EURUSD

hi u look into so many tf, may i ask which tf do u really trade in? and do u set a fixed tp? or do u close discretionarily?

gatorinla,

the chart shows the support level for the Dollar Index you have mentioned:

http://yfrog.com/j3ewusd810g

I`m not shure if the elliott count is correct - i consider all patterns as corrective ones only.

Sixer

I am pretty much expecting something totally unexpected. I don't usually carry trades over the weekend but I have a E/U long running with about 15 pips locked in and a tp at .3979 for about a 50-pip winner. If I thought there was room to run north on Monday I'd leave the tp open.

Otherwise I've got a sewer job starting up on Monday & I have to be onsite from 7AM every day so I am back to scalping an hour or so a day at best. FO and NYO. I have a swing trade account & I need to get back in that but I am going to wait to see how all this "currency war" bs shakes out and that might take some time. Pretty hard to be a predictor when there's dueling intervention going on...

it depends on the PA and on whether it is in a strong trend or a definite range. Typically I will be making entries on the M1 though. If I am trading in a set range I might set a tp if I am not fishing for a breakout. Sometimes if there is good volatility in a range I will trade at large risk and put on a tight tp - risk at around 0.2 - 0.4% of account per pip then maybe look for just a 2 or 3 pip winner for a 1% account gain - sl the same at around 1:1. If I am trying to scalp into a breakout or into a trending range I will put on the tp out of range and then concentrate on moving it into a locked-in profit better than BE but at a point in the trade where it stands a chance of surviving if the PA is oscillating - I mean don't move your sl to BE too soon or you will just waste the trade. If I can scalp into a trade at 0.1 - 0.2% of account per pip and then that breaks out or even legs up like E/U has been doing then I can realize some very large returns. I don't get that done real often but the times that I do make up for all the times that PA came back and nicked my sl at BE +1 or whatever. And even if all I do on a given day is scalp into BE +1 winners then I can still walk away at the end of the day with +1 or 2 % because the scalps were leveraged so high. If I am out of sync I will stop trading at -3% for the day max....

i try to find as many reasons for a reversal as i can.. i also try to find reasons to be wrong.

QE is the unknown.
.. Abc says we dont reach that tl unless other pairs excluding euro weaken more comparable (verses euro). in other words usdx has more euros in the basket then any other currency. the euro would have to strengthen verses other pairs (excluding usd except up abc target 4038 ish) up to the abc target of 4030/40 ish.. im sure there is a % allowed for slippage. i just don't know it. at the same time the other currency's would have to push the usdx lower. we usually stay basically flat during the process of equalizing. the usdx can go lower w/o the eu getting above the abc at 4038 ish..

its late and im repeating..

I agreed.

But i think we could see 1.42 b4 the big fall.
We have bearish gartley on Daily and Monthly chart. But JUST created this week.... So Time is important... and patience ^^

something more serious ? not know . talking about audusd , thought before more or less resemble eu & unfolded big down wave but recently top over the previous one confused totally & can not think anything about it or even eu & other usd pairs fate .
anyway data there limited . Is there any available before july 1989.
what thinking others about this pair as big picture ?
fontu

Severe capitulation coming, but where & when?

Thanks , as eu, gu & au most similar & if au goes in advance with gold (min 1460-1500 now as thought ) perhaps due hyper hyperinflation may bring all with it to the level au now , eu 1.6048-1.3934=2114pips & gu 2.2116-1.5958=7165pips ( may not good in mathematices ) to cover they lagged with au & up ?
spinning my head !!!!!!!!!
lets see as in ew overlapping not any factor perhaps , even if break few hundreds pips up au may down again as if nothing happened .

Anyway just praying to Gold ( God also ) help all of us & give us the power to cope with all expenditure to come .
fontu

my target is exactly the same as murry... 1.001 ... i have a gartly that ends at 10059 that takes us 800 pips down to 9221

shit its 5am bedtime..

