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  • #305,241
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting paul1
It definitely feels strong above 1.3900.

After the meeting minutes is the sentiment here bullish?

The cot did say smart money bullish.
It kind of has been all day bullish.

Usually - if paying attention - on candles length while they are crossing some round or important numbers (reliably starting from 5min tf, well sometimes 1min) is obvious that if candle's body is long(=strong) like in this case 5min overlapping bull candle was from 1.3874-13909, its hard to break and sell back.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #305,242
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Did you actually read the FOMC minutes ? they did mention q.e
- up move is silly ?
- your guess ? how can you know what big players think ?

You seem to have a strong bias. be careful.
Read the FOMC. there are clues there about FED language. and they are different since the last meeting.

compare the statement of aug 10 to todays.......then look at pa
  • #305,243
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting Alexgee
The chinese are the ones who want EUR at 1.60, that will destroy european export industry, opening the door for the chinese to get market share everywhere.

When a country like China has such vast currency reserves, they can manipulate fx rates to their own advantage. I know in their place I would.
Yup. Gator also thinks that way.
Makes logic. We will see.

Money has to find a home.

Is it AUD ? is it Gold ? is it EUR ? Is it JPY

It sure is not USD. for now.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #305,244
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm Oct 12, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
yep and all you hear about here is qe... meanwhile back at the ranch little billy bob lee is in the outhouse wacking off with a sears catalog.
and in china, they raised banking reserve requirements. will little billy bob get carpal tunnel? will commodity's get the shaft. will little billy bob get the shaft? with cheaper oil, will little billy bob even get carpal tunnel. stay tuned this thing usually does the opposite of what most think... btw atm we got a ll and a lh... in the face of technical chart reasons for correction.
Hi Gator,
agree with you, e/u going to 1.32...e/j 600 pip down.
  • #305,245
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:49pm Oct 12, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting pip1hunter
Hi Gator,
agree with you, e/u going to 1.32...e/j 600 pip down.
in conclusion, in light of how the market reacted after NFP on Friday October 8, 2010, I am inclined to think that there would probably be very little downside, if any, to the USD as result of FOMC Minutes. The logic is very simple, as the market has already priced in for QE2, therefore a confirmation of such decision, or bias towards it, will be regarded as “inline with expectation”. However, on the off chance that the FOMC is not so sure with its plan to go ahead on QE2, as Fed. Bullard implied in his interview with CNBC, or worse yet, a compromise of sorts that the Feds are looking at a gradual monthly purchases, we should see some strength returning to the USD… Remember, after an exaggerated move of 1400 pips on the EURUSD, a consolidation (albeit minor) will be close to 500 pips
  • #305,246
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:50pm Oct 12, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting mfoste1
compare the statement of aug 10 to todays.......then look at pa
what happen to you. you were bullish in the morning
took some profits ?

anyway i've look into that a few hours ago.

it's either 15-21 Jully or 2-10 august.

I can find a lot of reason for both cases.

we will soon find out.

Like I've said before.

Flat Tops produce drops. I see that on daily. 1.4 is also huge supply zone.

6h my fav got out of my channel today. also building a downtrend channel.

thanks for the feedback.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #305,247
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:52pm Oct 12, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting pip1hunter
in conclusion, in light of how the market reacted after NFP on Friday October 8, 2010, I am inclined to think that there would probably be very little downside, if any, to the USD as result of FOMC Minutes....
good point about gradual monthly purchase.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #305,248
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:53pm Oct 12, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting DMA Trader
what happen to you. you were bullish in the morning
took some profits ?

anyway i've look into that a few hours ago.

it's either 15-21 Jully or 2-10 august.

I can find a lot of reason for both cases.

we will soon find out.

Like I've said before.

Flat Tops produce drops. I see that on daily. 1.4 is also huge supply zone.

6h my fav got out of my channel today. also building a downtrend channel.

thanks for the feedback.
i was long from 3786 price came back to my entry to stop me out by 1 pip......then it proceeded 150 pips...im pissed
  • #305,249
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:54pm Oct 12, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Did you actually read the FOMC minutes ? they did mention q.e
- up move is silly ?
- your guess ? how can you know what big players think ?

You seem to have a strong bias. be careful.
Read the FOMC. there are clues there about FED language. and they are different since the last meeting.
Judging by your posts you also seem to have a strong bias, only bulish. I happen to have a strong bearish bias long term.

So what, that's not to say that I don't go long whenever I see the opportunity, I do it all the time since I trade small time frames. I play what my charts tell me, and I win more than I lose.

By the way, I read your posts with great interest. I appreciate your contribution to this thread, keep up the good work.

Alex
If only I knew then what I know now...
  • #305,250
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:55pm Oct 12, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting DMA Trader

thanks for the feedback.
I'm looking for a supply zone between 1.394-1.396 should see tomorrow on 1h or 15m. if that is the case. if not just a flat top for now near 1.4.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #305,251
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:59pm Oct 12, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting Alexgee
Judging by your posts you also seem to have a strong bias, only bulish. I happen to have a strong bearish bias long term.

