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  • #304,261
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:02pm Oct 11, 2010 12:02pm
Holy Moly,

to much discussion regarding counts

On 15min and 30min TF one more low to make
  • #304,262
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:03pm Oct 11, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting egkid
Can i ask, Depends on what u have this view? And depends on what u know The Time?
Unless you both composer I call it The Rhythm of the market

if nothing changes (trend most important) based on same price action for E/U we should get this. it's not like I'm pointing to 1.7

So another 450 pips in 3 weeks seems achievable even if we do have a correction.

it's not about time calculation it is about how this price action from September to today worked.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #304,263
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:05pm Oct 11, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting DMA Trader
it is not the FOMC statement. it is the FOMC minutes. a non event in my view.
only some spikes. most of the FED gov. go for Q.E while Hoening says raise interest rates. yada yada.

2c
Agreed but any reminder of QE2 even just through the minutes will only help the EUR bulls IMHO if I have gotten back above the levels that I am keeping an eye on. The minutes released tommorow to me will just be further confirmation if I am back in a EURUSD long.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #304,264
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:08pm Oct 11, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting Masrim
Hmm seems some people here that though the ECB would use media and propaganda to keep the euro in check were right. Just when monsieur Juncker was saying he doesn't like euro above 1.40, this piece of news is released just so conveniently:
http://www.forexlive.com/138412/all/...ing-euimf-debt
What he likes and what market (speculators) does two different thing in reality. 1.41 and above certainly is possible in short term (a month or so) but how long stays up there is something difficult to answer at this stage. Regardless of corrections EUR looks like destined to hover around 1.50 -1.60 for sometime.
  • #304,265
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:09pm Oct 11, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting pres78
Agreed but any reminder of QE2 even just through the minutes will only help the EUR bulls IMHO if I have gotten back above the levels that I am keeping an eye on. The minutes released tommorow to me will just be further confirmation if I am back in a EURUSD long.
E/U has huge expectation with Q.E. i think there is more into E/U than q.e.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #304,266
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:10pm Oct 11, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

2010-10-11 _ zigzagtracktracer (03h28 CET) EUR-USD 015min _ 000.GIF (34.1 KB)


...

RECAPITULATION :

Highest been given has been 1.40130 today ... lowest been taken has been 1.38664 after this high ... (until now)

Risk is growing at the downside ... while below 1.4030 - 1.4066 ... possibly 1.3945/ 40 ... Wellington low again ... during Asian Session ...

Cross of below 1.3916/ 01 ... and one more sell off towards 1.3876 - 1.3847 ... or even towards 1.3795 - 1.3765 should be possible then ...

Only a break of 1.4066/ 77 limits would be a bullish trigger again ...

We are selling ... and a cross below 1.3916/ 01 is expected later then ...

Schaun wir mal ...

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif 2010-10-11 _ zigzagtracktracer (18h44 CET) EUR-USD 015min _ 000.GIF (39.6 KB)

Elliott :

Projection : Correction ZigZag 1.3879 + 1.3833 from 1.4029 ...

Note : bearish parabolic SAR in both settings triggered ...

Entry stops and acceleration below 1.3949, Key points below 1.3949 ...


Bis denne ... palim palim ...


;-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-11 _ zigzagtracktracer (18h44 CET) EUR-USD 015min _ 000.GIF Size: 40 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #304,267
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:13pm Oct 11, 2010 12:13pm
We have now broken below the lower channel bull trend line from 10/09/10. I am holding all shorts above this level with small locked in profit.

The past couple of hours have seen support from the upper bull trend line from 21/05/10. A daily close below this level could be viewed significantly bearish at least for the immediate term.

If your unsure wait for better confirmation! I will probably get bullish again > 1.3930 / 1.3950.

Harry
  • #304,268
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:14pm Oct 11, 2010 12:14pm
H1 failed close below 3872 but new H4 & H1 candle may so to close to the full dept of the supply zone before a good bounce likley.
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 14 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #304,269
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:14pm Oct 11, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting Lorna
There must be something wrong with the way I think; I'm such a shit trader

I'd hung on to those 2 longs in EU all day, (with another in AUD/USD) till that last bear surge and closed all 3 out thinking I just couldn't let the losses grow any bigger. Finally putting on a short in AUD/USD (why not!!) so naturally the direction immediately changed.

Why can't I see where the trend is going? It's been going down all day, and really doesn't look that different now. How am I ever going to get the hang of this before it's too late?? ...
I am quite new ,few months but whats helping me focus is some advise I've taken in :-
1) look for shorts below daily open
2) 200ema below that too
3) pull a fib from daily high low ,if it stays below around the 50% keep short bias
4) pull fib from recent high lows same thing around the 50% lvl
5) keep eye on the legs up/down lower lows lower highs.
6) use minimum lot size dont aim to make money aim to get penny profitable then try scaling up.
7) enter with bear minimum and only add when first lot is at break even.
8) work out how many pips your average winner is and your stop has to be at least 50%.
If your losing money trade micros.
If you get consistantly profitable trade as big as possible then retire .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #304,270
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:15pm Oct 11, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
wider stops. less leverage.. = more profit.. and more sleep.
My stops were far too wide; they'd started out at 20 each but, 'thinking' there had to be support on the pair somewhere, I widened them to 107 & 121 (bloody stupid I know). As it is none of them would have been stopped, even the A/U is now pretty much back up to my BE. I should have let the initial stops be cut off and changed my direction to BEAR, it's not as though it wasn't going that way long enough.

