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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,761
  • Oct 7, 2010 2:34pm Oct 7, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting Nud
it could be but
tomorow after bad data expecting 80
now, today usdx +0,07% and yen index +0,74% so who winning again?
Today have bad news ?....in the forex factory the NFP Empolyment is a 1K previous -54K...so if NFP shows really 1K...the U/XX is UP UP UP UP...do you agree ?
  • #19,762
  • Oct 7, 2010 2:58pm Oct 7, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting takeshi
Today have bad news ?....in the forex factory the NFP Empolyment is a 1K previous -54K...so if NFP shows really 1K...the U/XX is UP UP UP UP...do you agree ?
sorry I should say, IF tomorow bad data then expecting 80
if not then 81,80
  • #19,763
  • Oct 7, 2010 3:45pm Oct 7, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting takeshi
Today have bad news ?....in the forex factory the NFP Empolyment is a 1K previous -54K...so if NFP shows really 1K...the U/XX is UP UP UP UP...do you agree ?
It has not necessarily been working that way.

Lately when there has been good US news it has helped every other currency more since it is interpreted as all being good and safe. The USD has appreciated mostly after terrible news releases.
  • #19,764
  • Oct 7, 2010 4:29pm Oct 7, 2010 4:29pm
What are people's thoughts on Price Action for the monetary policy meeting for USD/JPY?
  • #19,765
  • Oct 7, 2010 4:37pm Oct 7, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting CaveatEmptor
What are people's thoughts on Price Action for the monetary policy meeting for USD/JPY?
I think your president forbid them any actions because he want double US export
  • #19,766
  • Oct 7, 2010 4:41pm Oct 7, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting Nud
I think your president forbid them any actions because he want double US export
Why are you bullish on the dollar against the yen?
  • #19,767
  • Oct 7, 2010 4:44pm Oct 7, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting CaveatEmptor
Why are you bullish on the dollar against the yen?
I am?
oh yes but in long term
  • #19,768
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:20pm Oct 7, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting CaveatEmptor
What are people's thoughts on Price Action for the monetary policy meeting for USD/JPY?
Looking at today - POSSIBLE accumulation ahead of intervention..

My opinion only..
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  • #19,769
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:35pm Oct 7, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Looking at today - POSSIBLE accumulation ahead of intervention..

My opinion only..
Read my lips: There is NO intervention. Uncle Sam said Yoda &Cie naughty naughty and took the toy away from them.
  • #19,770
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:45pm Oct 7, 2010 5:45pm
Quoting pqt
Read my lips: There is NO intervention. Uncle Sam said Yoda &Cie naughty naughty and took the toy away from them.
Since when does Uncle Sam rule the world? These are the same people who have made threats and led to intense media speculation about a potential currency war in the making. If there is "no intervention, read my lips" as you put it, why then the need to make threats.

Japan's Gov't & CB should grow a back bone and support their exporters, and besides their economic backdrop does not support Yen being at a 15 year high and threatening an all time high.

Also why has UJ been in a 10 pip range most of the day, when every other major has sold off pretty hard against the Dollar? Just maybe it's being kept at that level for a reason...
  • #19,771
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:52pm Oct 7, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting pqt
Read my lips: There is NO intervention. Uncle Sam said Yoda &Cie naughty naughty and took the toy away from them.

I wonder whether they care about what the US thinks. China certainly does not , so I cannot imagine why Japan would. As a matter of fact, that might give them an incentive to do what China is doing and do the opposite of what the US wants.

After all, China has said that their country and their people come first, why would Japan act any differently?
  • #19,772
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:58pm Oct 7, 2010 5:58pm
I don't quite think that we're ready for One World Gov't just yet...

What's the latest on the Amero?

Just Googled it and nothing from any regular main stream news sources...
  • #19,773
  • Oct 7, 2010 6:03pm Oct 7, 2010 6:03pm
Quoting moonchild
I wonder whether they care about what the US thinks. China certainly does not , so I cannot imagine why Japan would. As a matter of fact, that might give them an incentive to do what China is doing and do the opposite of what the US wants.

After all, China has said that their country and their people come first, why would Japan act any differently?
Well they apparently do care.....else why spend $25b on intervention and not follow it through? Is it beause that action raised the ire of USA? China is a different beast.....it owns USA debt and it is the 2nd largest economy and soon it will be the largest, if China get what they want. China doesn't give a damn about Obama and his cronies.....Japan certainly does.

