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  • #302,961
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:24pm Oct 7, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting ocmsrzr
Well, the article you posted is a year and a half old. However, there has been a large amount of resistance to austerity measures in the last few days in the EZ....
Capital flows will be gradually diverting to china and other asian countries, Germany itself has been recovering well due to _exports_ to China, go figure .

We're still in the middle of a paradigm shift.

Some food for thought:
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5617
Traders are smartasses
  • #302,962
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:32pm Oct 7, 2010 10:32pm
Has anybody been noticing the similarities between eur/usd and gbp/usd? Both hit heavy resistance right at 0800 NY time. For cable, this was the 16000 psych level, and 8 month highs. For the euro, this was at the 14000 level.

Looking at other pairs, aud/usd hit resistance right at the same time, as did usd/dkk, and others i'm sure.

Does this show a weakness of the usd across all currency pairs, or less important usd pairs correlating to the resistance in the cable and eur charts???

I'm thinking is the resistance in cable and eur that are being reflected, rather that across the board usd weakness.
  • #302,963
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:36pm Oct 7, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting ocmsrzr
Has anybody been noticing the similarities between eur/usd and gbp/usd? Both hit heavy resistance right at 0800 NY time. For cable, this was the 16000 psych level, and 8 month highs. For the euro, this was at the 14000 level.

Looking at other pairs, aud/usd hit resistance right at the same time, as did usd/dkk, and others i'm sure.

Does this show a weakness of the usd across all currency pairs, or less important usd pairs correlating to the resistance in the cable and eur charts???

I'm thinking is the resistance in cable and eur that are...
Quite simply George Washington is on the nose.. market ran too fast got spooked by the US numbers gave up ground.
Those looking for correction got one.. The market played off the short side today.. and watch it bite them in the arse as the trend continues
  • #302,964
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:41pm Oct 7, 2010 10:41pm
Quoting ocmsrzr
Has anybody been noticing the similarities between eur/usd and gbp/usd? ....
This kind of a chart sometimes requires switching to GBP/USD to find the PA position. Anyone identifying the PA from the chart below deserves a pat on the shoulder.

Yes, ...............this IS my working chart ....................and not one of Bored to Loose's.
Attached Image
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #302,965
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:50pm Oct 7, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting Spsantos
Capital flows will be gradually diverting to china and other asian countries...

Capital flows will search for yield. Supply & demand in a speculative market. QE means low yield, cheap money supply, funds the move into higher yielding currencies. So the USD gets sold.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #302,966
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:01pm Oct 7, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting The Fool
Capital flows will search for yield. Supply & demand in a speculative market. QE means low yield, cheap money supply, funds the move into higher yielding currencies. So the USD gets sold.
Definitely... its all about the shifting of the economic power and with that comes a rush of currencies.
  • #302,967
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:09pm Oct 7, 2010 11:09pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Curren...90206.html?x=0

"Taken in sum, the various currency moves reflect an indication that as the world economy begins to recover, trade tensions are likely to resume as well.

"The level of global cooperation that had seemed quite strong at the height of the financial crisis appears to have slipped back quite sharply," Osborne said. "Certainly it's an escalation in the trade war if not the currency war." "


War? - we'll hit 'em hard with a barrage of cheap dollars!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #302,968
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:09pm Oct 7, 2010 11:09pm
Cannot decide either to pick 1.4492 or 1.3301

Someone help me Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!!
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #302,969
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:12pm Oct 7, 2010 11:12pm
NFP tomorrow, no rush.
  • #302,970
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:23pm Oct 7, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting Chicky
Cannot decide either to pick 1.4492 or 1.3301

