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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,801
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:52pm Oct 7, 2010 9:52pm
i think there would be no intervention in this near time frame. see this news : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...ervention.html

Noda said that last intervention last month it just to rein an excessive movement, and there is no intention to bring yen to certain level.

hmmm why BOJ do this. well yesterday USD/JPY is also in an excessive movement right? why they are not intervening the market........
  • #19,802
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:52pm Oct 7, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Could be testing for supply.. take out some stops, lock in a few breakout shorts to fuel an up move?

Nothing is certain, any major player with the resources to move a market can come in at any time and do anything, case in point, George Soros & the Bank of England...
its possible....rapid come back 82.13 to 82.26
  • #19,803
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:55pm Oct 7, 2010 9:55pm
uj seller is waiting whether the BOJ still sleep, so they can sneak...
  • #19,804
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:56pm Oct 7, 2010 9:56pm
Intraday technical support sits at 82 psych level...

"Avoid return to sustained, large-scale intervention" does not rule out a short-term fix.

Doomberg do like to put spin on their stories.
  • #19,805
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:20pm Oct 7, 2010 10:20pm
This move is uncannily smooth down I must say though. I mean, not one real retrace and not one killer move in it all.
  • #19,806
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:11pm Oct 7, 2010 11:11pm
  •  Megara
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: MOMENTUM'S THE GODFATHER OF TRADING | 759 Posts
" Japan exporters,mutual fund sold yen 200 million of USDJPY from 82.30, driving the pair to low 82.15, says S'pore based dealer. Strong buy order staggered 82.15 to 82.00"
sources from MarketTalk

Trading is difficult nowaday. To buy or not to buy.There are so many questions if and then.
The funny thing is as soon as JPY session is over,the pair sink further.

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/article...n%2C+Deflation

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/article...+Of+G7+Meeting
Shake it off!Lick the Wound,Prey Again!
  • #19,807
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:23pm Oct 7, 2010 11:23pm
I suspose buy limit orders are the go with tight stops to catch quick drops and spikes up.

I got one hanging there at 82.10 with SL 81.90

Scalping till market decides bottom
  • #19,808
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:30pm Oct 7, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting Megara
" Japan exporters,mutual fund sold yen 200 million of USDJPY from 82.30, driving the pair to low 82.15, says S'pore based dealer. Strong buy order staggered 82.15 to 82.00"
sources from MarketTalk

Trading is difficult nowaday. To buy or not to buy.There are so many questions if and then.
The funny thing is as soon as JPY session is over,the pair sink further.

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/article...n%2C+Deflation

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/article...+Of+G7+Meeting...
sold yen and yen getting stronger? hmmm a little strange right...
  • #19,809
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:35pm Oct 7, 2010 11:35pm
  •  Megara
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: MOMENTUM'S THE GODFATHER OF TRADING | 759 Posts
NFP data, G7, IMF and World bank meeting.
Let the dust settle down first.
Shake it off!Lick the Wound,Prey Again!
  • #19,810
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:45pm Oct 7, 2010 11:45pm
0243 GMT [Dow Jones] High chance that Japan to conduct yen-selling intervention to curb JPY strength later in global day, even ahead of G-7 gathering, if U.S. September non-farm payrolls (due 1230 GMT) turn out considerably worse than expected and a USD/JPY break below 80.00 comes into sight, writes Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan for Barclays Bank. View exists among Tokyo traders that it's difficult for Japan to act before G-7 gathering in Washington, but Yamamoto says that G-7 gathering now less important than before because power shifting to G-20, where currency intervention is common among member countries. "As long as (Japan's intervention) stays within the realm of competitive 'non-appreciation', and does not become simple 'competitive devaluation', that would not cause a huge problem." Adds players will likely trim their USD/JPY short positions before 3-day weekend for Tokyo market; "the yen-selling intervention is effective if that is done when the dollar is bouncing in the market's natural tide." ([email protected])

Not today, this week, next week or next month = confirm?

It will happen if break 80....so sell all rallies is still 'ON' ?