Thanks for the information , so all up lots of pips still & may shortcut all retracements to any minimum near to nil for eu & gu also .

To go with gold now .bais mental setups & unfolded big down ez troubles all to forget & perhaps going to all wrong before , to readjust .

fontu

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...kets_LeadStory

HONG KONG—Emerging-market economies from South Africa to Brazil to Thailand are bearing the brunt of easy-money policies in the developed world, as money flows to higher-yielding markets, pumping up currencies and complicating economic policy.

"The Fed is flooding markets with liquidity, Japan is flooding the markets with liquidity and the U.K. is flooding markets with liquidity. The trouble is, a lot of that money isn't staying where it was put," says David Carbon, an economist at DBS in Singapore.

Investors borrow money at near-zero interest rates in the struggling economies of the developed world, and shuttle it to countries such as Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa, where interest rates are higher and growth rates more robust.

The issue has raised concerns among the Group of 24 emerging and developing nations, which called for global coordination of macroeconomic policies to ease growing tensions over currencies.

"The current policies of the developed countries are leading to very significant capital flows into some of the emerging countries. This is putting upward pressure on exchange rates," said South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, chairman of the Group of 24.

Brazilian central bank President Henrique de Campos Meirelles echoed the currency concerns Thursday, saying that a combination of U.S. policies, European economics and China's fixed exchange rate has led to major distortions in currency markets.

Driving the recent spate of flows has been anticipation that the Federal Reserve will restart its efforts to stimulate growth through purchases of government debt that inject more money into the banking system—a practice known as quantitative easing, or "QE."

"With the trillions of dollars of QE1 coal yet to be burned through and another trillion of QE2 seemingly on the way, it's surely going to take more than a few weeks or months or quarters before this train comes to rest," says Mr. Carbon. He figures $2 billion is flowing from developed markets to Asia's emerging markets a day, based on the nearly $1 trillion in reserves accumulated by various countries since financial markets began to recover in April 2009.

The wall of money is causing policy headaches, pushing up currencies and hurting exporters.

The massive amounts of money also can create economic distortions in smaller markets. These include boosting inflation and raising the fear that this fast-moving money can leave as quickly as it arrived, whipsawing markets and financial systems.

"Many economies contemplating huge capital inflows have to take action to avoid [creating] bubbles and problems in their economies," said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn in a news briefing Thursday at the opening of the IMF's annual meeting.

Over the longer term, he said, letting currencies appreciate is the best way to handle the issue—though he didn't specify which currencies he was referring to.

Shorter term, he said countries on the receiving end can boost regulation and central bank reserves and take other measures to control capital flows. For years, the IMF opposed capital controls, but that view recently changed. "We can understand that some element of capital controls [need to] be put in place," Mr. Strauss-Kahn said.

"Past experience has shown that excessive flows or valuations tend to indicate that a bubble is in the making," wrote researchers in a recent report from the Institute of International Finance, a financial-industry research group in Washington.

Complicating matters for many countries are China's efforts to tightly manage its currency's value. The world's biggest exporter has let the yuan rise less than 2% against the dollar since announcing a reform to its currency regime in June. Meantime, currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah, the Thai baht and the Brazilian real are all 10% stronger against the dollar over that time. The disparity makes many other emerging markets fearful that China is gaining a competitive edge in exports, encouraging them to intervene in the market to keep their currencies from rising too quickly.

"The core of the problem is the imbalance between China and the U.S.," Israel's central bank governor Stanley Fischer said this week in an English-language summary of a news briefing. "This situation is causing acute tension in the world markets."

Israel is among the economies struggling to cope with too much of a good thing—inflows of foreign money. The central bank has been raising interest rates to arrest domestic inflation and try to head off a housing bubble. At the same time, flows attracted to the higher interest rates have caused the shekel to strengthen, threatening to hurt exports, moving the bank to intervene.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, whose currency is at a five-month high against the dollar, said Thursday he expects foreign exchange to be a topic at the Group of 20 summit that he will host in November.

