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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,901
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:28am Oct 9, 2010 8:28am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Same for USD, but that doesn't mean that BoJ aren't able to trade Sunday night GMT and they now pretty much have a green light for short-term intervention.

Damn, I know I'm getting desperate, I'm looking at MACD & RSI bullish divergence on the H1 TF, what nonsense ... Well my long is at b/e or there abouts, could have really done without that last 5 min 20 pip tank, the b@st@rds... Worst case scenario it gaps down 100 points on open...

Noda latest:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...08-712754.html

Monthly PPs:...

Sunday night is their Monday so not likely at all.
  • #19,902
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:47am Oct 9, 2010 8:47am
Quoting moonchild
Sunday night is their Monday so not likely at all.
They may just leave it to see (if it gets that far, which is looking likely if left unchecked), if it finds support by double bottoming at the 1995 low. It would probably already be there except for the initial intervention.

Thinking very short-term tho' it could do with taking a breather and correcting back to possibly the 82.50 to 83 zone.

It all hinges on FOMC & QE2 IMO.
  • #19,903
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:59am Oct 9, 2010 8:59am
Hi again guys, i want to ask you guys something that perhaps never cross on our mind, is there any chance for this pair go to under 79.xx perhaps 78 or 77.xx maybe? I ask this think because i know that we will se a bad number for US for a few time ahead and i really confused by japan where they had face a serious problem and they are not doing what they should do, and also the japan still showing a good bussiness confident even if they really have a strong currency. Could anyone help me explain this? Thans before guys i believe thete is someone can answer my question here at this forum.
  • #19,904
  • Edited 9:23am Oct 9, 2010 9:06am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting yeri
Hi again guys, i want to ask you guys something that perhaps never cross on our mind, is there any chance for this pair go to under 79.xx perhaps 78 or 77.xx maybe? I ask this think because i know that we will se a bad number for US for a few time ahead and i really confused by japan where they had face a serious problem and they are not doing what they should do, and also the japan still showing a good bussiness confident even if they really have a strong currency. Could anyone help me explain this? Thans before guys i believe thete is someone...
This doesn't really answer your question, and it's just an opinion of which there are many, but I would say that it is highly unlikely to be allowed to slip below 79.95, given the current squawks coming out of BoJ & Gov't of Japan, however anything is possible...

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article...icleid/4569923
  • #19,905
  • Oct 9, 2010 9:51am Oct 9, 2010 9:51am
Quoting yeri
Hi again guys, i want to ask you guys something that perhaps never cross on our mind, is there any chance for this pair go to under 79.xx perhaps 78 or 77.xx maybe? I ask this think because i know that we will se a bad number for US for a few time ahead and i really confused by japan where they had face a serious problem and they are not doing what they should do, and also the japan still showing a good bussiness confident even if they really have a strong currency. Could anyone help me explain this? Thans before guys i believe thete is someone...
There are two scenarios. Intervention and no intervention.

If intervene, this thing will go up and then it will come down at double the amount. So the intervention is going to be 'smoothing' here on.

No intervention: the Jap economy is sound and will push the UJ further down. But that will cause havoc in export oriented jap economy.

With these two scenarios, even if there is QE or not in the US, even if USD appreciates, UJ will hover around or above 80 for quite sometime. It will not fire up like EU. That will only happen if Jap economy collapses, which is highly unlikely. On the other hand, UJ going to 78 chances are less likely due to the 'smoothing' circus.

I will be both short and long on this one depending on what I see (the chart)

Just my two cents.....
  • #19,906
  • Oct 9, 2010 12:42pm Oct 9, 2010 12:42pm
Just popping in to say goodbye to the yen.