Someone help me Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!!
1.4492 Its game over for the US dollar.. market is oversold on the index but it seems the wall of money keeps coming.. This isnt speculative ..Its a permanent exit IMO
  • #302,971
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:31pm Oct 7, 2010 11:31pm
Quoting Redeemed1
Riots all over EZ are worse than what I think most of us in the US realize. I have been told that 500K jobs for EACH country in the EZ are to be eliminated, and those jobs will be paid 75% up to 2 years as part of austerity measures. I can't find that fact. Anyone know about this?
Wait till this hits in US. In my state, California there are lots of public employees making more in retirement that when they were working. The Chief of Police in my city recently retired. His salary was 172,000 per year. His retirement salary, 225,000 plus health. 3% cost of living increase each year too. And this is not an isolated case.
  • #302,972
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:36pm Oct 7, 2010 11:36pm
waiting for the real action is tokyo close to london to newyork..Lots of news in the way...lets be patient.. more pips ahead
  • #302,973
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:37pm Oct 7, 2010 11:37pm
Quoting rbock
Wait till this hits in US. In my state, California there are lots of public employees making more in retirement that when they were working. The Chief of Police in my city recently retired. His salary was 172,000 per year. His retirement salary, 225,000 plus health. 3% cost of living increase each year too. And this is not an isolated case.
damn that makes me so mad. If I didn't have this bucket o' chicken in my lap, and if Family Guy wasn't on right now, I swear to god I would go out and throw a brick or something...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #302,974
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:38pm Oct 7, 2010 11:38pm
And the dollar being sold. but then stop and ask yourselves. For as many Euros being bought, and dollars being sold, there are the same amount of dollars being bought. You can't sell the dollar without a buyer!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #302,975
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:39pm Oct 7, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting The Fool
damn that makes me so mad. If I didn't have this bucket o' chicken in my lap, and if Family Guy wasn't on right now, I swear to god I would go out and throw a brick or something...
Don't worry. I 'll throw some with your name on them.....
  • #302,976
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:42pm Oct 7, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting rbock
Don't worry. I 'll throw some with your name on them.....
lol
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #302,977
  • Edited 11:56pm Oct 7, 2010 11:42pm | Edited 11:56pm
Quoting lasty
1.4492 Its game over for the US dollar.. market is oversold on the index but it seems the wall of money keeps coming.. This isnt speculative ..Its a permanent exit IMO
This isn't about "game over" for the USD....it's about leaving a steaming bag of dog shit on the front step of the EZ, ringing the bell, and running. Beggar thy neighbor, and all....what do you think is going to happen to EZ exports if the Euro continues to climb (one of my favorite charts ever here at FF is gator's "my ass hurts/WWIII chart")? What do you think happens if the US isn't buying the crap the rest of the world produces? And, what about the added pressure of competitive US exports due to a weak dollar? Worse, what happens if the world's largest consumer goes protectionist full-tilt? And don't forget that China's GDP (doctored or not) is quite baked by selling the US cheap crap....what if the US is no longer buying?

Enter QE2, which many feel, and imho I think they're correct, that at the very least a very large portion of QE2 is already priced in. If the Fed backs off and doesn't deliver (yet I think they will), insta-crash of risk. If they deliver, then we have a bliss rally, followed by a crash akin to a run-away toddler coming down hard off a sugar high.....the ultimate "buy the rumor, sell the news" event.

So, what does this mean for tomorrow? I don't know. But I don't think a bad number is certain - it is election time....a good number would prop risk - BUT, it might also cause fear of jepardizing the arrival of QE2...I look at a bad number as a crap shoot - how much of it is already baked into the recent pressure on the dollar? And, although I don't doubt a bad number would spike this pair higher - how long will it last given the implications of a bad number for overall risk (particularly when QE2 has not yet been guaranteed)? All of this against the backdrop of an extremely overbought EUR, in a trend without healthy pullbacks...
  • #302,978
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:47pm Oct 7, 2010 11:47pm
I see a lot of site citing different numbers as expectations for tomorrow's NFP. They range from +1k to 3K and 5K

Which one is the "right" one?
  • #302,979
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:48pm Oct 7, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting kentashiburo
I see a lot of site citing different numbers as expectations for tomorrow's NFP. They range from +1k to 3K and 5K

Which one is the "right" one?
It's all B.S. until tomorrow. And even tomorrow, given how often the numbers are revised the following week, it will likely be B.S.
  • #302,980
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:52pm Oct 7, 2010 11:52pm
Hi PV,
I agree with the BS 100%, however, there must be a commonly agreed expectation by the "traders".

Its not really clear which one is it. Even the biggest forex site / market news sites cant seem to be on the same page.

Anyone with a real news feed ?

Thanks
Quoting PriceVolume
It's all B.S. until tomorrow. And even tomorrow, given how often the numbers are revised the following week, it will likely be B.S.
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