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The concept of "trend" which I cannot grasp

  • #81
  • Oct 9, 2010 9:13am Oct 9, 2010 9:13am
The next person that say `the trend is your friend ` will be eliminated ............
Try and use a 34 EMA. 55 EMA and a 200 EMA.
The 34/55 shows you the direction on. If the 34 ema is under the 55 ema the market is short on that spesifeic time time frame , if the 34 ema is above the 55 ema the market is long on that time frame.
Wild Dog
  • #82
  • Oct 9, 2010 11:16am Oct 9, 2010 11:16am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Heres the chart art you can see the downtrend line from the first chart in the 2nd.

I love it emerald. You are seeing things the way I do. Check out my chart. Much respect my man.


On respect to your chart weekly is a downtrend yes, monthly is an uptrend, I think this leg will give us final direction. I will be looking for shorting around the 1.45xx area mayb 1.46 (fakeout area). But I will look for rally signals around that area while price is turning over for a pullback on the monthly.

What are your thoughts?

Lets notice a pattern on my chart there are at least 2 points of contact that create supply and demand areas. This current leg would conclude the second supply area from and a lower high on the weekly from September 1994. I can not wait to get a short here.

By the way this chart was drawn 1.5 weeks ago so it does not have the current price on there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_1_4550_Target.jpg Size: 132 KB
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #83
  • Oct 9, 2010 12:28pm Oct 9, 2010 12:28pm
Quote
The next person that say `the trend is your friend ` will be eliminated ............
Try and use a 34 EMA. 55 EMA and a 200 EMA.
The 34/55 shows you the direction on. If the 34 ema is under the 55 ema the market is short on that spesifeic time time frame , if the 34 ema is above the 55 ema the market is long on that time frame.
Wild Dog

So i should short the market when 34 ema goes under 55 ema.

I should long the market when 34 ema goes above 55 ema.

Have you tested the results of this method for last 4 years? Let me know if it is a edge in trading.
  • #84
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:47pm Oct 11, 2010 9:47pm
Quoting goods
I love it emerald....
Awesome monthly chart! We're definatly approaching some big s/r levels in the coming months. I'm very interested to see if PA will hit your blue box that fast or if it'll slow down first.

I am looking for a peak around 1.43. I say that bc straight up would be around 1.45/1.46 but we just made a perfect (within 15 pips!!) AB=CD pattern on the daily along with a 61.8% retracement so I'm gunna guess that we move sideways or have a bit of a counter trend before moving higher. As we move horizontal/counter our falling weekly trendline will meet us a little sooner, pricewise.

I can't wait to see how this trend/s pans out. I believe news will def take effect around these pattern&trendline completions to help with price insight. Thanks for the reply!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily.png Size: 38 KB
  • #85
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:59pm Oct 11, 2010 9:59pm
I dont like to use MAs and the OP has stated he's against it too. What Wild Dog descibed is the basics of the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence indicator, with slower signals.
  • #86
  • Oct 12, 2010 7:26am Oct 12, 2010 7:26am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Awesome monthly chart! We're definatly approaching some big s/r levels in the coming months. I'm very interested to see if PA will hit your blue box that fast or if it'll slow down first.

I am looking for a peak around 1.43. I say that bc straight up would be around 1.45/1.46 but we just made a perfect (within 15 pips!!) AB=CD pattern on the daily along with a 61.8% retracement so I'm gunna guess that we move sideways or have a bit of a counter trend before moving higher. As we move horizontal/counter our falling weekly trendline will meet us a...

Looks like the pullback in the bigger picture is beginning. I am looking for a few hundred pips to the downside before the uptrend continues.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 343x pullback area.jpg Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu market declining_30_min.jpg Size: 126 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4h.jpg Size: 107 KB
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #87
  • Nov 1, 2010 6:42pm Nov 1, 2010 6:42pm
There are some times in life you have to admit when you are incorrect and just apologise. The funny thing about it all is when you acquire knowledge, it is only then you understand how really stupid you were because all the answers was right in front of you.

This post is for dopey, cindyxxx, emerald and other who tried to help.
What you have to understand is that this is not the exact way things work, however it is what makes it work FOR ME. It made things easier for me to understand.

