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Sonic R. System

  • #14,781
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:45am Oct 11, 2010 2:45am
Hello Tah.

What do you think about usd/jpy long ?

Im going to take it.

Looks like a good hammers candles up
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  • #14,782
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:57am Oct 11, 2010 2:57am
Quoting Doncex
Hello Tah.

What do you think about usd/jpy long ?

Im going to take it.

Looks like a good hammers candles up
The EJ looks to be headed down. The UJ looks to be headed up. And EU is already heading down. If EJ drops, together with EU dropping, one would expect a rise in UJ. The only fly in the ointment is that UJ has already moved to fill the average range.

Of course, the move down looks very much like asian session PPMs sandbagging for a bigger move up. Could this be a day when stodgy old UJ actually has a bang up day blowing out it's average range? Even if not today, a long trade sure looks like it will bear fruit as the week progresses

Let the market decide. Trade what you see.
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  • #14,783
  • Edited 3:24am Oct 11, 2010 3:02am | Edited 3:24am
Quoting traderathome
Still preliminary, but I would be expecting a lower EP area to be created by PA; somewhere as shown on attached chart.
PA has created EP area now.....

Edit: And it is now a setup (2nd chart), and maybe moving.
Edit: PA created EP, moved thru it, and has retraced to area that would have been a better EP. Based on NVO and the retrace, this looks a consolidation area in advance of the move, and maybe a good place to add lower if entry was made at the higher EP (see 3rd chart).
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  • #14,784
  • Edited 3:55am Oct 11, 2010 3:45am | Edited 3:55am
Both pairs are pulling back up after an initial break down. The pullups are halting the fall at the nearest S&R area, possibly for consolidation before any more downside. The PPMs might keep PA here until the US traders come to the table. Then, a pop up and a run down? Maybe. Or, maybe the run down without being preceded by a good pop up. There is just no telling. But for now, if these two go into ranging then the US traders may be the catalyst that causes PA to break the range.

If you are in agreement with the thought that these two are in the SonicR short trade mode, then these pullups are giving a re-entry opportunity at/near the original EPs.

WARNING: Speculation.
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  • #14,785
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:41am Oct 11, 2010 4:41am
These H1 charts show a clear picture. The Dragon is already angled down. PA has broken down out of the dragon, made a bit of a run, which was halted/rescued. Now PA is consolidating, with the EP area being the upper area of the consolidation. PA may continue consolidation until the US traders do something with it.

The white lines are about where a good re-entry short would be. And the US traders could make PA rise before any more significant downside, which could move PA up to/thru these white line areas.
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  • #14,786
  • Edited 9:54am Oct 11, 2010 9:34am | Edited 9:54am
Finally, the PPMs fully loaded and ready for the pump?

EDIT: It appears to be on the move.....(2nd chart)
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  • #14,787
  • Oct 11, 2010 10:28am Oct 11, 2010 10:28am
Half number resistance appears to have become support. Added TP2 in case move picks up steam. SL has been raised from original, and one could move it to BE+ since half number appears now to be support....you just never know if the PPMs will execute a stab back down to take out long stops.
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  • #14,788
  • Edited 12:58pm Oct 11, 2010 12:21pm | Edited 12:58pm
The time for trade entry is finished. The trades are running, but SLOW DAY is the bi-line. Or we might use the words "reluctant runs" to describe PA.

Why does this make me think on the subject of a possible MAJOR REVERSAL in the PAIRS? Is it because for those pairs that have been run up over past months, PA is not giving up the highs easily? Is it because for those pairs that have been run down over past months, PA is not giving up the lows easily? Could it be the PPMs will "milk" the highs/lows for all they are worth for a while more.....small, quick selloffs/buyups followed by the prices being "worked" right back again to the starting gates?

Anyway, trades are running.....and maybe now they should be left to run into tomorrow. This is not a bad start of the week. And the PPMs may have already shown their hand for the week. Yes, there could be pullbacks on these trades going into tomorrow's asian session, etc., so the decision is whether to take profits and possibly re-enter tomorrow, or just let 'em ride. But, 100+ pips for the day ain't bad.....SonicR!

Let the market decide. Trade what you see.
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  • #14,789
  • Edited 6:10pm Oct 11, 2010 5:45pm | Edited 6:10pm
The first session trades are closed for a total of 138 pips profit. PA was very reluctant to move this session, and it has me thinking additional pullbacks to the moves might occur in the early 2nd session of the week.

If PA moves, ok. Profit has been made. If PA pulls back, I can re-enter what looks good after a new assessment. Things were so flat, maybe next euro/US sessions will have them looking totally reversed again.
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  • #14,790
  • Oct 11, 2010 6:20pm Oct 11, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting traderathome
In the attached black M15 you can see the highlighted candle making a low out of the Dragon right at the US open. It would be two more TFs before price passed that low, but that low would be the reference for EP, where I have placed a white line. It was the first tall candle that passed that low. That was the candle that gave the SonicR entry. Does this help?

Edit: Added two more charts. The expanded M15 shows The WAVE using the FE study to draw the first two legs of it. The FE study provided confirmation of an H4 support area as near the FE 200%...

Thanks for the pictures.
Sorry if I stress on this point but as a general rule in case of long bars piercing the dragon (15 pips or more for example) the entry point is still 5 - 7 above or below this candle?
  • #14,791
  • Edited 7:34pm Oct 11, 2010 7:11pm | Edited 7:34pm
Quoting selenic
Thanks for the pictures.
Sorry if I stress on this point but as a general rule in case of long bars piercing the dragon (15 pips or more for example) the entry point is still 5 - 7 above or below this candle?
When you say, "...long bars piercing the dragon..." it gives the image of a candle going into the Dragon, not out of the Dragon. So let's be clear on this point; it does not matter how long the candles are when they EXIT the dragon.

