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  • #302,941
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:04pm Oct 7, 2010 7:04pm
Look at 1.46 as resistance in MN chart. 1.40 will be played by fundamentals, if price does not hold there my target is that TL
  • #302,942
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:12pm Oct 7, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
just read your contribution. this is getting more and more interesting. the only thing still disturbing me is that there are alternatives in the first place. i wouldn't mind playing to day again, and again, and again... Groundhog Day anyone?

the target was at around 4045, wasn't it? damn precision...



Hello Mr. Hatch,

LOL!!! Yes, ALTERNATIVES. That's it :-)

It is like in real life. Should I stay or should I go, left or right, up or down......

In Elliott wave you have one handfull of impulse patterns, and THREE handfull of correctiv patterns.

Sometimes the way of the price is crystall clear, another time you have to really hard guess. No, thats wrong. You have to weigh the likelihood.

That is what trading is all about. And sometimes there are situations, where the odds are 50:50.

Why is it, that we constantly have to adjust our counts? It is because of EURUSD are in a large corrective pattern. And like I sad before, we have 3 handfull of corrective pattern we have to deal with.

I love to use MM and Ichimoku, but without Elliott Wave pattern I would be lost like a strager in london metro without a map.


Good night, place and hedge your bets,

Markus (right at home, not so homeless like some people believe :-))
  • #302,943
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:20pm Oct 7, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting mercy seat

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif 2010-10-07 _ zigzagtracktracer (18h53 CET) EUR-USD 005min _ 000.GIF (23.1 KB)

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

2010-10-08 _ zigzagtracktracer (00h16 CET) EUR-USD daily _ 000.GIF (24.7 KB)

This daily chart simply shows some fib-enhancements ...
As discussed with some Bank traders ... and some larger Investors ... and on the other side with pro engaged Analysts (one of them is a pure Elliott waver) as well ... roughly that area between 1.3996 and 1.4240 should decide if (!) counts will work out for us or not ...

That pure Elliott Theory preferring man ... wants to see more or less a real confirmation with a breach below 1.3630 limits ...

We decide to play it bullish at first ... Elliott yes or not ... and we think it is a buy on dips modus at first ...

So if lower firstly ... then 1.3898 - 1.3877 or 1.3846 (in case of extention) should be seen as a buy op ...

We play for a move to cross above 1.3967 again ... beyond that we are looking for 1.4018 or even for 1.4046 - 1.4108 (in case of an extention) ...

Depends on timequality and behaviour prior to NFP ...


;-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-08 _ zigzagtracktracer (00h16 CET) EUR-USD daily _ 000.GIF Size: 25 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #302,944
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:25pm Oct 7, 2010 7:25pm
"We play for a move to cross above 1.3967 again"

Yes man, that is the plan :-)

Think we are inline with our analysis
  • #302,945
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:33pm Oct 7, 2010 7:33pm
NOW it breaks? after 3 hours deciding to test range trade scalping on a micro account, NOW it breaks?!

Does it have to do with the opening minute of Tokyo? Are they 9:30 open or 8:30?
  • #302,946
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:53pm Oct 7, 2010 7:53pm
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-10-08_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h36 CET) 1+2.pdf (18.5 KB)



ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors
08 Oct 2010, 01:36

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)


EUR/USD - to consolidate after setting 9-month high of 1.4030 yesterday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. EUR supported after ECB yesterday left its main interest rates unchanged, Trichet expressed unwillingness to contemplate easing monetary policy despite saying risks to economic outlook "slightly tilted to the downside". EUR/USD also buoyed by expectations of more QE measures from U.S. Federal Reserve; EUR demand from sovereign central banks. But EUR/USD topside limited by higher investor risk aversion, positions adjustment before weekend, IMF & G7 meetings; lingering concerns over economic & fiscal health of several euro-zone nations. Data focus: 0600 GMT German August manufacturing turnover, German August foreign trade. EUR/USD daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish, while stochastics stay elevated at overbought; but spinning-top candlestick pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 1.4030 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.4197 (Jan. 25 high), then 1.4216 (previous base set Dec. 22, 2009) and psychological 1.4500. Support at 1.3855 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.3797 (Wednesday's low), then 1.3635 (Tuesday's low), 1.3617 (Oct. 1 low), 1.3558 (Sept. 30 low) and 1.3506 (previous cap set Sept. 27).


