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  • #303,481
  • Oct 8, 2010 12:54pm Oct 8, 2010 12:54pm
The americans are happy for the dollar to decline and are helping it happen .
Will this mean even if we move lower eu should move up especially with qe2 inevitable?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #303,482
  • Oct 8, 2010 12:58pm Oct 8, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting DMA Trader
exactly. i try to tell a few today they should wait

but i guess nothing compares to the ability to tell friends or girlfriend.

honey I traded the NFP

i made pips while others blow their accounts.
Quote of the day
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #303,483
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:07pm Oct 8, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting paul1
The americans are happy for the dollar to decline and are helping it happen .
Will this mean even if we move lower eu should move up especially with qe2 inevitable?
Why would americans be happy to see the dollar decline. Most of what they buy is imported and as the dollar declines the cost of what they buy increases.

The only thing that is likely to improve from dollar decline is tourism and I am not sure how much of that the US has either.
  • #303,484
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:11pm Oct 8, 2010 1:11pm
Euro dropping soon. AUD & GBP rising to assist
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #303,485
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:14pm Oct 8, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting paul1
The americans are happy for the dollar to decline and are helping it happen .
Will this mean even if we move lower eu should move up especially with qe2 inevitable?
Americans other then the wallmart elites (or brainwashed) are not happy with a declining usd. giving away 50 jobs to make 1 exporting job is just stupid.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,486
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:15pm Oct 8, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting N_na_nah
What kind of effect should we see on EUR USD Short or Long ?
That should pull the pair back . Also, what happens when/if the USD bottoms out to all these equities that have had a nice ride up?
European production numbers are already showing declines even in Germany. When you see German production slide, they'll talk to their bankers real quick. Europe will then ALLOW their dollar to fall not by printing press (they cant print like the Fed) but by failed bond auctions or news of more banks being downgraded. In the meantime, less Beemers sold, more riots.
This doesn't mean USD is on the mend. Some are realizing that QE represents very little bang for the buck. Don't be surprised to see a unexpected rate move up in the coming months to stimulate all that money the banks are sitting on. They are sitting on it for a number of reasons, one of which is they are required to keep alot more in reserve (kinda like your margin being cut in half will cause you to keep more in reserve or trade less and more selectively). A rate hike will free some of that money up.
  • #303,487
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:20pm Oct 8, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting paul1
The americans are happy for the dollar to decline and are helping it happen .
Will this mean even if we move lower eu should move up especially with qe2 inevitable?
Americans are NOT helping it happen. No money is moving in the retail sector towards equities (low volume), housing, etc. and banks have their hands strapped. Most QE2 money would be invested OFFSHORE and in thing that DONT produce.
Americans want confidence and American production, not Hershey bars made in Mexico.

QE 2 is FAR from inevitable despite the Koolaid the media offers.
  • #303,488
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:22pm Oct 8, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting Redeemed1
That should pull the pair back . Also, what happens when/if the USD bottoms out to all these equities that have had a nice ride up?
European production numbers are already showing declines even in Germany. When you see German production slide, they'll talk to their bankers real quick. Europe will then ALLOW their dollar to fall not by printing press (they cant print like the Fed) but by failed bond auctions or news of more banks being downgraded. In the meantime, less Beemers sold, more riots.
This doesn't mean USD is on the mend. Some are realizing...
Is this a kind of a sure thing? From what I see, banks are their pursues clutched firmly these days, even complain about rates being too low and that this causes them to loose the ability to pay all their bills. A hike is also kind of very short-termish, though we see the effect on the charts... it's like dropping a bottle of water in Sahara...
  • #303,489
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:25pm Oct 8, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
damn, seems as if those mofus give us some trouble.

Indecision is often part of a "topping" process. If you look at todays and yesterdays candles we now what looks like two doji's. I think it needs to test todays high or higher to awaken more bears before the final downmove starts. We'll c.
  • #303,490
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:26pm Oct 8, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
Americans other then the wallmart elites (or brainwashed) are not happy with a declining usd. giving away 50 jobs to make 1 exporting job is just stupid.
Its what a guy on bloomberg said there happy and actively backing it,
maybe i misheard .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #303,491
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:28pm Oct 8, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting Redeemed1
That should pull the pair back . Also, what happens when/if the USD bottoms out to all these equities that have had a nice ride up?
European production numbers are already showing declines even in Germany. When you see German production slide, they'll talk to their bankers real quick. Europe will then ALLOW their dollar to fall not by printing press (they cant print like the Fed) but by failed bond auctions or news of more banks being downgraded. In the meantime, less Beemers sold, more riots.
This doesn't mean USD is on the mend. Some are realizing...
Thank you for your comment.
  • #303,492
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:30pm Oct 8, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
Is this a kind of a sure thing? From what I see, banks are their pursues clutched firmly these days, even complain about rates being too low and that this causes them to loose the ability to pay all their bills. A hike is also kind of very short-termish, though we see the effect on the charts... it's like dropping a bottle of water in Sahara...
Hi Hatch. Yes they need to keep the lights on too. A Fed rate hike draws money to money market funds which is the mainstay for small business lending. Its normally considered very long-termish because businesses and mom n' pop create and grow while the bank makes a buck as opposed to the "free-meal" plan of QE that didn't work the first time, and is LESS likely to work the second.
  • #303,493
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:31pm Oct 8, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting Redeemed1
Americans are NOT helping it happen. No money is moving in the retail sector towards equities (low volume), housing, etc. and banks have their hands strapped. Most QE2 money would be invested OFFSHORE and in thing that DONT produce.
Americans want confidence and American production, not Hershey bars made in Mexico.

