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  • #303,521
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:18pm Oct 8, 2010 3:18pm
I believe EU will gap upwards in an attempt to reach 1.40.

(H4 charts)
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  • #303,522
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:24pm Oct 8, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
dow is over 11k and appears to be holding or going higher atm.. i would not take a trade till sunday or monday. i may try a short @ 4038.. maybe oil will be 84+then. to increase short odds

Hmm... strange how stocks rallied on a day with bad NFP #, other than ending their final up waves. We'll see next week.
  • #303,523
  • Edited 3:36pm Oct 8, 2010 3:26pm | Edited 3:36pm
#1 mofu is strong (chart says it all). a normal nfp with bad news and we should have shot higher.
we did not.. i did a bull scenario and it showed a double top (4025) (blue/green chart).. my abc was never hit, (but close) it was about 4038.. so im gonna leave a pending short open over the weekend about 4038 with a tight sl. (it may not get hit)
just before news release. cic was below 100 on the daily. it jumped to 112 after (currently 110). if it dips below 100 i would be careful with longs on a bigger tf.
im not leaving anything open over the weekend. gartly and abc are still valid for pullback to 33333 or 3300 +
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,524
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:31pm Oct 8, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
#1 mofu is strong (chart says it all). a normal nfp with bad news and we should have shot higher.
we did not.....
i lied.. i got 1/10 position open short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,525
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:34pm Oct 8, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting enterfx
Hmm... strange how stocks rallied on a day with bad NFP #, other than ending their final up waves. We'll see next week.
QE
i watched the fed cnbc crap. it was less then bullish, slightly hawkish.. also if it happens it would be gradual. not a big amount at a time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,526
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:35pm Oct 8, 2010 3:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
dow is over 11k and appears to be holding or going higher atm.. i would not take a trade till sunday or monday. i may try a short @ 4038.. maybe oil will be 84+then. to increase short odds

I still got my pending @ 4035.
  • #303,527
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:38pm Oct 8, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting enterfx
I still got my pending @ 4035.
it would suck if yours gets hit and not mine..


out of here..
have a good one
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,528
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:38pm Oct 8, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
QE
i watched the fed cnbc crap. it was less then bullish, slightly hawkish.. also if it happens it would be gradual. not a big amount at a time.

Yes, I know, just wonder how big can the bubble get.
  • #303,529
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:41pm Oct 8, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
a normal nfp with bad news and we should have shot higher. we did not..
Verbal intervention from Fed Head Bullard right b4 the NFP. Verbal intervention from Juncker immediately on its release. They are trying to slow the dollar slide down. Maybe turn it around. They can do whatever they want to - within reason - its a barge not a speedboat. The battle will resume next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #303,530
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:44pm Oct 8, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
it would suck if yours gets hit and not mine..


out of here..
have a good one

lol. I know the feeling. Especially if it goes a few k pips


nice weekend everyone
  • #303,531
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:55pm Oct 8, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
its a barge not a speedboat. The battle will resume next week.
The Titanic had the same problem which is why it could not be turned in time to avoid hitting the iceburg.

But with enough time they might actually change the course of the USD, although I keep thinking that they would have to change some basic things about the country and the way it is run. Talk alone is not likely to do it.
  • #303,532
  • Oct 8, 2010 4:25pm Oct 8, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting moonchild
The Titanic had the same problem which is why it could not be turned in time to avoid hitting the iceburg.

But with enough time they might actually change the course of the USD, although I keep thinking that they would have to change some basic things about the country and the way it is run. Talk alone is not likely to do it.
Talk has been moving this market for weeks!
  • #303,533
  • Oct 8, 2010 4:56pm Oct 8, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting mercy seat
RECAPITULATION:

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif

2010-10-08_13h59_ EURUSD _ 015min _ (all ind).PNG (43.9 KB)


RECAPITULATION 1 :


This daily chart (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1286494566) simply shows some fib-enhancements ...
As discussed with some Bank traders yesterday ... and some other larger Investors ... and on the other side with pro engaged Analysts (one of them is a pure Elliott waver) as well ... roughly that area between 1.3996 and 1.4240 should decide if (!) those popular counts will work out for us or not ...

