USD/JPY Discussion

and intervene smoothly

I'm waiting at the sideline.


1995.04.01 Monthly Low 79.75 High 87.33

usdjpy isn't trading as usual, it's more trading to include possible BOJ intervention or not...

JP & US banks are closed today.

[quote=rudolph;4087498]THE MAIN REASON : japanese banks agreed to simply start an invisible intervention every time the market start a Dip without intending to change it's direction

This might be the case. I can see it on the chart -- it's going up and down around 82.

What's is the point for JP gov in doing this? To me, it is so pointless because it gets yen-buying-surges sooner or later -- see the first 1H bar at Sunday opening.

I think UJ is eventually going down to 80, even if JP keeps doing this rather ridiculous intervention.

Your thoughts?

Eventually maybe, but if you wake up tomorrow and watch UJ just

around 0.85 don't be surprised. Like I care about 200 pips DD..

Should be no problem, I'll just buy more..

I did it many time with EURCHF as well. BOJ will strike soon.

I hope that happens... We'll see

Agree, BOJ is on the "hunt", after a little holiday.

It's interesting (read: entertaining) to read poster's "gut feel" and desires on what BoJ is going to do. One thing is certain: they have been completely inconsistent in their actions, untrue to their word, and sending a wide range of mixed and confusing messages since Sept 15.

Only one party or very small group of people in Japan knows what will happen next, and it amounts to a crystal ball guessing game on everyone else's part. There are multiple ways to be pro and anti-intervention at any given time, which basically all amounts to guesswork, be it on the part of us amateurs, or the supposed 'experts.'

I've read nothing on the opportunity cost of either doing nothing, or, having done something, what the return (to Japan) was, ie., they spent >$20B last time, but are now below water on the USDJPY rate ... were there repatriation redemptions or other fx transactions that could be regarded as offset by the intervention cost? These are not small amounts for any entity, and, there has to be a business case for spending such significant amounts, in light of the speeding train that is the devaluating US dollar.

With this weekend's failed G7 currency discussion, an important subtlety that can be drawn is the change in Geithner's wording where he this time said "... efforts to ensure sustainable economic recovery are ‘‘at risk of being undermined’’ by the extent of foreign exchange intervention as countries with undervalued currencies lean against appreciation." (article quote from JapanToday.com)

The major difference of course is that it wasn't an outright anti-intervention statement to everyone, but he rather excluded Japan, given the wide ackowledgement that the yen has seen huge appreciation. One would conclude they'd turn a blind-eye to Japan if they intervened again.

Contrast that Oct 10/2010 Geithner statement to this Jan 21/2009 headline "Geithner tells Japan: lay off forex intervention" (USDJPY had reached a then new low at 87.2 before rebounding to 101, 3 months later)

So, there's hope for another BoJ intervention, but if it'll be at 81, 79, 75, 6x or elsewhere - and what strategy & timeline they'd employ - amounts to little more than a guessing game for us retailers, since frankly, I don't think Japan themselves know what to do.

Very good post

I agree with what you're saying, that no one seemed to have smacked Japan on the hand at the G7 meeting, for it's recent intervention in fx.....and therefore, as you say, it is as if they are willing to turn a blind eye to another move from BOJ. We have to remember that Japan doesn't intervene just 'because it can'.....it's doing it because it has to....there is very little 'wiggle room' left between economic recovery and economic disaster for their export led recovery. Add to that the other problems that Japan has, and we can see that they simply have to act. To not act, would cause a potential plunge into the abyss.

As for Timothy Geithner and his anti intervention warning to Japan, well, he is in no position to speak on the matter. United States has been printing dollars hand-over-fist recently, and is threatening to do so again. Whether it's called 'Quantative Easing', or just plain money printing, it is still intervention.

So Timothy Geithner ought to get his own house in order before concerning himself with other peoples houses!!

Well someone is doing something its on the rise

FinMin Noda back on the newswires

Same old rhetoric though....apparently

Return to 83.00 ??? Thoughts ?

Who knows? Just have to wait and see

Yeah, someone's doing some buying (Kampo again?), probably Japan based buyers due to absence yesterday & newswire Noda releases plus hope for intervention.

And, when it doesn't happen, watch the let down as USDJPY comes crashing down to 81.84, and lower ...

Sorry to say this...I have no confidence in BOJ. This will drop faster than it raises

I closed my position entry 82.20 sick of it holding and should have gotten in lower... I may go back in once japan opens

taken out first resistance around 8220...next 8260 friday high.

I wish i was awake friday night to buy at the low i would have been happy then

Much too early to be calling this the turning point, but worth watching none-the-less.....