The level of confusion and the amount of conflicting press releases coming out of the BOJ, Diet and members of the Cabinet has been a huge drain on me personally, not to mention my account. Japan, being the 3rd largest economy in the world, is a superpower. But apparently, instead of defending their own interests, they would rather be the doormat of China and the US, so they're going to do exactly as they are told while they are getting drilled from behind. There is nothing wrong with not devaluing your currency - the ECB has decided not to do so and has been very clear about it. The Japanese, on the other hand, have been open about wanting a cheap currency. However, they have been unwilling to do anything about their stance. I can see the reason very clearly - the ECB is an independent organization closely modeled after the BuBa; the BOJ is heavily influenced by the government. I would've thought that the Prime Minister and his partners in crime (ie. the cabinet) would at least have a spine and would stick to their words...... apparently not (breaking your word, cheating, being late and all that sort of stuff is frowned upon in Japan to the extent that some people commit suicide, I would've expected the government hold their chin high and keep their word).

Anyway, the losses, both psychological and monetary prove that:
First, don't trade what you don't understand.
Second, never ever trust a politician (we all knew that before, didn't we?).

If by any chance you think that I'm angry then the answer is 'yes, certainly'. I'm not angry at the Japanese, though. I'm angry with myself, I should've known better. From now on, I'm going to keep as far away from the yen as possible until someone builds a BOJ Special Enigma Machine (uh..never?). Until then, I'm going to stick to currencies that are easier to trade and central banks whose officials mean what they say.

Good luck to the rest of you! Maybe we'll meet in another thread.
Sayonara!
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #19,907
  • Oct 9, 2010 4:46pm Oct 9, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting PipMaxzz
There are two scenarios. Intervention and no intervention.

If intervene, this thing will go up and then it will come down at double the amount. So the intervention is going to be 'smoothing' here on.

No intervention: the Jap economy is sound and will push the UJ further down. But that will cause havoc in export oriented jap economy.

With these two scenarios, even if there is QE or not in the US, even if USD appreciates, UJ will hover around or above 80 for quite sometime. It will not fire up like EU. That will only happen if Jap economy...
No intervention is something that i'm afraid of i can see any sign of intervention. We all dont know at what level that boj will ake a stel for the second intervention i just try to make a preparation for the worst case. Thanks guys
  • #19,908
  • Oct 9, 2010 5:02pm Oct 9, 2010 5:02pm
First, please do not take my opinion seriously because it is quite biased - I'm long in UJ as of now.

I think JP is going to intervene next week. Noda is meeting Geithner today, presumably talking about JP's intervention. Noda is not asking Geither for his understanding for an intervention, but informing Geithner of how JP is going to manipulate Yen. Noda is not seeking for an agreement, but explaining why JP needs to intervene the market to survive their domestic industry.

Otherwise, what else is Noda meeting Geithner for? To get convinced not to intervene? don't think so.

I believe JP wanted to intervene yesterday, but did not because of this meeting coming up. JP really need to throw the money at 82 level so that they can keep it above 82 (Actually one of the JP cabinet members slipped "82" out).

I always think Govt people know little about the market, but also think they are not stupid. If JP does not intervene again, they are truly stupid wasting $2T on 9/15.

Just my two cents...
  • #19,909
  • Oct 9, 2010 5:52pm Oct 9, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting Forexgogo
First, please do not take my opinion seriously because it is quite biased - I'm long in UJ as of now.

I think JP is going to intervene next week. Noda is meeting Geithner today, presumably talking about JP's intervention. Noda is not asking Geither for his understanding for an intervention, but informing Geithner of how JP is going to manipulate Yen. Noda is not seeking for an agreement, but explaining why JP needs to intervene the market to survive their domestic industry.

