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  • #303,581
  • Oct 9, 2010 2:12pm Oct 9, 2010 2:12pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord

I wouldn't put it past them to try to do something like this now but of course China would have to be on board and there's no way they would be.

If they did, though, all the spot fx brokers would shut down - maybe temporarily, maybe not....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #303,582
  • Edited 3:48pm Oct 9, 2010 3:26pm | Edited 3:48pm
wow, i'm amazed to see so many elaborate opinions on current situation, which is a difficult one to assess as it appears.

unfortunately, i destroyed all the chart-work i recently did on friday, when i left the office and took my notebook home... mt4 was empty, and because of that, i will have to start from scratch until markets are going to open up on sunday... shit happens.

@gator: where did you spot the gartley on eu? or is it eux? the perimeters don't seem to fit on eu, or the accepted slippage factor is bigger than i expect it to be, before the pattern is rendered invalid.

@infinitus: nice to see you are trying out the s/r approach, i will try to come up with a tidied up version of this one and send you the template.

@mercy_seat: concerning the au this is a very useful information, and looking at the charts ("historic" data for this pair is kind of capped in 1988 in mt4) the fib-extension @1.01378 would allow for a decent resistance level and therefore serve as a kind of slippage to 0.98490 reached in 2008-07. but as historic data is not there in mt4, just a few spots of it, this is kind of uncharted territory. therefore a break of that level would lead to a free float.

i don't have any valid proof to undermine my estimation, but if this wasn't the top for eu - which to my mind wouldn't even make sense - i see 1.41245 as a possible reversal area. gu could therefore reach the 61.8 extension level at 1.63485 (extension from 1.36568 to 1.708516 via 1.42298).

all of these values are stricly calculated extension levels, which would make sense to me as more or less "official" targets from institutional traders - the unknown unknown to me is, if these values correlate properly - for eu that would be a further gain of 189,6 pips, for gu 390,3 and for au 259,1 pips. all of these are within reach...
and where does gold have to be, if these levels should be reached?
  • #303,583
  • Oct 9, 2010 3:58pm Oct 9, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting The Fool
Typically I will have the Bollinger Bands, standard candlesticks, 100 and 200 SMA or EMA, and that is all. I look at 10s, 1m, 15m, h1, h3 charts usually at the same time. I mark supply and demand zones, channels and trend lines based on the higher tf's. Whether the market is trending or ranging, I pay attention to any evident periodic waveforms in the price action and I look for synchronicity in those waves across tf's as a guide for entries and as a guide for assessing how far to let a winning trade run before I lock in profit or how far I might...
Nice post.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #303,584
  • Oct 9, 2010 5:26pm Oct 9, 2010 5:26pm
my balls have gained an alloy scrote.

im shorting the ****ing ar$e out of EURUSD once it hits 1.45 if it has no good pullbacks.

so that i can come back and boast at you all.

if not ill lose 50% of my account and be washed away among the other thousands who lose money...
  • #303,585
  • Oct 9, 2010 6:14pm Oct 9, 2010 6:14pm
@ a lot of you regulars. A few of you guys seem very knowledgeable, gator, infinitus, hatch, etc. Does much of your knowledge come mostly from experience or are there decent books, readings, I can check out? You all just seem to have a good grip on what you are doing, just trying to get my own hold on things. Thanks.
  • #303,586
  • Oct 9, 2010 6:15pm Oct 9, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting TGpop
my balls have gained an alloy scrote.

im shorting the ****ing ar$e out of EURUSD once it hits 1.45 if it has no good pullbacks.

so that i can come back and boast at you all.

if not ill lose 50% of my account and be washed away among the other thousands who lose money...

yea you do that, Ill be waiting
  • #303,587
  • Oct 9, 2010 7:10pm Oct 9, 2010 7:10pm
October 7th, 2010

Tekoa speaks with Jim Willie about the dangers of currency wars, gold in just the early stages of a bull market, and more financial collapses to come.

http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/jim-willie-radio/
  • #303,588
  • Oct 9, 2010 7:20pm Oct 9, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
my head will pop if i learn technicals. thanks for extension info.
i was merley bothered about traders looking to short it thinking that we have a top in place for sure and all examples are showing that we are in a correction and once correction is over there s more to the upside . for this week 1.4 will be resistance that i ll take my short to get 1.38 support if this breaks target will be 1.365 if it didnt break then we ll have a traingle formation and we should look to buy to go to next res 1.4180 . this is only my opinion and i could be wrong
  • #303,589
  • Oct 10, 2010 12:22am Oct 10, 2010 12:22am
Quoting Mr Hatch
wow, i'm amazed to see so many elaborate opinions on current situation, which is a difficult one to assess as it appears.

unfortunately, i destroyed all the chart-work i recently did on friday, when i left the office and took my notebook home... mt4 was empty, and because of that, i will have to start from scratch until markets are going to open up on sunday... shit happens.