The real question is whether Japan cares more about what Obama & co think/say, or do they care about their own economic survival? The answer is obvious....just why Japan is doing nothing is not so clear
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,774
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:53pm Oct 7, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I have read some of the recent posts about waiting on the BOJ. I hope they were written in jest and I just did not get the joke. NOBODY outside of a few politicians in Japan know what the BOJ's next move will be, if any. They may intervene again @ 85, or wait till it drops to 83, or some other number, or not at all. The point is, the BOJ has offically interveined to strengthen the yen. Their future action will have nothing to do with pivot points, EW's, or fib levels. If they chose to act again, it will be at a time and price of their own chosing....
As I said a few weeks ago, there is no way to read the BOJ. The only thing we can be somewhat confident of is that there is a squel point at which they will act. What is that point? Consult your horiscope. BOJ has fired a gentle shot across the bow of 300pips. The market has said "screw your 300 pips, we are going lower". Don't be surprised if the next shot they fire is not so gentle. Just remember, if there is a 800-1000 pip move in the course of an hour or two, it will not matter if there is a stop-loss in place on your account or not. Caution.

Regards,
  • #19,775
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:04pm Oct 7, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting Beljevina
That March 2008 plunge and start of the TL is indicative of the sentiment that was in place back then. I think tomorrow's NFP will determine for us whether we continue the plunge down for this month, or bounce upwards before a likely resumption.

As for the BoJ, I'm frankly embarrassed for Japan's handling and lack of following through on setting and following their own policy, as opposed to doing this polite pandering to what others think. I can name a dozen insignificant states that know how to behave in times of national crisis, that Japan &...
Japan's culture is a lot diffent than Canda/US. There, it is all about "face" (not losing yours, or not causing someone else to lose theirs). BOJ officals warned for some time before the gentle 300 pip throat clearing. The market has clearly disregarded their warnings. Officals there continue to warn that they will act to protect their economy. It seems clear that the market is going to continue to push down....hard. The only question seems to be, at what level will BOJ act, and will that action again be "gentle" or something more painful?

Regards,
  • #19,776
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:11pm Oct 7, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Japan's culture is a lot diffent than Canda/US. There, it is all about "face" (not losing yours, or not causing someone else to lose theirs). BOJ officals warned for some time before the gentle 300 pip throat clearing. The market has clearly disregarded their warnings. Officals there continue to warn that they will act to protect their economy. It seems clear that the market is going to continue to push down....hard. The only question seems to be, at what level will BOJ act, and will that action again be "gentle" or something more painful?...
Where did they say that?
The minutes from their last meeting said nothing about intervention.
  • #19,777
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:20pm Oct 7, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting Catch-22
Where did they say that?
The minutes from their last meeting said nothing about intervention.
DailyFXTeam: $JPY: Noda says will take bold action as needed; says watching currency market with great interest; says action would include intervention

this was just an hour ago. Has been said many times in the last week or so.

Regards,
  • #19,778
  • Edited 8:39pm Oct 7, 2010 8:23pm | Edited 8:39pm
Quoting FX-Petra
BOJ has fired a gentle shot across the bow of 300pips. The market has said "screw your 300 pips, we are going lower". Don't be surprised if the next shot they fire is not so gentle. Just remember, if there is a 800-1000 pip move in the course of an hour or two, it will not matter if there is a stop-loss in place on your account or not. Caution.
I read this right after I read the following tidbit on the wires just minutes ago, then re-read yours, then googled.

Quote
Japanese Finance Minister Noda states, that intervention conducted on September 15th was intended to stop excessive moves, wasn't intended to be big-scale operation to target a specific level.

At first Noda's wording wasn't clear, but to paraphrase, Noda appears to be saying that next time it won't be the same type of ride that lasts 16 hours and moves 300 pips. If they apply themselves, presumably coordinate through other purchasing agents worldwide, they could shoot up the 500 pips in less than an hour - that would be the big-scale operation that Noda is referring to. I'll google further, but there's more detail that some don't know here and here.

FX-Petra, thanks as well for the cultural aspect reminder re "face" and it's relevance here. I'm actually very eager to visit Japan and learn more about their society one day.
  • #19,779
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:31pm Oct 7, 2010 8:31pm
No one knows when or if a "serious" intervention will take place. I just hope everyone is careful. What if U/J moved 800 pips against you in an hour, and your broker did not honor your stop-loss? It has happened before. I have no intrest in playing chicken with the BOJ. It is not a good place for a small retail trader to be. Fighting Central Banks is best left to big banks and hedge funds.

Regards,
  • #19,780
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:33pm Oct 7, 2010 8:33pm
Well, that would be great but I think as traders we should be looking which way the movement is going with tight stop losses incase that happens ...even buy above 83 or something set up prior if u're that sure.

I think they've lost face. So yea they better act soon if they don't want to be seen as impotent.
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