That pure Elliott Theory preferring man (not a Pizza delivery guy ... but a person engaged as a financial services staff member) ... wants to see more or less a real confirmation with a clear breach below 1.3630 limits before considering the short side ...

We decided to play it bullish at first ... Elliott yes or not ... and we thought it is a buy on dips modus at first ...

So if lower firstly ... then 1.3898 - 1.3877 or 1.3846 (in case of extention) should be seen as a buy op ...

We play for a move to cross above 1.3967 again ... beyond that we are looking for 1.4018 or even for 1.4046 - 1.4108 (in case of an extention) ...

Depends on timequality and behaviour prior to NFP ...


RECAPITULATION 2 :



And we did nearly that way as mentioned ...

A buy on dips modus it has been ... 1.3877 at midday in Europe ... for a move to cross beyond 1.3965 at first ...

1.3892 ... 1.3877 ... 1.3857 - 1.3846 ... were our downside levels which should hold at first ...

Upside ... 1.3963 ... 1.3981 ... 1.4008 ... 1.4018 - 1.4046 or 1.4108 in case of an extention ...

Stops below 1.3837/ 28 limits ...


;-)

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif

2010-10-08_21h55_ EURUSD _ 005min _ (all ind).PNG (47.7 KB)

Overall it was a good day ...

We have got an entry low at 1.38440 exactly (manually!!!) ... 80.21% of entrys unwinded at 1.38786 and 1.38857 ...

Rest of positions unwinded at 1.3970 (with a limit or better saying profit stop no.1) and 1.3960 (profit stop no.2) when spike up to 1.39841 after NFP came back down again ...

Unfortunately we did miss the re-entry of a larger positions sizes (via entry stop at 1.3905) three minutes before NFP has been released ...

Künstlerpech ... could have been better as always ... but ... so what


have a nice week-end


:-)
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2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #303,534
  • Oct 8, 2010 4:57pm Oct 8, 2010 4:57pm
I reckon I am not alone collecting pips this week with this kind of trend it "should" be easy money

Looks a bit overbought now doesn't it? Everyone is convinced for more rally? Quantitative Easing at its best or should I say worst?

We all knew jobless would come around the -50k or worse area but -90k was not good, that number just makes it harder for pullback to occur I reckon...

and I really want to see a pullback...

even USD/JPY is at a possible turning point... uaaa.. I want to trade!!!
  • #303,535
  • Oct 8, 2010 8:32pm Oct 8, 2010 8:32pm
Quoting Larseg
I reckon I am not alone collecting pips this week with this kind of trend it "should" be easy money

Looks a bit overbought now doesn't it? Everyone is convinced for more rally? Quantitative Easing at its best or should I say worst?

We all knew jobless would come around the -50k or worse area but -90k was not good, that number just makes it harder for pullback to occur I reckon...

and I really want to see a pullback...

even USD/JPY is at a possible turning point... uaaa.. I want to trade!!!
Quantative easing for the US is Bad for the USD, but it is also bad for risk, which means back to buying USD, JPY and CHF, so it could go either way. Usually if you notice the first reaction to bad figure is buying of GBP and EUR against the dollar, but it comes off straight away. EURUSD is at an artificial price at the moment because asia buying up of euros and selling usd. Next week will be a down week for Euro.
  • #303,536
  • Oct 8, 2010 10:05pm Oct 8, 2010 10:05pm
Momentum builds for nationwide freeze on foreclosures
Washington Post - 8 hours ago
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #303,537
  • Oct 9, 2010 12:37am Oct 9, 2010 12:37am
Morning all . just thinking , everending 5th again or have some pause to substantial risk failing this time !!
still one short left tp open as thought lost before & so play till it dead .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #303,538
  • Oct 9, 2010 1:17am Oct 9, 2010 1:17am
Let's see....long weekend here in the USA - Columbus Day weekend

...in 1492 Columbus sailed the ocean blue...

