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  • #303,221
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:51am Oct 8, 2010 6:51am
Quoting FibbinArchie
l
Too much uncertainty, I exited my long on the spike up to 255.
  • #303,222
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:51am Oct 8, 2010 6:51am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Yeah, I was looking at the m15 (ignoring the blatant H&S)..

Volume kicked in on the spike down...
i still can't interprete this vsa-thing correctly. what does this volume imply? from what i understood, i'd assume that a line has been drawn in the sand and big money wants higher prices. is this correct?
  • #303,223
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:52am Oct 8, 2010 6:52am
Anyone with a nice breakout strategy..this is going to be a very huge move at least 100 pips
  • #303,224
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:54am Oct 8, 2010 6:54am
Quoting Mr Hatch
i still can't interprete this vsa-thing correctly. what does this volume imply? from what i understood, i'd assume that a line has been drawn in the sand and big money wants higher prices. is this correct?
Yup!!! and they are now testing that Bar ----

this is just 30 mins to release !! hence, fun to watch.....

the test has to PASS !!!!
  • #303,225
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:54am Oct 8, 2010 6:54am
Quoting taomql4
am going to be surprise, if sellers don't take it up the arse !!!

if this is not fun to watch , you have no pulse ...lol
Why do you say sellers are going to take it...?
  • #303,226
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:56am Oct 8, 2010 6:56am
spending a few days with the family up north but still trading when possible. yesterday was a good day. let's see about today.

right now i see bear on the hourly but not a perfect path. 15m reads bull but also not clear. a lot of indecision it seems. i am short right now a couple of pips negative. waiting a decent move to decide to keep the shorts or bail out.

right now for me break of 77 and a close at 70 or below would be a good sign for my short...

taking into consideration the news in half hour maybe we will just stay here...

good nfp to u all.
dreams do come true.
  • #303,227
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:57am Oct 8, 2010 6:57am
Quoting kassec
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...5-1053cac84ac3

"[...]the ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are short."


With the recent action, both longs and shorts will scratch their head. This leading diagonal won't go as deep as shorts would like. Bulls will rush in, thinking of a new top, but get teached a lesson when wave 2 reverses shortly before their confirming target.

A leading diagonal in wave 1 position with a deep retracing wave two will confuse everyone and let all the people guessing.....
  • #303,228
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:58am Oct 8, 2010 6:58am
Quoting Pipwanderer
Anyone with a nice breakout strategy..this is going to be a very huge move at least 100 pips
Either that or a nasty whip-lash...
  • #303,229
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:58am Oct 8, 2010 6:58am
Quoting Redeemed1
Why do you say sellers are going to take it...?
if you check the 30 min TF . there 's a huge down bar== Potential hidden buyers... they are in the process of testing that Bar , checkin to see if the bar also comes with sellers !! if there's a low volume NO- demand bar , then
expect higher prices !! NFP report would come in handy for the thrust stage,,,,,
  • #303,230
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:02am Oct 8, 2010 7:02am
I see graveyard doji's hmm there is a high probability that BULLS will take over
  • #303,231
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:02am Oct 8, 2010 7:02am
Quoting Mr Hatch
i still can't interprete this vsa-thing correctly. what does this volume imply? from what i understood, i'd assume that a line has been drawn in the sand and big money wants higher prices. is this correct?
It's not a "holy grail" but it's indicating that professional money or "smart money" is stepping in to absorb the supply, confirmed with the spike bottom candles.

This is a good starting point if you're really interested:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629

Ps. tick volume in Spot FX is sufficient to show activity levels IMHO.
  • #303,232
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:03am Oct 8, 2010 7:03am
I love to feel all this excitation before the NFP news

btw the price action is weird now, big down bar with increasing vol, next bar boucing off a resistance without steam and closing the green...hmm not good for bears. But i'll stand aside and wait NFP
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #303,233
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:03am Oct 8, 2010 7:03am
hi,

in the 15 min tf, the pa is exactly between the 100 EMA as Resistence and the 200 EMA as support.
  • #303,234
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:05am Oct 8, 2010 7:05am
Quoting Munal
My EU Chart... at favor of 1.396X as key resistance..........
It turned to be great resistance........... price got rejected from that level.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu123zone.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #303,235
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:05am Oct 8, 2010 7:05am
'
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ED.png Size: 19 KB
  • #303,236
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:05am Oct 8, 2010 7:05am
Hi Mr. H,

those were (as we can see happened) buyers coming in. i believe they haven't yet unloaded their load. that means we could see much higher prices. if, on the other hand, sellers come again to those levels strong bulls might not hold it once they and those bulls that bought that high vol spike will become weak holders and contribute for a big downer as they are sl or hedge their positions.

