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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #861
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:44pm Oct 6, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting fkforex
This could possibly go with LG's breakout. Confirmation if you will

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...kos/EURJPY.jpg

Let me know if i'm getting it or still kind of off

Thanks again for this LG

I am watching this pair for a possible short breakout also. Remember however, that breakouts are marked with horizontal S/R lines (what I call ditches) , not diagonals. TLs (diagonals) are for taps (pullbacks) and channels.
  • #862
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:46pm Oct 6, 2010 8:46pm
Quoting steroidman
Covered US/CAD. 50 pips. Just what I saw. And now I see the top on GOLD, going in, ALL IN. 1352.25. Stop, 1365. Playing it for a big fall.
Good job. You may be the only person who earned pips today.
  • #863
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:00pm Oct 6, 2010 9:00pm
Quoting lawgirl21
I am watching this pair for a possible short breakout also. Remember however, that breakouts are marked with horizontal S/R lines (what I call ditches) , not diagonals. TLs (diagonals) are for taps (pullbacks) and channels.
Ya. I was watching this as a tap trade, not breakout. I'll be honest i didn't even think it looked like a breakout option. How many candles within a range do we need for it to be considered a 'ditch'? How many bounces are we looking at to create the ditch?

Thanks for the feedback LG
  • #864
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:03pm Oct 6, 2010 9:03pm
Believe it or not. I have figured out how the big banks and traders signal for big moves. And further believe it or not, I WILL share this, but I haven't figured out how to post my charts on ff. Going to bed. My IT guy promises me he will help me out tomorrow.
  • #865
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:12pm Oct 6, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting fkforex
Ya. I was watching this as a tap trade, not breakout. I'll be honest i didn't even think it looked like a breakout option. How many candles within a range do we need for it to be considered a 'ditch'? How many bounces are we looking at to create the ditch?

Thanks for the feedback LG
I was probably confusing in my earlier response to siam. A H1 breakout is based on the first four H1 candles of a new trading day. You can see from the charts I post where my new day is..at the dotted period separators. Yours may look somewhat different. A horizontal line is drawn at the high of the four candles and at the low of the four candles. This creates a 4 candle "ditch". After finding the directional bias, its a waiting game for a PA breakout in the anticipated direction. Sometimes the direction changes and the breakout is in the opposite direction. In that case, verify direction on other TFs and roll with it.

Another horizontal ditch, which is one of my favorites is a consolidation ditch..where PA trades for hours, sometimes days withing the horizontal lines (S/R). Breakouts occur the same way.
  • #866
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:16pm Oct 6, 2010 9:16pm
[quote=steroidman;4078968]Believe it or not. I have figured out how the big banks and traders signal for big moves. And further believe it or not, I WILL share this, but I haven't figured out how to post my charts on ff. Going to bed. My IT guy promises me he will help me out tomorrow.
quote]

That would be great..you just can't sell anything here. That's what it sounded like you might be setting up to do earlier when I said this may not be the thread for you.
  • #867
  • Edited 9:27pm Oct 6, 2010 9:25pm | Edited 9:27pm
Hi LG & Traders

Just my 2 cents (I learnt a lot from your thread) about the above chart.

:: I generally follow the trend like the E-J on Daily tf is heading north.

:: On H4 chart, there are two long lower shadows / wicks (in yellow box) and the closing were above support line (in green)

:: Overall the context favors long until proven invalid.

p.s. I have long this pair but yet to put up the chart in my thread.

If you don't mind, I read some good materials about "reading the long wicks" as listed in my thread post no. 1, edited 19-9-2010. It should help your PA trading.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246328

