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  • #303,981
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:12am Oct 11, 2010 3:12am
Price action shows a downside move...towards 1.3880 first...then we'll see once it goes there.
1.3940-50 might be a good place to short it unless you're already short
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #303,982
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:13am Oct 11, 2010 3:13am
There is a possibility of a move up above 1.4 followed by a drop. I will wait for the move up and then enjoy the trip down.
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  • #303,983
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:17am Oct 11, 2010 3:17am
Quoting Larseg
Absolutely,

The question is; How much should it drop before there is a trend reversal
1.37? 1.35?
How I spot reversals ( this doesnt have to do anything with MM levels)

Over time I have learned that SMAs are acting as perfect s/r levels and trendlines. On higher TFs I need to see a crossover of SMAs and change in its DIRECTION. When it happens its a first sign of trend exaustion and that the trend is not healthy enough. It has 2 possible directions: 1) Thats just another pullback before the thrust 2) Reversal. Look at the picture below:

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  • #303,984
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:19am Oct 11, 2010 3:19am
Quoting Larseg
Absolutely,

The question is; How much should it drop before there is a trend reversal
1.37? 1.35?
yeah , good thing , break below & hold only ( consider another 100pips if not hold formula applied & also ew may consider overlapping enough ) to start thinking at 3334 ,2585 may grow confidence but confirmation parhaps again may after the low. so may see trend change only it already happened .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #303,985
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:20am Oct 11, 2010 3:20am
Target reached.
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If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #303,986
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:28am Oct 11, 2010 3:28am
Quoting T@rantula
How I spot reversals ( this doesnt have to do anything with MM levels)

Over time I have learned that SMAs are acting as perfect s/r levels and trendlines. On higher TFs I need to see a crossover of SMAs and change in its DIRECTION. When it happens its a first sign of trend exaustion and that the trend is not healthy enough. It has 2 possible directions: 1) Thats just another pullback before the thrust 2) Reversal. Look at the picture below:

Attachment

Nice drawing

As you said the question is if it is a pullback or reversal... But who the heck wants USD now?

However, have you bought that Tarantula yet?
  • #303,987
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:28am Oct 11, 2010 3:28am
Quoting fontu
yeah , good thing , break below & hold only ( consider another 100pips if not hold formula applied & also ew may consider overlapping enough ) to start thinking at 3334 ,2585 may grow confidence but confirmation parhaps again may after the low. so may see trend change only it already happened .
fontu
Break of 2560 ONLY for a U-turn
  • #303,988
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:29am Oct 11, 2010 3:29am
Quoting Larseg
Nice drawing

As you said the question is if it is a pullback or reversal... But who the heck wants USD now?

However, have you bought that Tarantula yet?
Yes I have entered @ 3950 based on late Asia analysis and MM 5/8-7/8 swing
  • #303,989
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:40am Oct 11, 2010 3:40am
Quoting T@rantula
Yes I have entered @ 3950 based on late Asia analysis and MM 5/8-7/8 swing


Are you in Gold as well?
I am still angry for selling at 1300 but hard to pick tops and bottoms, anyway theres a good read on gold (first page) on DowJones if you haven't already..

free 24 hr link
http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/al?rnd=xmfoORwp0DyOKQwGOkyWMA%3D%3D
  • #303,990
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:42am Oct 11, 2010 3:42am
Quoting Larseg
Are you in Gold as well?
I am still angry for selling at 1300 but hard to pick tops and bottoms, anyway theres a good read on gold (first page) on DowJones if you haven't already..
how much is the spread on your platform?
  • #303,991
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:49am Oct 11, 2010 3:49am
Quoting T@rantula
how much is the spread on your platform?

Using Oanda and its on 32 pips

I only trade gold because I feel it is less correlated than trading several crosses, and that it just went crazy after hitting 1000 heaps of times made me a bit more interested...
  • #303,992
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:52am Oct 11, 2010 3:52am
Quoting T@rantula
Yes I have entered @ 3950 based on late Asia analysis and MM 5/8-7/8 swing
Hum, sorry to bother with a newbie question, but what did let you think it could get back to 1.40 given it already reached that level after opening ? Is MM swing 7/8 -> 5/8 -> 7/8 the only answer ?
Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
  • #303,993
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:52am Oct 11, 2010 3:52am
Quoting Larseg
Using Oanda and its on 32 pips

I only trade gold because I feel it is less correlated than trading several crosses, and that it just went crazy after hitting 1000 heaps of times made me a bit more interested...
70 pips spread on my platform ...
  • #303,994
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:56am Oct 11, 2010 3:56am
3955 capped that rally, a close on the hourly above there would make me bullish...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #303,995
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:57am Oct 11, 2010 3:57am
atm it obey bear's path, manually entered short at 3955, but don't rule the bulls out. sl at be, psychologist is informed.
  • #303,996
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:57am Oct 11, 2010 3:57am
Quoting fontu
ok so far & now lets see if can break also 3905 , 3881 levels to test 3860 less important now but 3808 is .

Can break chain reaction at any level as usdx not seems so bullish, may be just a formal reaction & sure ranging mode if can play some here .
fontu
hello fontu, may i ask how u drew the blue lines?
  • #303,997
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:58am Oct 11, 2010 3:58am
Quoting kassec
Hum, sorry to bother with a newbie question, but what did let you think it could get back to 1.40 given it already reached that level after opening ? Is MM swing 7/8 -> 5/8 -> 7/8 the only answer ?
Price has opened above PP (4/8)at 00.00h. Above 5/8 the PA is bullish. 5/8-7/8 is a common MM pattern. We are in UPTREND.Double hidden bullish Momentum divergence @ h4 and H4 SMA swing analysis (chart above).....
  • #303,998
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:58am Oct 11, 2010 3:58am
Eurusd doesn't look too promising,if it break 1.3915 then it will go down to s/t support at 1.3899 then the next target will be 1.3870.
  • #303,999
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:00am Oct 11, 2010 4:00am
After a detailed study, of the opinion that:

1. If it doesn't go up, will come down, or
2. If it doesn't come down, will go up

WTF!

To make sense:

Add: "to 1.3965" to 1) above, and
Add: "to 1.3914" to 2) above

I am out at the sidelines. Peace here.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #304,000
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:00am Oct 11, 2010 4:00am
3 daily closes at 1.3930 and we are about there now.
Bit off indecision but looking at daily tf not even a retrace.
we have break 1.3850--1.3800 for price to even look like a retrace.
In my opinion certainly no signs of trend change at moment.
could be a third range day very strong possibility considering fridays action.

Would love to see order flow to get a warning of that big seller/sellers orders that keeps pushing it south.

Doesn't feel like the big guns have a strong opinion either way.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
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