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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,021
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:13pm Oct 12, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Could somebody explain to me; why is JP gov doing this trivial interventions? I don't get the point. Are they going to selling yen to keep UJ around 82, until US$ gets weak by itself?

I remember someone on this board was telling that he had seen the same pattern when CHF tried to intervene. I checked the chart, but CHF did more than a couple of massive interventions.

Maybe JP doesn't want to follow the same path CHF went through...
Not sure what more can be said than what's been discussed (and discounted?) over the last many pages. I would think they are trying to change the course of the USD, by "helping" it along. Problem is, the USD is a bit like the Titanic. Whatever BoJ intended, they've not followed through; when a central bank doesn't have a plan and all angles covered, that's not confidence inspiring. The WSJ blog post by nedal26 points out the fallacies of failure.

Yes, SNB did 14 or so interventions; they spent 33% of their GDP and got nothing that stayed. Here's the post/chart courtesy of Fudomyo; pasted below as well.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1284523256
  • #20,022
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:31pm Oct 12, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting Beljevina

Yes, SNB did 14 or so interventions; they spent 33% of their GDP and got nothing that stayed. Here's the post/chart courtesy of Fudomyo; pasted below as well.
Wow... 33% Even though they didn't lose all the money they threw, Swiss must have lost a lot... sorry for the taxpayers....

Thank you for the info! We'll see what is going to happen to UJ soon!
  • #20,023
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:50pm Oct 12, 2010 3:50pm
'Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda reiterated Tuesday the government would take "decisive steps," including intervention, if necessary, to stem the yen's rise.'

It's going to happen, it's a question of when. I can't see the Yen weakening without further intervention to be honest. It seems a one way ticket for the Yen right now.
If we knew when the BOJ was going to intervene we would all be millionaires, no wonder Noda is being elusive.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #20,024
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:23pm Oct 12, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting Beljevina
Yes, SNB did 14 or so interventions; they spent 33% of their GDP and got nothing that stayed.
Who is Swiss and Who is Japan..

How you can compare ant with elephant? Check their GDP figures.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #20,025
  • Oct 12, 2010 5:30pm Oct 12, 2010 5:30pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Who is Swiss and Who is Japan..

How you can compare ant with elephant? Check their GDP figures.
I wasn't really comparing them ... just giving an example of the last time someone tried it. Proportionately though, thing's would not be far off as a comparison I'd think. (ie., CHF vs YEN daily volumes)

If you're saying Japan should spend more because they're bigger, but if the likelihood is the same result, then why throw money at intervention? One really has to look at the likelihood of success, have backup plan(s) and alternate measures. Ones that work. And will be followed through.

Intervention ain't what it used to be; ~6 years ago intervention didn't work for Japan either, plus the market had prolly half of the $4.3trillion it is today, and algos rule and drive the rates - the landscape has really changed, and there are tons more players, all contributing to the likelihood that intervention won't work.
  • #20,026
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:15pm Oct 12, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting Beljevina
all contributing to the likelihood that intervention won't work.
Depends what size of a intervention, last time when USDJPY drop to 0.75 or

around (I won't dig for exact year, too busy) BOJ hit so hard that it killed all short

for another 20 years.. This time, I think it's not just about BOJ but

Central Banks coordination effort, they know what they are doing..

As for me I'd be loading up from 80.50 and lower very hard, will

loan my house, if need it.. Got it? No pain, no gain..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #20,027
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:17pm Oct 12, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Depends what size of a intervention, last time when JPY rise to 0.75 or

around (I won't dig for exact year, too busy) BOJ hit so hard that it killed all short

for another 20 years.. This time, I think it's not just about BOJ but

Central Banks coordination effort, they know what they are doing..

As for me I'd be loading up from 80.50 and lower very hard will

loan my house, if need it.. Got it? No pain, no gain..
It's also risk aversion risk on/risk off - JPY

So don't think anyone want a strong JPY.

Most of the rally started after BOJ intervention last month.

I do think was something planned.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,028
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:24pm Oct 12, 2010 6:24pm
Who has suggestions on entry hear ?
who raped silver !
  • #20,029
  • Edited 7:52pm Oct 12, 2010 7:40pm | Edited 7:52pm
Quoting Beljevina
Yes, SNB did 14 or so interventions; they spent 33% of their GDP and got nothing that stayed.
That's true, but I can't help wondering whether SNB jumped the gun a bit when they had a go at intervention. I mean, they got into it while the eur/usd was in a very determined and strong downtrend. The 'roadblock' they attempted to put in front of the train was always going to be swept aside. All they achieved was to temporarily hold up the train. In my opinion, it was always going to fail.

