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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,741
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:05am Oct 7, 2010 10:05am
I don't know about that. Tomorrow is NFP day and looking ahead we have the IMF meeting which makes me think that even the Japanese aren't really sure what to do. We already know they're scared of everyone - Japanese companies as well as foreign politicians and bankers. I guess we won't know until Monday. All in all, I'm positioning myself to take part of a possible intervention but I am limiting my losses by using as little orders as possible (I have pyramid of buy stops in place).
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #19,742
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:12am Oct 7, 2010 10:12am
Is this all played by Chinese to make sure USD goes all the way down and then can bring them to negotiation much easier. Same time they can pin down the Jap economy.
  • #19,743
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:30am Oct 7, 2010 10:30am
Quoting Forexgogo
It seems 82 is a very significant point to see weather JP is going to intervene or not.

(1) JP intervenes right after it breaks 82 -- I believe this sounds pretty logical in terms of controlling yen.
(2) JP lets it down to 80 (or lower) because of the US-Euro pressure (G8 meeting is coming up soon). This case, JP just spent $2T for nothing on the 9-15 intervention.
(3) JP does not intervene at all -- it is stupid, but there is a possibility (hey they are bureaucrats anyway).

Your thoughts?
I could try 2 but they may do nothing...
I have theory this is not market this bubble is made by speculators (maybe Chinese) and want finish Japanese exporters
  • #19,744
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:55am Oct 7, 2010 10:55am
Quoting bug
Japan Official Hints At Difficulties In Winning Support On Forex Policy

Are they really such pussies? They're still one of the biggest economies on the planet. They should be acting it out like alpha dogs do, instead they're like Moomins who live in a dream world.
They still have that Hiroshima complex.
  • #19,745
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:59am Oct 7, 2010 10:59am
Quoting pqt
They still have that Hiroshima complex.
  • #19,746
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:16am Oct 7, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Nud
Shame? You should point that finger towards those who dropped that bomb, and who still treat the Japenese like their vassal.
  • #19,747
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:20am Oct 7, 2010 11:20am
Quoting pqt
Shame? You should point that finger towards those who dropped that bomb, and who still treat the Japenese like their vassal.
sorry but imo, it's not theme for joke

it's strange usdx go up, big drop on eu, gold but uj almost do nothing
  • #19,748
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:26am Oct 7, 2010 11:26am
hope it is about time to reverse ...

think the tweezer candles gives foundation / hope for formation of W on the 1hr chart

zoomed out the same chart on daily ... wonder if the trendlines form base for reversal ...





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earlier today, did not zoom out to see that a 50 pips drop could be played with the earlier triangle spotted ....


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  • #19,749
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:38am Oct 7, 2010 11:38am
so make zoom to weekly and then you see tl which I think we try break today (low 12.2008 and 11.2009)
  • #19,750
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:51am Oct 7, 2010 11:51am
Quoting Forexgogo
It seems 82 is a very significant point to see weather JP is going to intervene or not.

(1) JP intervenes right after it breaks 82 -- I believe this sounds pretty logical in terms of controlling yen.
(2) JP lets it down to 80 (or lower) because of the US-Euro pressure (G8 meeting is coming up soon). This case, JP just spent $2T for nothing on the 9-15 intervention.
(3) JP does not intervene at all -- it is stupid, but there is a possibility (hey they are bureaucrats anyway).

Your thoughts?
Forget intervention.................
If ppl speculate it more, they will not intervene .... this is for sure...

Next target 79 !!!
  • #19,751
  • Oct 7, 2010 12:15pm Oct 7, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting Nud
so make zoom to weekly and then you see tl which I think we try break today (low 12.2008 and 11.2009)
sorry ... can't catch what u are trying to say ...

perhaps u could post the weekly chart as u have interpreted ?

thanks .
  • #19,752
  • Oct 7, 2010 12:45pm Oct 7, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting TheArcher
sorry ... can't catch what u are trying to say ...

perhaps u could post the weekly chart as u have interpreted ?

thanks .
I drew it fast to you
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  • #19,753
  • Oct 7, 2010 12:53pm Oct 7, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting Nud
I drew it fast to you
oh i see now .

thanks .

this is how am seeing it ... together with ur trendline in red

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  • #19,754
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:05pm Oct 7, 2010 1:05pm
That March 2008 plunge and start of the TL is indicative of the sentiment that was in place back then. I think tomorrow's NFP will determine for us whether we continue the plunge down for this month, or bounce upwards before a likely resumption.

As for the BoJ, I'm frankly embarrassed for Japan's handling and lack of following through on setting and following their own policy, as opposed to doing this polite pandering to what others think. I can name a dozen insignificant states that know how to behave in times of national crisis, that Japan & her politicians could learn from. (Not that other G7 states have any greater amounts of credibility)
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  • #19,755
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:07pm Oct 7, 2010 1:07pm
mmmmm ........... 4hr chart ........


is it attempting a bear flag .... ?

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  • #19,756
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:09pm Oct 7, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Beljevina
I can name a dozen insignificant states that know how to behave in times of national crisis, that Japan & her politicians could learn from.
who are they ?
  • #19,757
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:09pm Oct 7, 2010 1:09pm
so looks like there is some supports for bulls, but BoJ don't help and sellers pressure is strong, to strong for this small bull
but why? we will find out some day

they will see efect this in next months
  • #19,758
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:19pm Oct 7, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting TheArcher
who are they ?
Different reasons/areas for each one: Norway, Russia, Switzerland, China, Iceland, Montenegro, Israel, Iraq, Canada, Germany, Korea .... They've been steadfast in many economic & subsistence issues for their people in the past - within their means - moreso than many perceive Japan to have been doing what's best for their people & future. JMHO.
  • #19,759
  • Oct 7, 2010 2:10pm Oct 7, 2010 2:10pm
today have a BOJ meeting ?... so...i think the BOJ interverntion later this meeting..
  • #19,760
  • Oct 7, 2010 2:30pm Oct 7, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting takeshi
today have a BOJ meeting ?... so...i think the BOJ interverntion later this meeting..
it could be but
tomorow after bad data expecting 80
now, today usdx +0,07% and yen index +0,74% so who winning again?
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