Big meeting of sovereign bankers and finance ministers with the IMF this weekend. Talking about the "currency wars". Big big big big. Or maybe not.

Remember the last long US holiday weekend? Labor Day - 1st weekend in September? Big big banker meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming? Right after which they snuck in and sucker punched the EUR/USD down couple hundred pips? Then right after that E/U went on a big bull hot streak?

Maybe this weekend will be kinda like that one. Maybe not. Pays to be careful when those guys get together though. Have a restful weekend everybody.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #303,539
  • Oct 9, 2010 2:26am Oct 9, 2010 2:26am
Quoting sdfx
I see that you are a naked trader.. Does that mean you have no indicators or does that mean you have nothing but candle sticks on your charts.. The reason I ask is that for some reason it is easier for me to see what is going on when I have nothing but supply zones where price has changed direction in the past picked out.. If I can kindly ask if you have a resource that you have found that would be good for me to read about naked trading, I would be greatfull..
Typically I will have the Bollinger Bands, standard candlesticks, 100 and 200 SMA or EMA, and that is all. I look at 10s, 1m, 15m, h1, h3 charts usually at the same time. I mark supply and demand zones, channels and trend lines based on the higher tf's. Whether the market is trending or ranging, I pay attention to any evident periodic waveforms in the price action and I look for synchronicity in those waves across tf's as a guide for entries and as a guide for assessing how far to let a winning trade run before I lock in profit or how far I might let a loser go before I bail on it. I watch the E-mini S&P and oil futures while trading spot, paying attention to volume indicators in the futures. I run the free newsfeeds and look at those every few minutes. I spend about 1-3 hours a day reading the financial news: The WSJ, FT, The Economist, various blogs, etc. Typically I trade the run-up to Frankfurt (early Dubai/Moscow) to the first hour of London, then an hour or so in the London/NY overlap, perhaps the NY 3:00 fade, then maybe an hour 30min either side of the Tokyo open. I trade all news that will offer decent volatility. I trade large lots for quick, short winners in volatile price action, usually around 50 trades a day in an active day. But I am always looking to lock in profit on a winner and to let it run. I'm a scalper, a break-out trader, a volatility trader, and the above is how I trade in a nutshell.

I can not point you to a single resource but if you will spend time (1,000's of hours) looking at many many of the well-attended threads right here in FF you can get a good trading education for free - so long as you concurrently demo trade what you are studying. I would recommend you do that before you buy even one book on trading. Practice makes perfect.

The most important thing: learn how to not lose money, learn about money management, learn to love small losses. Learn how to be selective so that you can reliably win trades for small winners, then learn how to let those small winners run for their probable maximum yield. If you can learn these things and put them into action full-time you can make Large Amounts of Money in a Short Amount of Time.

Good Luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #303,540
  • Edited 3:12am Oct 9, 2010 2:59am | Edited 3:12am
if nothing changes i expect a huge bounce in usdx maybe at 76.56 or sooner.. current level 77.19...recent low 76.90... it may have already started.. last time this set-up moved the usdx 355 pips thats over 700 on eu. it could put usdx back to 80.45.. if it goes above 81.35 ish and holds it is a reversal .. gartly and abc on eu agree that could put us over this level..

gu says about the same around murry 5991.
eu 4112 ish (beyond abc but within gartly)
ea 41059.. it went below and bounced off.
chf murry 9521 9532ish
nothing is written in stone. abc and gartlys are reversal tools. the dont take into account qe... this may have already started and bb can break the bank trying to stop it. ez will welcome it. this is fluid atm.. dont trade it w/o some kind of confidence in your analysis that agrees.. its not for over leveraged trades or scalping. Its a rhythm count in pa. outside forces can change things. this is counter trend. . its just a setup to watch for.. ok throw some eggs..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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