"Countries may need to discuss global coordination in various pending issues, including foreign exchange," Mr. Lee said in a statement. South Korea was thought to buy as much as $500 million in currency markets Thursday to halt the won's rise, according to foreign-exchange traders in Seoul.
Currency intervention causes the already-easy money to slosh around the world economy even more. As countries intervene, they suck up the flow of money and generally recycle it back into U.S. Treasurys. That keeps borrowing costs in the U.S. low. Investors then borrow that money and send it back to the higher-yielding emerging markets yet again.

"It magnifies the money creation," says Erik Lueth, economist at RBS in Hong Kong.

One tactic to halt flows are capital controls that restrict the movement of money across borders.

Brazil took action this week to deal with the flows into its economy, by doubling a tax on foreign investment in certain Brazilian bonds and increasing the amount its central bank has available to intervene in currency markets.Earlier this year, Indonesia and Taiwan implemented milder measures than Brazil's to dissuade sudden inflows and outflows of capital.
Brazil's action raised concerns that other countries will follow suit. Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund's top economist, said Wednesday that capital controls that redirect capital within an economy, rather than try to stop it altogether, are acceptable.

Another policy tool that these economies are considering is to let more capital flow out. Thailand has seen its currency rise 10% this year against the dollar and last month loosened controls on the export of capital. That will encourage companies and investors to convert baht into other currencies for investment purposes abroad.

Despite the moves, however, tensions in Thailand over the currency have risen, along with the baht's value. Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Thursday he will meet with Bank of Thailand's new governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul this week to discuss the baht's appreciation.

South Korea could take a similar tack by encouraging its $263 billion pension fund, the world's fifth largest, to invest more abroad, according to Mr. Lueth at RBS. He says the Korean government could also encourage utility companies and other consumers of natural resources to be more aggressive in buying assets abroad.

South Africa has been another target for hot money flowing to higher interest rates. Its currency, the rand, is up 8% against the dollar this year, even as its central bank has intervened, buying dollars to keep the rand cheaper.
Reserve Bank of South Africa officials have expressed worry about a sudden outflow if economic conditions change, and at the substantial cost to the central bank to purchase the dollars.

"Asset-price bubbles, financial market instability and uncertainty and fragility of financial systems in general, present risks to the outlook in emerging economies, " X.P. Guma, Senior Deputy Governor of the South African Reserve Bank said Thursday.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...rticle_related

hi fontu, once gator said something like EU (have to fall and) should be = AU at least (correct me if I'm wrong), there is an opposite opportunity to move up AU to the EU price whatever it is, sounds crazy, I know, but

1.035
1.13
1.18
1.22
1.30

many monthly fibo extensions go there... I personally long on AU even here till they will decide fall.

As long as gold is rising, an AU long is probably quite safe.

I am not sure that I understand any reason for parity between AU and EU. Yes they trend together most of the time unless there are specific EZ or AU events, but generally the dominant factour is their comparable relationship to the USD.

that's an interesting chart:

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot...ions-sept.html

we're in new territory - those jobs are never coming back. We could have ~10% unemployment or worse for a long time. I miss the housing bubble....

Looking at that, anything is possible...

Hello Folks,

nice to see you here doing musings about forex strategies for the next weeks.

Hey, hey, hey, thought you all made a lot of pips on Fridays roller-coaster. So i urge you to call your ladies and spend a few nice hours at extravagant places.

Dudes, that is where the money is for :-) I Did not think that I have to teach you life :-))

I have updated the mid term Elliott Wave Counts on my blog.

If you are interested, address can be find in my signature.


The result of my squiggle count:

I think that it is extremely likely, that we have seen the top already and are heading south - albeit the street may be bumpy.

That would confirm, that we are now rally in a Leading diagonal. At the end of this LD we will get a high retracing wave 2.


So friends, I have to call my lady ;-)

See you later, best to you,

Markus

hi there you r calling the top in here based on nothing relabel your count now but for sure you will later