So what, that's not to say that I don't go long whenever I see the opportunity, I do it all the time since I trade small time frames. I play what my charts tell me, and I win more than I lose.

By the way, I read your posts with great interest. I appreciate your contribution to this thread, keep up the good work.

Alex
my bias goes with the trend somehow.
can find excuses or opinions for both cases right now.
yet a favor the bullish case for now.

lots of pips to you.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #305,252
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:00pm Oct 12, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting mfoste1
i was long from 3786 price came back to my entry to stop me out by 1 pip......then it proceeded 150 pips...im pissed
i've remember you had a good bullish call today.

sorry for that.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #305,253
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:02pm Oct 12, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting DMA Trader
also no empire had ruled forever.
US loosing momentum.

last banking crisis that was successful dealt with was Sweeden . and that was painful.

US is doing the same as Japan expecting different results.
Remember the term Zombie Bank from Japan ?


we will see about that.

"doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"
einstein
apples to oranges. w/o oil the rest don't mean a thing. admittedly oil is low enough atm for the euro to make a run.. but once in the mid 80ties.. it will strangle the rest. for some reason oil is not making a bull run.. so at this level i cant buy ..still waiting for dt
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #305,254
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:05pm Oct 12, 2010 4:05pm
Quoting DMA Trader
i've remember you had a good bullish call today.
That was probably me Fasten your seat belts Lads and Gents,

EU train must leave the station.. Over 1.40 by tomorrow 8AM EST.

1.4050-70 look good to me.. Even Cable start to respond.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #305,255
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:07pm Oct 12, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting Pipwanderer
Gator, the eur was barely pulling up with 85% speculating a bearish look, a little hesitation here and there to around 7 am and this shot up like a rocket. You think it will continue its up trend...or this is just a little flinch
im waiting for agreement.. until i posted already what i saw.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #305,256
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:16pm Oct 12, 2010 4:16pm
Decided to let my position run overnight. Stuck a 40 pip trail on it, so time to relax.

See you tomorrow
  • #305,257
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:24pm Oct 12, 2010 4:24pm
R.I.P eur/usd, (It flatlined) lol
  • #305,258
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:27pm Oct 12, 2010 4:27pm
I remember from the days of July 9th/ 2007 to April 21st 2008, when EU made new highs, and kept running up, everyone was shorting the retracements hoping for a big run down, so they could claim they called the market top. I no longer see some of the people around here that were taking those shorts, but I cant really judge, as I did too, but I learned my lesson after being burned 3 times.

E/U has been in ultra-bullish mode sense June of this year. Sure it's no where near a double top to 1.6 or even 1.5, but to me I'd rather play the dips long. Only shorts I'll take will be off the 1hr.
  • #305,259
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:45pm Oct 12, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting big_pipin
I remember from the days of July 9th/ 2007 to April 21st 2008, when EU made new highs, and kept running up, everyone was shorting the retracements hoping for a big run down, so they could claim they called the market top. I no longer see some of the people around here that were taking those shorts, but I cant really judge, as I did too, but I learned my lesson after being burned 3 times.

E/U has been in ultra-bullish mode sense June of this year. Sure it's no where near a double top to 1.6 or even 1.5, but to me I'd rather play the dips long....
call me schizophrenic clown because I don't look like a forex expert
  • #305,260
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:49pm Oct 12, 2010 4:49pm
Hi friends,

I have updated my main count on my blog.

Here is the text, pictures on blog:

Hello to all,

have been busy lately so I was unable to deliver a new count.

My main count stands not invalidated yet. Room for interpretation comes with red wave 1 of green wave 3. I see it clearly as a leading diagonal. It is important to look at that moves on small TF like 1 or 5 min chart.

I have recently see counts, which places red wave 1 on the place, where I have a subwave 1 yellow. I think, that would be a bad count. If you are in doubt about a count, watch closely on Awesome Oscillator on different TF's and place the 3's on your chart. All other will come to you by itself :-)

The nature of the last leg up (red wave 4) is clearly corrective. Therefore upside is limited.

The impulse wave (wave blue c of 4) shows on 15min TF wave 1, 2 and a short 3. Now in wave 4 action (a triangel, where subwaves a, b, c, and d are build with the e to go (down). The final subwave 5 of this impulse can only be very short (because it has to be shorter tha 3). If subwave e travels beyond the start of wave three, we will see a failed fifht (reaching no high above wave 3).


Maybe, if I get time, I will present alternative counts later, too.

One of my favorite ideas is the alternative count of a really huge a) Leading diagonal or b) a triangel in wave 4 position of the upmove since end of August.

So be careful with trading the actual wave

Have a great evening, night, morning, noon or afternoon (depends of where you are on the world).

Infinitus
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