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  • #304,321
  • Oct 11, 2010 1:45pm Oct 11, 2010 1:45pm
I think a retrace to Daily 8/8 @1.3672 from +1 overshoot is likely.
Murrey Math on every TF + Divergences on higher TFs
  • #304,322
  • Edited 2:04pm Oct 11, 2010 1:46pm | Edited 2:04pm
Quoting cannarek
looking too perfect but it makes sense i must admit. lets see...
Thanks abcd , just another way looking at it . nothing happened yet , price need go & hold below 3832 or from around the level to top 4038 ( not like go there soon but 3932 -50 ok ) to have sell off more significant .another if the mouth open wide enough ?
fonty
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #304,323
  • Oct 11, 2010 1:58pm Oct 11, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting fontu
Thanks abcd , just another way looking at it . another if the mouth open wide enough ?
fonty
Swiss Army Bears LOL
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #304,324
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:05pm Oct 11, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting behman8850
so whats your saying is it will go up??
here is the chart with perfect h4 swings. Trading can be done in many ways. Every trader needs to develop his own trades. Swings on H4 timeframe are not daily(intraday) trades. They aim for higher(or lower ) targets and I use wider s/l usually a little below last swing point.

In this chart there is an example ( i drew it manually) what level is tolerated on h4 TF upswing. As long as the price reaches dynamic support or at the most two candles are below it it is tolerable. I dont allow to make entries if PA reaches blue SMA. I dont want PA anywhere near 100 SMA. If SMA crosses themselves and PA goes near 100 SMA there could be a possible trend change ( reversal)

The sequence is : thrust,pullback,thrust,pullback...if it dips below and near 100 SMA it could mean a possible reversal. Then we need to see patterns. If I notice W patttern ( 1-2-3 or A B C) bullish pattern then I may resume following the trend because W pattern is a bullish pattern.

I am talking about swing trading, not intraday trading based on Black Widow ™. In order to swing trade a trader needs a good equity support. Targets for swings do not have MM levels applied. If we follow the trend we talk about High probability trades. Everything besides it is a low probability and I use another method on m5 chart to scalp retracements
The drawing may be somehow "raw" but it represents the swing theory I have been talking about.
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  • #304,325
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:05pm Oct 11, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting Mikispag
I think a retrace to Daily 8/8 @1.3672 from +1 overshoot is likely.
Yes
  • #304,326
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:07pm Oct 11, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting bluesoul
Swiss Army Bears LOL
May be , may be not still but avoid call it swiss army as it very active in closing trades very fast even you already diabled hurriedly .
lol .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #304,327
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:10pm Oct 11, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
I'm not even thinking about shorting the E/U until GOLD stops flying.
I think you're right, there's a perfect correlation right now, but we might see some weakness for the EURO(P.I.G.S.).Over 1.40 is a resistance similar to 1400 on gold.
  • #304,328
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:11pm Oct 11, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
yep.. its been talked about..
let's go boys(bears)
  • #304,329
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:13pm Oct 11, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting T@rantula
here is the chart with perfect h4 swings. Trading can be done in many ways. Every trader needs to develop his own trades. Swings on H4 timeframe are not daily(intraday) trades. They aim for higher(or lower ) targets and I use wider s/l usually a little below last swing point.

In this chart there is an example ( i drew it manually) what level is tolerated on h4 TF upswing. As long as the price reaches dynamic support or at the most two candles are below it it is tolerable. I dont allow to make entries if PA reaches blue SMA. I dont want PA anywhere...
we can also break the trendline that everybody is watching and go to a different angle since this one is not sustainable on the long run.

so from such a sharp rally we go to a slope with lower angle but still go bullish. and ma's soften.