Definitely need more sleep; time to dream and ponder how I really ought to trade. It's the stupidity of it all that annoys me. I've just been up the whole night and day and come out worse off than I started.

Guess it's time to rest and see if anything looks better after the 8pm rollover (maybe that's just my broker) LOL
  • #304,271
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:16pm Oct 11, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting T@rantula
Its H4. besides intraday I do swing trading. Its all written in the charts. take a look. Take a look at my swing trade projections. No need to thank me

Attachment
Sorry I'm not so smart as you ,Your chart say we in uptrend and now on strong S but i didn't get it how u know the date and the point? Do use Math for each move to up?Why not 1.4180 or 1.42 ?Do you know yearly [email protected] beside psychological point?

If you use secret way i understand but tell me u can't say it
  • #304,272
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:18pm Oct 11, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting egkid
Can i ask, Depends on what u have this view? And depends on what u know The Time?
Unless you both composer I call it The Rhythm of the market
good point ????!!
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #304,273
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:18pm Oct 11, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting Lorna
There must be something wrong with the way I think; I'm such a shit trader

I'd hung on to those 2 longs in EU all day, (with another in AUD/USD) till that last bear surge and closed all 3 out thinking I just couldn't let the losses grow any bigger....
You are not alone, i'am here with you though you far away, you're always in ......
  • #304,274
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:19pm Oct 11, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting Lorna
My stops were far too wide; they'd started out at 20 each but, 'thinking' there had to be support on the pair somewhere, I widened them to 107 & 121 (bloody stupid I know)....
Hi
Have u got my previous post?
BTW it's look like kidding but believe me it was one of most important lesson to me in trading.
  • #304,275
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:19pm Oct 11, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting pres78
I think the safest level to get back in long is with a close back above 1.3955 as this level corresponds with the daily H/L 61.8 fib, previous Week H/L 80.9 fib and recent swing high / low 61.8 fib. It is also above the daily pivot level.

May also consider getting back in if we close back above the daily pivot, recent swing H/L 50% fib and daily H/L 50% fib levels at 1.3930-1.3950.

Have to keep a close watch on the PA as see what Asia and London Sessions produce before the FOMC statement.
If I get back in long at the levels above I will be targeting first 1.4030-1.4040 (8/8 MM on 1hr and the 100% fib for both recent swing high and last week), second I will be looking for 1.4050 (134% fib for today's high, will adjust tommorow as needed) and then 1.4080 (155% fib for today's high). Future targets up would be 1.4100 which could be heavily defended. A break of that level would open 1.4130, 1.4160 and 1.4240. There are many daily, weekly and the monthly R1 levels between here and there though so it could take some time and I would like to see a clear break and close above 1.4040 to confirm any further moves up.

Just my take. I am not yet looking for anything longterm downwards.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #304,276
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:21pm Oct 11, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting infinitus
On 15min and 30min TF one more low to make
How deep ?
Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
  • #304,277
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:21pm Oct 11, 2010 12:21pm
Hi driver55 i see u r online, Just thought to say hello and BTW thanks for valuable post u do
  • #304,278
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:21pm Oct 11, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting DMA Trader
E/U has huge expectation with Q.E. i think there is more into E/U than q.e.
Most definately.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #304,279
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:22pm Oct 11, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting paul1
I am quite new ,few months but whats helping me focus is some advise I've taken in :-
1) look for shorts below daily open
2) 200ema below that too
3) pull a fib from daily high low ,if it stays below around the 50% keep short bias
4) pull fib from recent high lows same thing around the 50% lvl
5) keep eye on the...
Oh cool, thanks Paul. There's a lot of sense in your steps. Not sure I know how to use all of them, particularly the fibs but I will give them another go. Your 7) is a particularly good point for me to note, I have a bad habit of adding to the trade after it has gone wrong but 'kinda getting back there'. I should know how many times that doesn't work!!
Guess one of my biggest mistakes is trying to do this as a means to make a living rather than, as you say, starting out small till I get the hang of it. So back to the drawing board - after a rest - and if I do find myself with constantly profitable trades I'll be sure to give you a shout.
Thanks again
  • #304,280
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:26pm Oct 11, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting T@rantula
You may ask ofcourse. Its H4. besides intraday I do swing trading. Its all written in the charts. take a look. When many of u laughed when I were long I have been collecting pips silently except I made intraday calls here.

Take a look at my swing trade projections. No need to thank me

Attachment
so whats your saying is it will go up??
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patientpan