I have searched and searched for the answer and the reality is the knowledge/information is always right infornt of you. You just have to be in the right place in your life to understand it.

So what is my conclusion after all this philosophy bullshit?


There is nothing as a OVERALL TREND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The fact of the matter is that the market (price charts) are fractal, so everything depends on the timeframe we select.

There exists trends inside trends and this is the concept behind fractal markets or what we call 'TRENDS'.

I am not going to give more information as I believe that if you really want to know you will first ask or just look for the information yourself. That's what I've done CONSTANTLY since the day I started this. Went thru' ALLOT of pages in google: "trend trading".. Maybe that'll give you an idea of how much infromation there is behind this.

I will give you something though. When the price action in your preffered timeframe starts getting inefficient there is a trend in a trend.
Think about it!


As I said before, this is not all of it. But it works for me.
  • #88
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:24am Apr 5, 2011 11:24am
Quoting Carnegie

What I am trying to say is this:
I see a market. It is making higher highs and higher lows. So I believe it's in an uptrend. Immediately when I enter the market to go long. It reverses.
Hey you know why? Cause other people is thinking the EXACT same thing. As soon as something becomes obvious, it will stop, thats the only thing you can be sure about.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #89
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:41pm Apr 5, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting kingfisher
Feel the markets. To detect trend is to feel the markets. This means using right side of brain for intuitive trading.

Using right side of brain correctly is as good as training it receives.

Once you go through intense training, you develop a feel which is subconscious competence. You will glance at price for 15 seconds and you know which side you will take a trade with risk management.

To begin in right direction, scrap all automatic tools and use brain which is most powerful processing machine in an entire universe.

The first step for...
Not a bad post i think. 500 hours is really nothing compared to what is potentially to be gained. I meditate in the forest and also its possible to control blodflow to the brain consciously, its really something people should be tought in school if anything.

I think there are two schools of well know "pattern" thinking about price. Both are relatively wrong and they are the small patterns with like doji, hammers and such and the bigger patterns with like head and shoulders, batman, cup and handle, wigwams and oh i dont fucking know i bet there are camels and friggin Mumar Ghadaffi as well.

I think there are mostly only tops and bottoms and bigger patterns but those i dont even know what they are or how they look i just let my subconsious deal with that while left side just place the orders. I will probably revise what i think about this in a while, say 2-4 months.

But i mean if people are happy with their patterns, im not inclined to disagree with them, they can do their thing and i can do mine.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #90
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:45pm Apr 5, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting hilmy83
it's all from observation so the source is me

but seriously i've been exposed to a lot of chart 'behavior' since i looked at 1min chart back in mid 09.
So the best way to learn more is just observe, and 1 min chart is i think the best place to start.

ps. if anybody try to say 1 min chart is all noise..then i say that they just don't like the music
I agree. I looked at S10 and S30, but id doesnt make sense since spread is to big to trade that.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #91
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:46pm Apr 5, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting silverheat

- you have to know why a trade works for you, just because price is moving is no reason to trade
No
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #92
  • Last Post: Edited Apr 6, 2011 4:29am Apr 5, 2011 12:51pm | Edited Apr 6, 2011 4:29am
Quoting sam1741
i am also confused about trend
when i start learning, i always see
"Trend is your Friend"...?

then later on only i have read some article that do not support that phrase
and there are no trend anyway..
It needs a definition to have a use. Without any sort of definition its jibberjabber, its nonsense.

One way is saying that an MA is trend, any MA. It is what it mathematically is like a couple of numbers added together and divided by the amount of numbers.

Im not saying it makes sense or can be used.


Edit: So for instance, lets assume that if MA 9, MA 21, MA 34 (exponential, close on all of them) is stacked untop of each other, we got an uptrend, and if stacked below eachoter, we got a downtrend. Thats not "THE WAY IT IS", its just a definition. And sometimes i use that definition, sometimes i dont. It can look something like this today:

Dont ask my why im shorting all the time cause i dont know i might as well be going long but im just not doing that for some reason i cant quite understand.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Going somewhere.jpg Size: 132 KB
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