time will tell
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #304,330
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:17pm Oct 11, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
yep.. its been talked about..
Hey gator,
is this down move still significant since it's over a holiday with little volume at all? I would originally think it presents a great buying opportunity with a drop like this on lower volume..then again i'm wrong quite often
assume the position...whichever that may be
  • #304,331
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:20pm Oct 11, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting Alin.puian
let's go boys(bears)
i still got a pending short at 4038.. a decent scalp north at 3855 may be in the cards also. i still have a pending there also. but if the cic on ea daily gets below 100 i will short. the usdx has already got about -100 a bullish usd sign
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #304,332
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:20pm Oct 11, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting DMA Trader
we can also break the trendline that everybody is watching and go to a different angle since this one is not sustainable on the long run.

so from such a sharp rally we go to a slope with lower angle but still go bullish. and ma's soften.

time will tell
Exactly...we could go, but the trendline is not broken yet. Even if it reaches red SMA it is tolerable with 2 candles below it. Its a normal retracement then. But if the SMAs cross and PA reaches 100 SMA, we can think about reversal

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  • #304,333
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:22pm Oct 11, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting atate49
Hey gator,
is this down move still significant since it's over a holiday with little volume at all? I would originally think it presents a great buying opportunity with a drop like this on lower volume..then again i'm wrong quite often
Want me buy too before go but why not tp me at 3833 ?can take it here but tp set for other reason , so to wait . still 1:40hr close H4 candle below 3871 .fast pa my ache hurting me alot or to wait next day with pendings there .no jumps again 3860/57 please!if to do there not 64 .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #304,334
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:23pm Oct 11, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting T@rantula
Exactly...we could go, but the trendline is not broken yet. Even if it reaches red SMA it is tolerable with 2 candles below it. Its a normal retracement then. But if the SMAs cross and PA reaches 100 SMA, we can think about reversal
we're in the same boat !
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #304,335
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:23pm Oct 11, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
don't worry about it.. its coming.. i hate qe bs talk.. but its here and baked in the pie. we got japan the u.s. and GB talking qe... u.s. qe automatically puts china in the devalue circle, because of usd peg....
Hi Gator,

it was one of those scalps which got not on track, and just in the moment I pushed the cover buttom - WHAM

At these days most people are in their EUR hype. Reason for that is, that they claim, that FED inflates the money.

But inflation is measured in outstanding money PLUS debt.

But debt in USA, no the whole world, outweighs the liquid money by a factor of 10-20

Right now we see credit default everywhere. This money vanishes out of the system, thus money in the system gets more valuable. That is deflation.

When things heat up, FED can not print money fast enough - so deflation gets reality.

And when I look around here in Germany or Europe, I do not know, which currency is less ill.

But I know one fact for sure: Most of the debt worlwide is denominated in USD. When a part of these fake USD vanishes, than the rest of the USD will be much stronger.

I do not know, why people will not face this reality. Maybe we are slaves of the system, a system that has taught us since centuries that you can spent out of a crisis. But you have to produce out of crisis.

But back to trading:

The way for today and the next days is:

a little bit lower, than up, but will stay under 4029, then down to south of 1.18
  • #304,336
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:24pm Oct 11, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting atate49
Hey gator,
is this down move still significant since it's over a holiday with little volume at all? I would originally think it presents a great buying opportunity with a drop like this on lower volume..then again i'm wrong quite often
the trend has been up.. i cant fault anyone for going long. i am waiting for one more signal. i have not got it. i myself may long at 2855 if i don't have a signal if we get there. im gonna play it by ear..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #304,337
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:27pm Oct 11, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting DMA Trader
we're in the same boat !
If the boat sinks I hope we wont end like DiCaprio
  • #304,338
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:29pm Oct 11, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting T@rantula
If the boat sinks I hope we wont end like DiCaprio
let's hope we jump before this boat sinks
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #304,339
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:31pm Oct 11, 2010 2:31pm
xaueur relating to eurusd, just a nice spot on daily, feel to break it or not.. interesting

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instead of $ fall, € was keeping its gold value last month
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #304,340
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:31pm Oct 11, 2010 2:31pm
cic below daily 100 im short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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