EURUSD

not only that but MACD also showing steep bullish divergence on 15M ... but we must not rely too much on these technical and pattern indications ... because thats what fundamentals are for ... they break the rules when in action.

We must wait for NFP

I think the question is what is baked in the cake. I mean you dont go from 126 to 140 with out expectaions.

I think maximum target is 3947


We should likely see this shoot up after NFP

LOL

First chart I can not Elliott Wave chart :-(

thanks very much. i highly appreciate your help with this.

h&s pattern on 15 min chart eur/usd

Beware of huge spike down than spike up with continued up movement



On the other side:


There is a possibility, that this wave 3 is not over, we could have build the A and B leg of this zigzag.

With a huge spike down we could fullfill this ABC pattern

Advise: stay away

sorry hatch , i mean't to say No -supply bar...NO selling pressure
and i think we have one now---Normally, you would want to see the high
of the no-supply bar taken out before you buy..

But if you are good at it.. you can take positions on lower timeframes..

okay..6 minutes left,,,....lol

NFP is bad in the forecast...eur shooting up to ~~1.39850

IMO trend change is not in question due to NFP only, before policymakers decide will they assist EZ in recovery by pushing Eur lower.
Identifying appropriate scalping zone with firm risk control policy is one of better approaches for reasonably successful trading.
Today I notified about two ranges around 1.3920 and 1.3880 that were played up and down despite total lack of next clear direction. Trading wisely, with wider hedging zone due to volatility (if SL is put to tightly usually results are mild) it was possible to reach good gains with one triggered stop loss on the very extreme dip (actually SL was triggred 4,5 PIPs below level set for security, before strong reverse).
It was my third loss since yesterday fall of the pair with aggregate -240 PIPs (on the positive side is +620 PIPs for both days, so far). This means that under totaly volatile conditions, some 35-40% of gains are sacrified for safety, compared to average max. 10% in ordinary situations.
This is dynamic hedging and simply giving personal detailed indications to fellow traders would take more time than I can afford. Also, I'll not respond to PMs on strategies, tactics or how to do some moves, as what I'm ready to share I share here with all.

Still for some traders that are not familiar with NFP, here is short summary.
Release (NY)
8:30am US NFP Forecast 1K Previous -54K
8:30am US Unemployment Rate Forecast 9.7% Previous 9.6%

With today’s release, the expectation ranges from -50K to +50K, counting on an increase in the private sector payrolls estimated at +77K versus the 67K release in August, and Census job in the public sector is expected at -78K. Market has shifted down its sentiment towards private sector jobs slightly after Wednesday’s ADP report of -39K versus +10K of expectation.
The Unemployment Rate will be another important figure as it is expected to rise to 9.7% from 9.6% in August (September release date).
Today market is likely to remain neutral at the time of NFP release with potential movement in either direction pending on the outcome of the release.
Ssignificantly lower release on the NFP (-70K or worse) and Unemployment Rate (9.7% or worse) equals SELL USDJPY on a retracement.
Chance is to go LONG on EUR/USD as “delayed trades” because the immediate reaction to another disappointing NFP release would prompt traders to SELL USD against JPY. But after the initial spike focused on strong JPY is over, traders will turn towards LONG on EUR.
Positive NFP release (+50K or better) and the Unemployment Rate remains at 9.6% or better, JPY should weaken immediately, BOJ may intervene taking advantage of a positive US data.
If conflict release, wait and see market first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, there will be plenty of opportunities for entry. Wait 5 minutes before making an entry to get a much clearer view.

During last NFP release, market reacted with optimism towards USD and risk appetite until the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which provided a reason for sharp reversal in the market.
After all of the numbers have been released wait for the market to push then be patient and wait for a decent retracement before getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a high impact news with various components are extremely volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to enter with much better entry.

With USD/JPY sitting at the psychological level of 82.30, it is going to take a very strong momentum to break this level. With BOJ verbally making the 82.00 as the new line of defense, at break of this level some significant gains are expected in the JPY.
Another important factor is the expectation of QE 2, which was the focus and primary reason for USD’s decline in the past weeks. If we do get a significant lower number, market may continue to sell-off USD until the Fed’s November meeting.
If we do get better release number, then we’ll have to wait for the Advanced GDP data for the 3rd Quarter of 2010.
Various calculating methods are applied to evaluate influence of particular elements and it should be mentioned that there is no firm strategy based only on one NFP release, but combination of other elements and general sentiments.

how do u know?

i understood that you meant supply. well, so far the only thing that i used to be good at is stepping into this trap. now i know what to look out for, because i wasn't aware that the inital down-bar wasn't selling in the first place, but "just looking". damn, so many books to (re-)read... and master the markets seems to be haunting me, because it is so freakingly useful, while at the same time spooky.

which of these do you consider to be one containing sellers?

I'm so excited, I might pee my pants....

Spooky in the sense that it tells it like it is, there's so much deception in this business...

Stock indexes now moving up

very bad news nfp bad bad

-95
EUR UUUUUUUP!

lol....scalped for 25 pips.....5$/pip.....covered my all loss since d day before yesterday....with some green pips more....so happy....long live eur...

well,well what else is new? Dollar taking in the chin again.