While planing our things ... something to read from DJ in the time between ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-10-08_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h36 CET) 1+2.pdf   18 KB | 377 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #302,947
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:56pm Oct 7, 2010 7:56pm
to post referring to me... time will tell.. anyway i got a simple formula for trend reversal.. its a moving target but atm its 3679 then 3330...
right now its not staying above. 3957.. we will c.. its a moving target too.. but we didnt hold above..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #302,948
  • Edited 8:11pm Oct 7, 2010 8:00pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting DMA Trader
why do you care so much about that level ?
daily close ?
it was the close yesterday. a close there or below gives a big wick. the least it could of been at that level, was a doji. it closed 5 pips above.. but still close to the indecisive doji
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #302,949
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:13pm Oct 7, 2010 8:13pm
This big wick is more indicative of a psyhcological price rejection than a trend reversal.
  • #302,950
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:54pm Oct 7, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting Catch-22
This big wick is more indicative of a psyhcological price rejection than a trend reversal.
yep, no argument from me. they are found many places for many things. a day does not make a month. nor does 4 months make 3 years.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #302,951
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:24pm Oct 7, 2010 9:24pm
China back at it i guess?
  • #302,952
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:47pm Oct 7, 2010 9:47pm
had to make a new post to get rid the ugly post#
  • #302,953
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:48pm Oct 7, 2010 9:48pm
Quoting Wgold2
China back at it i guess?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-10-08_02h57_China - Italy An Important FX Reserves Investment Market - Xinhua.pdf (8.0 KB)


Oh yes ... here they are ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-10-08_02h57_China - Italy An Important FX Reserves Investment Market - Xinhua.pdf   8 KB | 375 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #302,954
  • Edited 10:19pm Oct 7, 2010 10:05pm | Edited 10:19pm
Riots all over EZ are worse than what I think most of us in the US realize. I have been told that 500K jobs for EACH country in the EZ are to be eliminated, and those jobs will be paid 75% up to 2 years as part of austerity measures. I can't find that fact. Anyone know about this?
  • #302,955
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:12pm Oct 7, 2010 10:12pm
1.3960 is a key resistance break look for yesterday high......
  • #302,956
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:12pm Oct 7, 2010 10:12pm
May 1st 2009?
  • #302,957
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:18pm Oct 7, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting Catch-22
May 1st 2009?
Sorry wrong article
  • #302,958
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:20pm Oct 7, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting Redeemed1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ic-crisis.html

Riots all over EZ are worse than what I think most of us in the US realize. I have been told that 500K jobs for EACH country in the EZ are to be eliminated, and those jobs will be paid 75% up to 2 years as part of austerity measures. I can't find that fact. Anyone know about this?
*AHEM*

The article is about Europe, not EZ.
Traders are smartasses
  • #302,959
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:21pm Oct 7, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting Redeemed1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ic-crisis.html

Riots all over EZ are worse than what I think most of us in the US realize. I have been told that 500K jobs for EACH country in the EZ are to be eliminated, and those jobs will be paid 75% up to 2 years as part of austerity measures. I can't find that fact. Anyone know about this?
Well, the article you posted is a year and a half old. However, there has been a large amount of resistance to austerity measures in the last few days in the EZ. I would agree with you that US media is not covering the situation closely.

Why isn't this better reflected in the eur/usd?

I'd say that partially it is because speculators believe that the US model of increasing debt and increasing the money supply won't be as effective as reducing debt. All usd pairs have been pricing in QE2 for some time now. That is the conventional wisdom, anyhow.

Perhaps someone has an opinion re capital flows from US to EZ?
  • #302,960
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:22pm Oct 7, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting Redeemed1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ic-crisis.html

Riots all over EZ are worse than what I think most of us in the US realize. I have been told that 500K jobs for EACH country in the EZ are to be eliminated, and those jobs will be paid 75% up to 2 years as part of austerity measures. I can't find that fact. Anyone know about this?
Not sure of the details but from what I've been hearing the EZ countries will be eliminating or cutting back many of the social programs in order to get debt under control which will likely lead to more riots. It's likely to get worse before it gets better.

It's kinda funny Europe is realizing that high debt is bad and the U.S is saying more spending and debt are needed to fix our problems. Something has to change fast or the US will soon be going through what Europe is going through now.
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