Let c n better take a rest....

just my 2 cent...
  • #19,811
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:51pm Oct 7, 2010 11:51pm
  •  Megara
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: MOMENTUM'S THE GODFATHER OF TRADING | 759 Posts
Some traders expect intervention by buying option to hedge their fund. 85.00 strike? today? next week?
Shake it off!Lick the Wound,Prey Again!
  • #19,812
  • Oct 8, 2010 12:51am Oct 8, 2010 12:51am
Quoting yeri
sold yen and yen getting stronger? hmmm a little strange right...
yep strange info..
  • #19,813
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:03am Oct 8, 2010 1:03am
Quoting Nud
yep strange info..
Why strange? Someone had to buy yen to complete the transaction. If the yen strengthened due to someone selling it then there obviously was more demand than supply for the yen.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #19,814
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:17am Oct 8, 2010 1:17am
Quoting bug
Why strange? Someone had to buy yen to complete the transaction. If the yen strengthened due to someone selling it then there obviously was more demand than supply for the yen.
ok, I get it
thx
  • #19,815
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:26am Oct 8, 2010 1:26am
Quoting yeri
sold yen and yen getting stronger? hmmm a little strange right...
i think you misunderstood. let's look at the original statement:

Quote
Japan exporters,mutual fund sold yen 200 million of USDJPY from 82.30, driving the pair to low 82.15, says S'pore based dealer. Strong buy order staggered 82.15 to 82.00"
sources from MarketTalk


they sold 200 million yen worth of USDJPY, not 200 million yen. That's buying yen, not selling it.
  • #19,816
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:29am Oct 8, 2010 1:29am
Quoting deathbait
they sold 200 million yen worth of USDJPY, not 200 million yen. That's buying yen, not selling it.
Yeah, that makes a bit more sense, but either way, it always takes two sides to complete a transaction as I previously pointed out.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #19,817
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:33am Oct 8, 2010 1:33am
Quoting deathbait
i think you misunderstood. let's look at the original statement:




they sold 200 million yen worth of USDJPY, not 200 million yen. That's buying yen, not selling it.
this is more make sense. thanks. anyway the noda statement at bloomberg is very annoying, if the intervention just for reining excessive movement, then why they are not intervening while the USD/JPy almost break 82.00????
BOJ wake up man...
  • #19,818
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:36am Oct 8, 2010 1:36am
Interesting: China Sold Most Japan Debt on Record in August:
China sold a record amount of Japanese debt in August, snapping a seventh-straight month of purchases.
China cut Japanese debt holdings by a net 2.02 trillion yen ($24.5 billion), the Ministry of Finance said today in Tokyo, the biggest monthly sale in data going back to 2005. The larger nation bought a record 735.2 billion yen of Japanese debt in May and 1.04 trillion yen of the securities the following two months.
/.../
“Today’s ministry report suggests China had purchased yen- denominated assets not to diversify their foreign reserves but to temporary escape from the unstable financial situation in Europe,” Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo, wrote in a report today.
/.../
China sold 2.03 trillion yen in short-term debt and bought 10.3 billion yen in long-term securities, today’s data showed. Previous months had shown increases in short maturity securities, and sales of bonds and notes.

So this means that the Chinese are actively getting out of the yen, not into it, as some news headlines in August suggested. This is an interesting change. If we were to get more news like this, it could (with confirmation from PA) set the stage for a reversal. I understand that such a strong trend is difficult to reverse and I'm not suggesting that this is going to do it, but I'm just making notes here.

In other news, the Japanese cabinet wants to inject another $60 B worth of funds into the economy. This is peanuts compared to what is expected from the Fed, of course, and I don't think this will have a large effect.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #19,819
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:39am Oct 8, 2010 1:39am
"So this means that the Chinese are actively getting out of the yen" it's interesting
  • #19,820
  • Oct 8, 2010 1:50am Oct 8, 2010 1:50am
Quoting Nud
"So this means that the Chinese are actively getting out of the yen" it's interesting
actually, i expect to hear of them getting out of USD soon as well. They're not stupid enough to continue holding huge foreign reserves when they're under pressure to let their currency rise.
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