@gator: where did you spot the gartley on eu? or is it eux? the perimeters don't seem to fit on eu, or the accepted slippage factor is bigger than i expect it to be, before...
heres a few on many pairs
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,590
  • Edited 12:44am Oct 10, 2010 12:27am | Edited 12:44am
Quoting nawafasad1
i was merley bothered about traders looking to short it thinking that we have a top in place for sure and all examples are showing that we are in a correction and once correction is over there s more to the upside . for this week 1.4 will be resistance that i ll take my short to get 1.38 support if this breaks target will be 1.365 if it didnt break then we ll have a traingle formation and we should look to buy to go to next res 1.4180 . this is only my opinion and i could be wrong
when all are bullish or bearish its time to look for cracks. when everyone is long there is nobody to push it higher.. or visa versa. i expect a pullback. at a min 3333.. but we/l need a sign.. abc complete could just be a bump. and it can go much higher..oil 84.57 + slip is a # i will watch.. along with others mentioned..usdx is another... if they all reach this point at a similar time. i will watch also.. some may be over in this process. but my entry will have a closer to the top entry. making my loss limited and/or my reward potential higher.. aud yellow chart has a target much higher then current level. and usdx can still go higher as aud goes higher. the aud is a small % of usdx compared to the euro. in a pullback the euro or gbp has more to lose verses commodity pairs against the usd. just look at the trend on the ea. unless we have a free fall crash... last time the kiwi took the ass whippen
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,591
  • Oct 10, 2010 12:44am Oct 10, 2010 12:44am
hello everybody, hope all having a good weekend

Puty i just e-mail you, answer me please, thanks
The Chonchy
  • #303,592
  • Oct 10, 2010 12:48am Oct 10, 2010 12:48am
Gator how are you hope you are drinking moderately over the weekend, I'm....

gator do you think we may have a fall crash on the Dow with the elections coming or this is something that they can't control, if is coming is coming, thanks in advance for your answer
The Chonchy
  • #303,593
  • Edited 1:52am Oct 10, 2010 1:35am | Edited 1:52am
Quoting chonchy
Gator how are you hope you are drinking moderately over the weekend, I'm....

gator do you think we may have a fall crash on the Dow with the elections coming or this is something that they can't control, if is coming is coming, thanks in advance for your answer
if i was on a see/saw i would be worried if the skinny kid jump on it too fast or the fat kid left me high . Lets say QE prints a gizzilian u.s dollars. it makes chinese products cheaper all over the world. u.s imports may pick up in theory because they will be cheaper for higher currencies to afford. but think about it.. the same Chinese product will be even cheaper for europe. Cause no matter how cheap the usd gets. the chinese pegged to usd will always be cheaper. so the u.s. may sell more specialty products that china dont produce. but thats a small percentage. hell ez may import more fords/chevy ect. between the u.s. and china europe is fucked. because ez rates are based on inflation.... if china is selling more.. they will demand more with a growing middle class. sure the (u.s. /china) upper class will buy bmw ect. from europe. But the price is constantly rising with the euro (out pacing because of demand). and even as the euro rises it will not out pace the rise in commodities. as commodities rise (inflation) their rules say raise rates. but to sell a beamer they will have to lower the price. the cost of building a beamer is constantly going up with commodities. at some point less beamers are sold. so people are laid off. the peasants grab their pitchforks and torches and head for the castle.

early this year europe was improving because the euro was lower.. well we aint at 1876 now. this hurts germany and france the king pins in the ez. add in reduced u.s. tourism to europe as the price rises... at some point as factories close and the machinery is sold off and shipped to china. just like in the u.s, the past decade and 2 decades before shipped to japan... shit will never be the same. the currency will probably fail. i expect wtf moments.. we got some meetings over the weekend. lets see what the cat drags in.. the u.s. dont want an unstable europe. But the u.s. goverment and the fed play by different rules.

what if the u.s. and europe tell china to kiss their ass. then the Chinese have a civil war due to unemployment. . and the u.s. could export military crap ect. to them for the retirement of u.s. debt..(Evil thought? ) i bet goldmen and European banks already have this as one of many scenarios in the game plan.. then after war they could set up shop. the new government would owe the banks for financing the war.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,594
  • Oct 10, 2010 2:05am Oct 10, 2010 2:05am
Quoting gatorinla
i don't do Elliot . so could you do some analysis on a few other pairs like the aud and gu. also usdx if you got it.. (oil is not at this years high like eu is) just to see if they agree. thanks..
Hello Gatorinla,

I have a relatively hard time and I am running short on time over the next few days.

I have never charted one of the other pairs, so I would have to do a lot of counting.

USDX was over the last month more or less the inverted chart of EURUSD.

I will see, if I can deliver some counts over the next days.


Till later then,

Markus
  • #303,595
  • Oct 10, 2010 2:11am Oct 10, 2010 2:11am
Quoting infinitus
Hello Gatorinla,

I have a relatively hard time and I am running short on time over the next few days.

I have never charted one of the other pairs, so I would have to do a lot of counting.

USDX was over the last month more or less the inverted chart of EURUSD.