Cheers
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  • #868
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:39pm Oct 6, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting lawgirl21
But if we consider trading in prime time we are back at setting alarm clocks to try to catch a particular market. I can't do it and I think many others here cannot either. I'm not sure what you are saying about trading set-ups either.. are you saying look for 3 tap set-ups on the H1 chart, not H4. What are you purposing TAH?
The H1 idea was not mine. You use it and it was mentioned by another here. H4 to H1 is no problem....get two taps on H4, draw line, move to H1 to manage from there. As far as "time" goes, I proposed it because volatility increases in prime hours, and having an awareness of where that span of time is can help with trading. That will be the most likely time for a 3rd tap to occur.
  • #869
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:58pm Oct 6, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting traderathome
The H1 idea was not mine. You use it and it was mentioned by another here. H4 to H1 is no problem....get two taps on H4, draw line, move to H1 to manage from there. As far as "time" goes, I proposed it because volatility increases in prime hours, and having an awareness of where that span of time is can help with trading. That will be the most likely time for a 3rd tap to occur.
Let's try it.
  • #870
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:02pm Oct 6, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Let's try it.
..is ready for the "H4 2 tap, H1 move".
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  • #871
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:12pm Oct 6, 2010 10:12pm
..after 2nd tap on H4 chart, move to H1 for entry. Draw horizontal lines at top and bottoms of first four candles. Enter after breakout of PA, like a regular H1 breakout trade. I usually move to 15M chart and enter after closed candle completely outside of horizontal line (S/R) ( I was already in this trade.)

I use this combination often, but never with only 2 H4 taps..let's see how it works.
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  • #872
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:57pm Oct 6, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting lawgirl21
..after 2nd tap on H4 chart, move to H1 for entry. Draw horizontal lines at top and bottoms of first four candles. Enter after breakout of PA, like a regular H1 breakout trade. I usually move to 15M chart and enter after closed candle completely outside of horizontal line (S/R) ( I was already in this trade.)

I use this combination often, but never with only 2 H4 taps..let's see how it works.
Clarification, please. When you say, "Draw horizontal lines at top and bottoms of first four candles." you mean at the top and bottom of the candle BODIES, correct?
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  • #873
  • Oct 7, 2010 4:14am Oct 7, 2010 4:14am
Changed my stop loss to 1375 during the middle of the night. Down a buck or so now. Going out for a run, will explain the situation later, hopefully at a win. I am actually looking to hold this position for some time.
  • #874
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:27am Oct 7, 2010 5:27am
Quoting steroidman
Changed my stop loss to 1375 during the middle of the night. Down a buck or so now. Going out for a run, will explain the situation later, hopefully at a win. I am actually looking to hold this position for some time.
Post Title? Pair ID? What the dickens are you mumbling about?
  • #875
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:33am Oct 7, 2010 5:33am
NZDUSD was looking at this on the daily, produced a nice Fakey Insidebar set-up on previous resistance..now support.

Nice one on the AUDUSD too.
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #876
  • Oct 7, 2010 5:39am Oct 7, 2010 5:39am
USDJPY how low will it go?

Pinbar followed by insidebar...2 more pinbars, all with a nice down trend.
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #877
  • Oct 7, 2010 6:14am Oct 7, 2010 6:14am
Nice 3 touches on EURCAD, EURCHF looks very similar
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You don't have to be right, just don't be too wrong
  • #878
  • Oct 7, 2010 6:33am Oct 7, 2010 6:33am
Quoting lawgirl21
..after 2nd tap on H4 chart, move to H1 for entry. Draw horizontal lines at top and bottoms of first four candles. Enter after breakout of PA, like a regular H1 breakout trade. I usually move to 15M chart and enter after closed candle completely outside of horizontal line (S/R) ( I was already in this trade.)

I use this combination often, but never with only 2 H4 taps..let's see how it works.
Woke this morning out with +40 pips.
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  • #879
  • Oct 7, 2010 6:34am Oct 7, 2010 6:34am
Quoting traderathome
Clarification, please. When you say, "Draw horizontal lines at top and bottoms of first four candles." you mean at the top and bottom of the candle BODIES, correct?
Correct.
  • #880
  • Oct 7, 2010 6:35am Oct 7, 2010 6:35am
There is the PUMP. Well, actually two; one by the asian PPMs and the other by the euro PPMs. Both to get price high before the first CAD high impact release (about an hour ago).

Now the question becomes, since the next high impact release is also CAD, and coming up tomorrow during the London session, will the PPMs keep the price up until then? If they expect news such as to knock Humpty Dumpty off the wall, most likely so. It will give them time to shed longs and acquire shorts. Then, when that release hits.....they all pull the rug out from under this!

On the other hand, some outfits might get skiddish about holding that long, start selling, and trigger a domino effect....which could happen if all the PPMs are thinking this is already "very" high.

H4 PA has the look of a Double Top in process. Another 3-5 four hour candles up there ought to do it.

Anyway, I added to my short up here. Not on the basis of any particular strategy, but more on psychology.

WARNING: Speculation.
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