Otherwise, what else is Noda meeting Geithner for? To get convinced not...

if they didnt intervene, take out the spike and look where uj would be.......they are just trying to slow the strength of the yen. As for really weakening the yen, there isn't much they can do, they have been in a liquidity trap for decades.
  • #19,910
  • Oct 9, 2010 6:06pm Oct 9, 2010 6:06pm
You guys really crack me up with all your whining. You have been taken for a ride and keep sitting there rationalizing about an intervention that would make you all millionaires overnight. Get a grip on it and start trading UJ like any other pair with proper MM and stop losses or get out altogether until the whole mess clears up.
Just my 2 cents...
  • #19,911
  • Oct 9, 2010 6:09pm Oct 9, 2010 6:09pm
By intervention BOJ cannot force Market to go long UJ...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #19,912
  • Oct 9, 2010 6:12pm Oct 9, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting mima
By intervention BOJ cannot force Market to go long UJ...

right, in the medium/ long term all intervention spikes will eventually be sold and the pair will drift back down. But short term, the market will not trade against trillions of yen being dumped. Shorts will cover.
  • #19,913
  • Oct 9, 2010 10:19pm Oct 9, 2010 10:19pm
While we are waiting
Inserted Video
  • #19,914
  • Oct 10, 2010 3:29am Oct 10, 2010 3:29am
God, last time I have Sambuca & lager, heads killing!



The political pressure within Japan to intervene must be intense...

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article...icleid/4570493
  • #19,915
  • Oct 10, 2010 3:30am Oct 10, 2010 3:30am
hoping for n replay from 9/14/2010 : p
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #19,916
  • Oct 10, 2010 3:35am Oct 10, 2010 3:35am
Quoting PhAnTi'
hoping for n replay from 9/14/2010 : p
Same here, still swimming against the tide tho' & it is a gamble, but a calculated one, money management is key....
  • #19,917
  • Oct 10, 2010 3:37am Oct 10, 2010 3:37am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Same here, still swimming against the tide tho' & it is a gamble, but a calculated one, money management is key....
that's it.....rly nice r:r
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #19,918
  • Oct 10, 2010 10:26am Oct 10, 2010 10:26am
No decision on devaluation war in the finance ministers meeting. So chances of BOJ intervening is high if UJ keeps dropping. Easy to trace UJ movements in the coming weeks:

- Keep selling with tight SL... example 20 pips SL, move SL to BE
- Keep adding on intervention..example: add every 50 pips,, move SL to BE for open trades. Close once storm ends
- Once the intervention cools off (wait a day or two) keep selling

Have fun pipping with UJ
  • #19,919
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:21am Oct 10, 2010 11:21am
since i have no open position, i can say i am in a right state of mind to make a judgment..
i put buy limit on 81.30, and is subject to change according to the market, based on the idea that history always, or if not always, quite often repeats itself. the japanese government will eventually intervene in the market.... for this i am pretty convinced it will have to touch the 1995 lowest 79.xx... why?
1. because the japanese government failed last month, they are not going to intervene before it touches the strong support on 1995, so that they don't intervene now, just to see it coming even lower the next month.
2. the yen prices is already very high... and everybody knows the rule sell high, buy low
3. the trend is your friend, but trend won't be intact forever.
4. with the japanese people's pride, i am sure they will do what they say, they really have the integrity...(been working with japanese)
5. dealing with deflation is easier than inflation

we just have to remain solvent, for those who already have long position. the worst case is that their currency getting too strong, their exports are not affordable, eventually they will have to set everything back to normal...they can print as much as needed yen to sell, so there is no worst case...
if i understand how the market moves rightly, the japanese just want to make sure, the trend is ending, in the psychology of traders...
but considering the fundamentals:
1. japan's economy are doing good,
2. us is doing quantitative easing, to say the pair would go even lower.. i have little faith in that... why? first, the UJ is losing momentum to go lower, second, because fundamentals are only true if trader see that as a fact that needs to reflect the intrinsic value in the market. which i see is true in stock market(long term), not in the currency market(medium term)...
just imho. no one can predict market 100% right.
  • #19,920
  • Edited 3:00pm Oct 10, 2010 12:08pm | Edited 3:00pm
there is here 2 buy orders

first from point 82.88
second from point 82.51

i have to close it or wait ???
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