I will see, if I can deliver some counts over the next days.


Till later then,

Markus
different perspective can be rewarding in both of our pockets. Aj has a bearish gartly. its one of the best indicators there is.. aj has markets and commodities in one pair. if gartly is correct it points to a big down movement.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,596
  • Edited 2:40am Oct 10, 2010 2:23am | Edited 2:40am
Gator so for what I understand in your post, and thanks for the reply, is that the s%$t is about to hit the fan in any WTF moment, the feds need the dollar low for their interest but the yurow needs to be low too, and hence the war we are in not only betwin this two but the franc and the yen as well, so in this war who loose, china? and then civil war will pay for the debt with supplies from here, makes sence to me, only thing is, what china win out of this mess? or there is nothing they can do?
The Chonchy
  • #303,597
  • Oct 10, 2010 2:27am Oct 10, 2010 2:27am
Quoting gatorinla
different perspective can be rewarding in both of our pockets. Aj has a bearish gartly. its one of the best indicators there is.. aj has markets and commodities in one pair. if gartly is correct it points to a big down movement.
roger that, good point, but gator if the feds print money to make interest on this money, why do they devalue the dollar and have sush low interest rates, the sh%$t came before the dessert or some when wrong in their calculations or they just created the crissis to have an escuse to print more, then lower interest rates so no worries with the payers and congress and now the raise them up little by little so no body freaks out?and only they win here and the politicians that are in bed with them
The Chonchy
  • #303,598
  • Oct 10, 2010 2:40am Oct 10, 2010 2:40am
Quoting mck6206
@ a lot of you regulars. A few of you guys seem very knowledgeable, gator, infinitus, hatch, etc. Does much of your knowledge come mostly from experience or are there decent books, readings, I can check out? You all just seem to have a good grip on what you are doing, just trying to get my own hold on things. Thanks.
Hi mck,

Thank you for naming me. My face gets a little bit red :-)

I think it is a combination of learning from books and other sources, discussions like here, experience, try and error, a lot of trading (with huge losses and huge wins), dedication, frustration tolerance, patience, screen time, screen time, did I mention screen time.

Murrey Math, Ichimoku and Elliott Wave are my trading tools.

Regarding Murrey Math you can google here in forex factory and you will get a very lenghty but valuable thread. Read it from beginning to end.


Ichimoku: search the internet. It is relatively easy and you can start in short time

Elliott Wave: Maybe only Elliott Wave Principle from R. Prechter (on www.elliottwave.com is a huge amount of free material available, have a look.

Maybe Robert Balan: Elliott Wave Principle Applied to The Foreign Exchange Markets

And read good Elliott Wave Blogs. Very educating:

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/



Do not read newspapers which are stock related, don't watch Blomberg, cnbc etc., do not listen to analysts - they serve a certain purpose, get first your own opinion before you ask others.

Look behind the curtains: e.g.



http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

http://market-ticker.org/

http://yelnick.typepad.com/


Build the strategy that fits best to you. Don't mirror other's trading style.

I found the books of Bill Williams very interesting albeit I do not trade his way.

But I adapted one or another of his methods.

Read everything about fibonacci. There is also a good ebook freely at elliottwave.com available.


Hope that helps, Markus
  • #303,599
  • Edited 3:57am Oct 10, 2010 3:29am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting gatorinla
heres a few on many pairs
thanks, i will re-investigate... they look strange to me, though.

Quoting gatorinla
when all are bullish or bearish its time to look for cracks. when everyone is long there is nobody to push it higher.. or visa versa. i expect a pullback. at a min 3333.. but we/l need a sign.. abc complete could just be a bump. and it can go much higher..oil 84.57 + slip is a # i will watch.. along with others mentioned..usdx is another... if they all reach this point at a similar time. i will watch also.. some may be over in this process. but my entry will have a closer to the top entry. making my loss limited and/or my reward potential higher.....
you yourself taught me to look out for wedges, triangles etc. i looked yesterday, and i thought it might be interesting to share my find.

i had a couple of beers myself yesterday evening, listening to some stratovarius, watching my weekly eu chart, reading the elliott wave theory and so on - and suddenly something in the chapter about corrections struck me. as we have limited historical data here on eu, all we see is more or less part of the grand supercycle. i had to divide the history of eu up into 2 different sections (see picture 2). what, if the movement post 1.6 is a sideways correction of wave 1 (0.8-1.6). ew-theory states that this sideways correction is followed by a steep rise (>2.4) followed again by a sharp corrective movement (as we had the sideways correction already).
this is awfully long term, but it is more or less underminded by the statement that the USD would be devalued in an orderly fashion, and to me there is nothing really special about a currency being thrice or even four times the value of another major. we had to deal with the expensive british pound compared to the d-mark for decades.

but that is just one thought that spooked me while i was severely trapped in a different state of mind, contradicting even common sense.
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  • #303,600
  • Oct 10, 2010 6:51am Oct 10, 2010 6:51am
its good when they agree
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