EURUSD

every tick up increases odds of ez breakup.

Heh. Yeah, well everyone screaming for Euro 1.5 tomorrow is enough for me to start glancing around for approaching rug pullers by itself.....

If we bounce at 3295, assuming we get there, it could be a pretty decent bounce....I suspect that number is on many professional's charts.....if we cut through and test from below on the daily timeframe......dollar bears will need to watch the f$%k out. Same applies for prolonged consolidation above/below......

Thanks....

Again from the daily timeframe....3450ish will also bare watching....potential to put the brakes on a bear movement.....

Good morning. Here is an excerpt from Le Figaro stating that there is a growing concern in Europe because of the rapid appreciation of the EURO leading to declarations like this: we will not be able to build Airbus in Europe anymore. There are also accusations to the Fed for leaving deliberately the USD to depreciate to help their exporters.

"La Commission tire la sonnette d'alarme. Jean-Claude Trichet critique une volatilité excessive. Le FMI promet de faire des propositions. La «guerre des changes» est au menu du G7, vendredi soir à Washington.

L'euro a franchi la barre du 1,40 dollar, jeudi, réveillant les inquiétudes des Européens pour leurs exportations dans un monde tenté par les dévaluations compétitives. Depuis un mois, l'euro a gagné 9% face à la monnaie américaine, et plus de 10% face au yuan. «À 1,40 dollar pour un euro, c'est dur, à 1,50, c'est terrible», estime Patrick Artus, responsable de la recherche chez Natixis. «Louis Gallois le rappelait récemment: à ce prix-là, on ne fabrique plus d'Airbus en Europe», ajoute l'économiste.

Cette hausse de la devise européenne tombe d'autant plus mal qu'à l'exception de l'Allemagne, la zone euro est nettement à la traîne de la reprise mondiale, engluée dans ses déficits et son chômage. Le FMI prévoit 1,7% de croissance en zone euro cette année, contre 2,7% aux États-Unis.

La Commission européenne a tiré la sonnette d'alarme jeudi. «Nous estimons actuellement que l'euro supporte une part disproportionnée de l'ajustement des taux de change dans le monde et que (…) cela pourrait affecter la reprise économique, les exportations», a indiqué jeudi le porte-parole d'Olli Rehn, commissaire aux Affaires économiques et financières.

Après avoir demandé une réévaluation significative du yuan, l'Union européenne se tourne vers les États-Unis, soupçonnés de laisser filer le dollar par une politique monétaire volontairement laxiste pour aider leurs exportations. «Pour l'Europe, les déséquilibres monétaires actuels sont une question cruciale dans un contexte de reprise fragile et d'incertitudes. Nous allons continuer à le dire aux Chinois mais aussi aux Américains et à M. Geithner», le secrétaire au Trésor américain, indique la Commission européenne."

Based on this, I am contemplating an intervention on the short side. Have a nice trading day all!

remind me at that time. ill wait for pa to build a map.

Absolutely - and don't forget not only exports, but marking down debt. After all, most of the dollar's decline over the past few weeks has been due to Fed POMO activities - twice this week alone (think it's a coincidence the Euro's best advances were seen on POMO days this week?). The Fed is doing what is best for the government, exporters, and politicians.....but bending over the citizens, as usual.

Will do. Naptime for me....catch you all on the flipside....

EU can't revive its slugish economy and this alone is killing long-term Euro prospect.
China strategically needs both EZ and US survival, so it's traped between accumulating USD and stabilizing EZ, for both weaker Eur is ticket.
Very top global guys face lot of troubles and have real headache to resolve situation, as move in any direction disturbs something else.
Manipulations produce strong moves on markets and big guys are profiting heavily on that. Attempt to find pure economical logic is close to impossible, so predicting on economic indicator is at least 70% speculation based on previous models that might or might not work.
Sentiments in Europe are to support weakening of Eur ASAP, as anything over 1.30, not to say 1.35 put EZ to knees.
Riots, revolutionary sentiments (capitalism failing) and similar $hit is just consequence and most likelly just early one. Bad example for US, too.

Technicals say long. 3975 could be a target, with a possible retest of 4000 levels.

Agreed.... Clear break needs at 1.3960 then the way to yesterday highs.....

Interesting situation. This is the currency strength against all other currencies.

yup seems like that.

maybe even before BFP .

My EU Chart... at favor of 1.396X as key resistance..........

I think you've been seeing exactly what I have this past few weeks. Sounds unbelieveble, but EU below 1.25 needs to be achieved before the divergences have played out.

The NFP number today is largely irrelevant I think. What will be important is how we all react to it. A quick blast above resistance before a RAPID decline maybe. The Daily close will be very interesting this week.

Can you explain what technicals say that. I'm a newby so would be nice to know at which indicators/patterns to look at. Sorry for my english

I wouldn't be so sure of the upside though
I'll wait before taking a position but the fact Frankie is making new low but no new high, in comparison to the previous hourly candle, shows no real strenght, but London ain't awake yet

yobs report today...the pressing question is martinis or bloody mary's for lunch. Good day to take off. I'll give them an hour or two, or until I gets thirsty

yup..forecast 1K..so obvious....

Daily GU n EU is very very interesting right now......mmm...

will be a -short day