With Japan though, they (if they do it) will be getting into it at record lows of USD/JPY, and I believe that they stand better chance of making it stick. Had they intervened at (say) 86.00, they may well have got spanked hard like SNB did. As it is, they got slapped around abit! If they let sleeping dogs lay for a while....assuming they can afford to of course, one of two things will happen.

1. Shorters are already too scared to hook into a short position and hold it....so in that sense, intervention is working. It's therefore possible that this pair *may* turn around of it's own accord. If that happens, job well done.

2. Let it drop to match the all time low and then start a series of smaller intervention steps to 'ease' this thing into a gradual reversal....rather than a sudden big hit, which is likely to fail.

IMO, Japan has a good chance at pulling this off if they are careful. If they went at it like a 'bull in a china shop' SNB style, they too would fail.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,030
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:16am Oct 13, 2010 4:16am
Why all this silence

Last post before 8 hours from now

8140 holding since three days in a row... on the other hand price not stable above 82 level...

nothing clear at all.
  • #20,031
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:31am Oct 13, 2010 4:31am
daily close at 8220 will make things look a bit better

8140 the only point worth watching now...the real battle there..it`s the key in my opinion. despite how things look in the chart.


http://www.mypicx.com/uploadimg/1162...10132010_1.gifhttp://www.mypicx.com/uploadimg/1162...10132010_1.gifhttp://content.screencast.com/users/...62ea1a/jpy.gif
  • #20,032
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:52am Oct 13, 2010 4:52am
why don't we all agree on a specific point and press buy but our total positions opened at the same time should be at least 500 million(usd) contract size , if all the brokers we are dealing with are really placing our orders in the markets ...

This would push the price between 10 and 20 pips higher ...

And then if anyone wants to take profit he could ...

IT would be so interesting to see the markets reaction...


I Need many traders so we can all perform this intervention at the same time....


NOTHING TO LOOSE...

WE WILL SEND A MESSAGE THAT TRADERS INSIDE THE FOREX FACTORY MOVED THE MARKETS...
  • #20,033
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:56am Oct 13, 2010 4:56am
Quoting nedal26
Why all this silence

Last post before 8 hours from now

8140 holding since three days in a row... on the other hand price not stable above 82 level...

nothing clear at all.
they all are to busy watching the trend....
  • #20,034
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:57am Oct 13, 2010 4:57am
Quoting realjumper
2. Let it drop to match the all time low
what is the all time low?

thanks
  • #20,035
  • Edited 6:07am Oct 13, 2010 5:40am | Edited 6:07am
Quoting yeri
they all are to busy watching the trend....
holding well so far even now.
  • #20,036
  • Oct 13, 2010 5:47am Oct 13, 2010 5:47am
Quoting rudolph
why don't we all agree on a specific point and press buy but our total positions opened at the same time should be at least 500 million(usd) contract size , if all the brokers we are dealing with are really placing our orders in the markets ...
most of the time trader is trading against the broker...no one can chalange market...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,037
  • Oct 13, 2010 5:54am Oct 13, 2010 5:54am
Quoting 00montie
what is the all time low?

thanks
ABout 79.80......it may have been lower, but my charts don't go back past 1976!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,038
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:06am Oct 13, 2010 6:06am
79.75

april 1995
  • #20,039
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:08am Oct 13, 2010 6:08am
Quoting realjumper
1. Shorters are already too scared to hook into a short position and hold it....so in that sense, intervention is working. It's therefore possible that this pair *may* turn around of it's own accord. If that happens, job well done.

2. Let it drop to match the all time low and then start a series of smaller intervention steps to 'ease' this thing into a gradual reversal....rather than a sudden big hit, which is likely to fail.

IMO, Japan has a good chance at pulling this off if they are careful. If they went at it like a 'bull in a china shop'...

Does anyone know any precedent that succeeded these types of intervention? (Either 1 or 2) Can JP really keep doing this until UJ eventually starts going up by itself? I have no idea how it works... I will be holding on my long position anyways....
  • #20,040
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:12am Oct 13, 2010 6:12am
Quoting Forexgogo
Does anyone know any precedent that succeeded these types of intervention? (Either 1 or 2) Can JP really keep doing this until UJ eventually starts going up by itself? I have no idea how it works... I will be holding on my long position anyways....
it might drag like this till 11-3-10 ....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
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