2010 11:14am Oct 11, 2010 11:14am
Was away and by the time I came back the EUR/USD tl got broken. So the only option left now is to wait for a retrace back to the trendline. Also I do not see a high close enough to the TL which could've been used as a stop, so if I had sold it would've been either with a 60 pip stop above the closest high or a fixed distance stop above the TL.
Also my EUR/CHF sell just got activated but the price jumped back on the TL. Yikes. The only thing I can do now is wait for the outcome.
Also my EUR/CHF sell just got activated but the price jumped back on the TL. Yikes. The only thing I can do now is wait for the outcome.
- #14
- Oct 13, 2010 7:31am Oct 13, 2010 7:31am
Here's a setup on CAD/JPY. It is high risk, as neither of the borders is confirmed with 3 touches. However, the lines are nearly completely parallel on fxTrade and completely parallel on MeatTrader4, so I'm willing to take a bet.
Two trades with divided risk:
Short at 82.04, SL1 - 82.22 (above TL), SL2 - 82.374 (above October 6th high)
TP - 80.2
Two trades with divided risk:
Short at 82.04, SL1 - 82.22 (above TL), SL2 - 82.374 (above October 6th high)
TP - 80.2
- #15
- Oct 13, 2010 7:49am Oct 13, 2010 7:49am
Order for 18.1 on USD/JPY, which also coincides with a triangle pattern. If it gets broken a sell position will be established @ 81.726, with a stop above the day's high at 82.02. TP - 81.25 (~90% ADR). It is relatively late to trade this template, but as the pair is at 33% 40ADR there should be an extension to one side or another. Only one way to find out.
- #16
- Oct 13, 2010 7:54am Oct 13, 2010 7:54am
My EUR/CHF sell was doing quite good yesterday, but not as quite today. The most it reached was roughly 1:3 R:R, and I do not want to close it prematurely. I didn't even move my stop yet, it's in the original position. If I get stopped out I get stopped out, who cares. Need to give this thing a chance.
- #17
- Oct 13, 2010 7:58am Oct 13, 2010 7:58am
Was away and by the time I came back the EUR/USD tl got broken. So the only option left now is to wait for a retrace back to the trendline. Also I do not see a high close enough to the TL which could've been used as a stop, so if I had sold it would've been either with a 60 pip stop above the closest high or a fixed distance stop above the TL.
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Also my EUR/CHF sell just got activated but the price jumped back on the TL. Yikes. The only thing I can do now is wait for the outcome.
Oh, Miss Market, you so fine, you so fine you blow my mind.
- #18
- Oct 13, 2010 8:06am Oct 13, 2010 8:06am
USDCHF intraday diamond in progress? Looks like it. If I'm not mistaken this is a single diagonal diamond, and as it is pointing up we should see it breaking to the downside.
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- #19
- Oct 13, 2010 8:11am Oct 13, 2010 8:11am
Now if that was a legit diamond on GBPUSD, then the question is if this is a legit diamond as well? Some similarity on the right hand side of the diamond.
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Those elusive diamonds.
- #20
- Oct 13, 2010 8:16am Oct 13, 2010 8:16am
Support on EURJPY. I wonder how crazy would it be to sell the break? The day's range is too big. I could sell with a stop above an intraday high but I have to wait until an appropriate high is formed. I could also simply sell with a fixed distance stop but I have mixed feelings about it. But most likely it wont be broken today and maybe I'll get a better location for a stop.
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