whatever moves comes it seems to be big. no close below 77 so i am still not confortable with my shorts (they are too tight maybe LOL)

i hope we see some clear sing before the news or i will close these positions. don't want to give back...

green pips

Quoting Mr Hatch
i still can't interprete this vsa-thing correctly. what does this volume imply? from what i understood, i'd assume that a line has been drawn in the sand and big money wants higher prices. is this correct?
dreams do come true.
  • #303,237
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:05am Oct 8, 2010 7:05am
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

2010-10-08 _ zigzagtracktracer (00h16 CET) EUR-USD daily _ 000.GIF (24.7 KB)

;-)

RECAPITULATION:


This daily chart simply shows some fib-enhancements ...
As discussed with some Bank traders ... and some larger Investors ... and on the other side with pro engaged Analysts (one of them is a pure Elliott waver) as well ... roughly that area between 1.3996 and 1.4240 should decide if (!) counts will work out for us or not ...

That pure Elliott Theory preferring man ... wants to see more or less a real confirmation with a breach below 1.3630 limits ...

We decide to play it bullish at first ... Elliott yes or not ... and we think it is a buy on dips modus at first ...

So if lower firstly ... then 1.3898 - 1.3877 or 1.3846 (in case of extention) should be seen as a buy op ...

We play for a move to cross above 1.3967 again ... beyond that we are looking for 1.4018 or even for 1.4046 - 1.4108 (in case of an extention) ...

Depends on timequality and behaviour prior to NFP ...


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif

2010-10-08_13h59_ EURUSD _ 015min _ (all ind).PNG (43.9 KB)

Nothing has been changed atm ...

A buy on dips modus still ... 1.3877 atm ... for a move to cross beyond 1.3965 at first ...

1.3892 ... 1.3877 ... 1.3857 - 1.3846 ... are our downside levels which should hold at first ...

Upside ... 1.3963 ... 1.3981 ... 1.4008 ... 1.4018 - 1.4046 or 1.4108 in case of an extention ...

Stops below 1.3837/ 28 limits ...


;-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-08_13h59_ EURUSD _ 015min _ (all ind).PNG Size: 44 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #303,238
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:05am Oct 8, 2010 7:05am
BUY STOPS AND SELL STOPS....WILL BE IN PROGRESS BEARSBULLS
  • #303,239
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:05am Oct 8, 2010 7:05am
Quoting Samir888
hi,

in the 15 min tf, the pa is exactly between the 100 EMA as Resistence and the 200 EMA as support.


sorry i mean 30 min tf
  • #303,240
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:08am Oct 8, 2010 7:08am
Quoting Samir888
Hi,

today looks like for me its critical decision. In terms of EWT we can have 2 valid counts. First one is that the recent top of 1.4020 is the end of 5 Wave and we are now in Correction mode, and the end of Wave A.

The other possibilty is that the uptrend was 3 Wave with a extension in a Extension and the recent top is the top of Wave 3 and we are in a 4 Wave Correction.

Finally the decision will be made by the news later where we are, so iam prepared for both ways to trade.

Good luck all



Hi Samir,

this "Zigzag" since yesterdays high to todays low can not be counted as the A-leg, because an A-wave has to either be an impulse or a leading diagonal.

But both legs does not good count as a impulse and picture shows for each leg down only 3 ways than rather 5.

Therefore this whole action since yesterdays top has to be a leading diagonal, which count is 3-3-3-3-3

When this leading diagonal is finished, we could get your proposed ABC-Correction, with the leading diagonal in the A-position

Hope that helps,


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