QE 2 is FAR from inevitable despite the Koolaid the media offers.
All the reports I'am listening too say qe2 is all but inevitable its just a case of when. There expecting around some november meeting can't remember which one they said.
They also said the dollar was to strong at the moment .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #303,494
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:39pm Oct 8, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting enterfx
Indecision is often part of a "topping" process. If you look at todays and yesterdays candles we now what looks like two doji's. I think it needs to test todays high or higher to awaken more bears before the final downmove starts. We'll c.
i tried to check these two candles by looking at pa in the past, but this scenario is quite bizarre. i can find dojis, but not preceded by such a brute-force movement.
i have no clear direction atm, only a short with a sl at be. i have in mind what the other tops look like though...
  • #303,495
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:43pm Oct 8, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
Is this a kind of a sure thing? From what I see, banks are their pursues clutched firmly these days, even complain about rates being too low and that this causes them to loose the ability to pay all their bills. A hike is also kind of very short-termish, though we see the effect on the charts... it's like dropping a bottle of water in Sahara...
things take time... those German #'s reported are the previous month or older.
when usd was much higher. with usd on a huge decline it will make those German numbers decline. when usd declines so does China currency. it hurts china's (u.s) purchasing power of german exports. it also makes german products more expensive verses u.s. and china products. stay tune... shit happens. dont forget liquidity was pulled from the system to prop up the banks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,496
  • Edited 1:57pm Oct 8, 2010 1:45pm | Edited 1:57pm
Quoting Redeemed1
Hi Hatch. Yes they need to keep the lights on too. A Fed rate hike draws money to money market funds which is the mainstay for small business lending. Its normally considered very long-termish because businesses and mom n' pop create and grow while the bank makes a buck as opposed to the "free-meal" plan of QE that didn't work the first time, and is LESS likely to work the second.
when i got the technical part of analysis right, i will start dealing with the fundamentals... at least the most important key facts. i got a book that covers them, but so far was too busy (lazy) to study this, but given the importance of the facts it is due to be read in the nearer future.

i need to find out, if the past rate hikes actually had positive effects on lending. i watched these incidents separately and didn't go into the depth of it.

thanks for pointing this out to me.

Quoting gatorinla
things take time... those German #'s reported are the previous month or older.
when usd was much higher. with usd on a huge decline it will make those German numbers decline. when usd declines so does China currency. it hurts china's (u.s) purchasing power of german exports. it also makes german products more expensive verses u.s. and china products. stay tune... shit happens. dont forget liquidity was pulled from the system to prop up the banks.
yes, the numbers will decline. they will come into effect in about 3 months, then the media will be full of "exports decline rapidly" again... basically, this is a kind of stress-test to the system itself. every nation gets its good and bad quarters at the markets.

as you're speaking of the propping of the banks... news are rare these days, after hre was found to be in need of another injection and the people disagreeing. instead they're promoting demonstrations against nuclear deposits and the failed integration of foreign people... ah, german finmin schäuble might retire because of sickness. the next one will not be better, as usual.
  • #303,497
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:46pm Oct 8, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting paul1
All the reports I'am listening too say qe2 is all but inevitable its just a case of when. There expecting around some november meeting can't remember which one they said.
They also said the dollar was to strong at the moment .
Yes, you'll here that from the media as I have. A "booming" equities market is more exciting to the media than a stronger USD. But look who's investing? Low volume means mom and dad are not interested.
Also the media for the most part is pro big government. Equities on the rise have an appearance of things being on the way up...remember those elections just around the corner-once again, low volume means mom and pop are not interested.
And yes QE2 MAY happen. But I say from looking at todays Forex reaction, QE2 may already be built in to a large extent. EUR/USD had its chance today with the not so stellar employment numbers to say "Bring QE2 on!.
Ho-Hum, lets go lower instead of higher as though QE2 had arrived. (I realize this was not reported this way as the media only paid attention to the initial reaction, not the larger give back)-Did you notice that?
  • #303,498
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:49pm Oct 8, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting paul1
Its what a guy on bloomberg said there happy and actively backing it,
maybe i misheard .
you heard right. but those guys on bloomberg or most media in general is supported by advertisement. the media is a mouthpiece for the advertisers. they are whores for their bosses.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #303,499
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:55pm Oct 8, 2010 1:55pm
Trading is just like religeon, we base our future on the past. I don't post much here as you can see by the numbers, I would like to commend each and evey one of your for the deep dedication to the craft. Though we may argue one another time and time again we are indeed a family of seekers sharing, Scaring and collaborating for the causation of Profit. And in some cases enlightenment.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #303,500
  • Oct 8, 2010 2:01pm Oct 8, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting DMA Trader
exactly. i try to tell a few today they should wait

but i guess nothing compares to the ability to tell friends or girlfriend.

honey I traded the NFP

i made pips while others blow their accounts.
Yeah that was post of the day, wish u nice weekend
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