What we look for is the angle of the Dragon, a candle coming out of the Dragon and closing. If the angle of the Dragon is up, and subsequent PA pushes past that "upwards exiting candle", then we may have a setup. If the angle of the Dragon is down, and subsequent PA pushes past that "downwards exiting candle", then we may have a short setup.

Do not be concerned about how far that "exiting candle" extends past the Dragon. Just accept that, all other things being equal, a candle that closed near the Dragon represents a better setup than one where the candle closed far from the Dragon.

The entry should be several pips beyond the 'exiting" candle. In post #12 Sonicdeejay said "few pips". And in post #14 he further detailed that he likes the entry price to end with the number "7" or "4". It reads, "... I like number like .7 or .4 ...", He did not mean to place the EP 7 pips beyond the exiting candle.

Attached is an H1 chart wherein the Dragon is configured to it's M15 shape. I have marked with white lines the SonicR entries for the past 5 days, and my proposed SonicR long EP for today. I think from this, you can easily see that the length of the "exiting candle" does not matter. It is the WAVES and the angle of the Drgaon that matter.

Hope all this helps.
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  • #14,792
  • Edited 9:00pm Oct 11, 2010 8:48pm | Edited 9:00pm
i have circled 2 areas, 1st one you took the trade, second one was almost identical setup to the 1st one yet it wasnt considerd a sonic setup and it actualy whent against it. can you explain why you wouldnt have taken the trade on the second circle. im finding it very hard to tell apart the W shape from the M shape.

On the second pic,,, number one is more like a M shape, thats for short right, but you took a long.

On the second pic,number 2 is a clear example of how confusing it can be. it can be both M or W depending at how you look at it.
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  • #14,793
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:26pm Oct 11, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting only20gp
i have circled 2 areas, 1st one you took the trade, second one was almost identical setup to the 1st one yet it wasnt considerd a sonic setup and it actualy whent against it. can you explain why you wouldnt have taken the trade on the second circle. im finding it very hard to tell apart the W shape from the M shape.
You asked a very good question! Note the time vlines in the background. You will see that all of the indicated SonicR EPs were during the SonicR "Approved Hours" span for entering a trade. And the "entry" you picked out was not!

Today is a good example, also. The first proposed SonicR EP was high out of the Dragon, AND not during the "Approved Hours". And, as you can see, that is already "X'd" out in favor of a subsequent lower EP. But this one too, is not during Approved Hours. All of which points out the significance of paying attention to the SonicR Approved Hours for entering a trade. If we jump in beforehand, we may be taking an EP too far from the Dragon; that by waiting we may get a better setup! Not only that, what looks like a "long" now, might be a "short" by the time Approved Hours rolls in.

In the chart, I have color coded the WAVE to each EP. Hope this helps.
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  • #14,794
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:49pm Oct 11, 2010 9:49pm
ahh yes, didnt think of that. thanks
  • #14,795
  • Oct 11, 2010 11:20pm Oct 11, 2010 11:20pm
Hi TAH
I have only recently stumbled on this fantastic thread and I am slowly wading through it.
I have got the general gist of the thread and now I am trying to learn the nuances. I have worked out most things but could you or someone correct me if I am wrong
FE = Fib expansions?
ep = entry point?
" the PPMs fully loaded and ready for the pump?" I have no idea what this means.
ppm=?
pump?
Thanking you
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #14,796
  • Oct 11, 2010 11:26pm Oct 11, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting Minka
Hi TAH
I have only recently stumbled on this fantastic thread and I am slowly wading through it.
I have got the general gist of the thread and now I am trying to learn the nuances. I have worked out most things but could you or someone correct me if I am wrong
FE = Fib expansions?
ep = entry point?
" the PPMs fully loaded and ready for the pump?" I have no idea what this means.
ppm=?
pump?
Thanking you
FR = Fib Retracement Tool/Study
FE = Fib Expansion Tool/Study
EP = Entry Point
PPM = Professional Price Manipulators (tongue in cheek)
Pump = a price run/drive/move upwards where trading starts in earnest at the top, AFTER the price has been pumped. This usually means the "professionals" are dumping/selling off, and drove the price up soley for that purpose.
  • #14,797
  • Oct 11, 2010 11:47pm Oct 11, 2010 11:47pm
Thanks Muchly
back to reading for now
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #14,798
  • Edited Oct 12, 2010 12:04am Oct 11, 2010 11:47pm | Edited Oct 12, 2010 12:04am
Entered per attached chart. A few minutes before approved entry hours. High Impact release in less than 4 hours.
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  • #14,799
  • Oct 12, 2010 9:30am Oct 12, 2010 9:30am
Hello, I have the idea to be long on EU. EMA 89 is bearish, but the dragon is at 3 o'clock. On the 15m I drawed some bullish waves. The price have found support around the whole number (1.3800).

On the 4h the uptrend is still there imo. The price went back to fib 61.

A possible target could be the 1.39xx.
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  • #14,800
  • Oct 12, 2010 5:54pm Oct 12, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting traderathome
When you say, "...long bars piercing the dragon..." it gives the image of a candle going into the Dragon, not out of the Dragon. So let's be clear on this point; it does not matter how long the candles are when they EXIT the dragon.

What we look for is the angle of the Dragon, a candle coming out of the Dragon and closing. If the angle of the Dragon is up, and subsequent PA pushes past that "upwards exiting candle", then we may have a setup. If the angle of the Dragon is down, and subsequent PA pushes past that "downwards exiting candle",...
Thanks again Th!
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