Any takers...?
- #19,703
- Oct 7, 2010 4:42am Oct 7, 2010 4:42am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts
Damn right, the chart never lies. I'd love to enter a long term buy here, but the chart just doesn't support what 'I'd love'........
Yes it does
you just have to try harder 
BOJ Fires At Yen, But Will Hit Dollar Instead
By ANDREW MONAHAN
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan stole a march on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week, in part because of concern over the strong yen -- but, ironically, the move will likely drag the dollar down further against the Japanese currency.
Japan's central bank surprised markets Tuesday by dropping its policy rate to a 0.00%-0.10% range, from 0.10%, and announcing that it will buy a wide range of assets, including more government bonds.
That has increased speculation that the Fed will take bold measures of its own, making the dollar even more unattractive. Since U.S. Treasury yields have more room to fall than their Japanese counterparts, which already are at ultra-low levels, expectations for a second round of Fed quantitative easing will weigh on the dollar/yen leading up to the U.S. policy-setting meeting Nov. 2-3.
That unintended outcome is unfortunate for Japan, whose export-driven economy is generally hurt by a stronger yen. A day after the BOJ move the dollar fell to a fresh 15-year low at Y82.75, frustrating Tokyo's efforts to revive its economy. The yen has now recouped all of its losses that followed Japan's massive intervention on Sept. 15.
The BOJ's latest move has some analysts talking about "competitive easing." The idea is that the BOJ and Fed will try to outdo each other in loosening monetary policy to weaken their own currencies.
The BOJ could certainly ease more, but it only stands to lose in any contest where success is measured by how low the central bank can push yields and the local currency.
A grim jobs market and deflation risk provide the Fed with all the reasons it needs to ease more. And there's no doubt an even weaker dollar would be welcome in Washington, where President Barack Obama earlier this year announced a goal of doubling exports in the next five years.
The BOJ may have thought its rate cut would help Japanese exporters, but in fact it's U.S. exporters who owe the BOJ a round. The day after the BOJ step raised expectations of a corresponding Fed move, the ICE Dollar Index, a key gauge that measures the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell to its lowest level since January at 77.301.
The spread between 10-year U.S. and Japanese government bonds, a key driver of the dollar's performance against the yen, is likely to narrow further, to the dollar's detriment.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell Wednesday to 2.357%, its lowest level since January 2009, but it still has plenty of room to fall. In contrast, the 10-year JGB yield appears to be bottoming out after hitting a seven-year low Wednesday at 0.820%; there's not much further it can drop, after all.
This all suggests the downtrend in dollar-yen will not abate. For the BOJ, it means that the battle to hold down the yen may get much trickier ahead.
- #19,705
- Oct 7, 2010 4:50am Oct 7, 2010 4:50am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Yes it does
BOJ Fires At Yen, But Will Hit Dollar Instead
By ANDREW MONAHAN
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
I saw this post at forexlive. The author is someone named 'kanov'. I hope he won't mind me re-posting it here....he makes some interesting points:
It’s not about China only…seems like Japan is so afraid to the US that they are so nervous thinking what Noda have to say at the G7 meeting, giving reasons why they intervened last month. Duhh…how many percent has the dollar index lost since baldy Ben spoke of a possible QE? I repeat…possible QE…no money flow from the central bank yet…4%??? Isn’t that currency devaluation as well??? F***ing hypocrites…doesn’t matter how you do it…if the extreme stems around one currency…aud/usd at record levels, usd/jpy at record levels, usd/chf at record levels, usd/thai bht at record levels, seems like the country with the crazy dollar is the one that needs to do some explaining…they almost deliberately attempt to derail other’s economy to lift one’s up while it’s the other countries like Jap and China that has to do the explaining. On the other hand, EU is pressuring China to lower yuan as well while months ago it was China that re-iterated its support towards EU economy. Talking about biting the hands that feed you. Amazing.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
hello,
i belive that will be a good point for BOJ not to enter in market at the same level used in the last intervention... simply because the force of the market at the moment is too big to compare with ... and boj lost some battles and if will not asses very well next steps it is possible to lose the war.
what do you think ? will be good to defend the same level ?
10x
- #19,707
- Oct 7, 2010 4:54am Oct 7, 2010 4:54am
I saw this post at forexlive. The author is someone named 'kanov'. I hope he won't mind me re-posting it here....he makes some interesting points:
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
- #19,708
- Oct 7, 2010 4:59am Oct 7, 2010 4:59am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Tööröh | 14,292 Posts
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
- #19,709
- Oct 7, 2010 4:59am Oct 7, 2010 4:59am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts
You know what they say about 'the best layed plans of men and mice'......
I saw this post at forexlive. The author is someone named 'kanov'. I hope he won't mind me re-posting it here....he makes some interesting points:
It’s not about China only…seems like Japan is so afraid to the US that they are so nervous thinking what Noda have to say at the G7 meeting, giving reasons why they intervened last month....
Interesting reading RJ,
It's definitely in the USD the problem is and not JPY. But if you look at it another way also, the BOJ might be temporarily satisfied with having the JPY bounce for 19 days as the country made heaps of cash on that stalling price.
Not sure If I will add on to the small position I have right now but I reckon this would be a good zone to buy...
- #19,711
- Oct 7, 2010 5:06am Oct 7, 2010 5:06am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Tööröh | 14,292 Posts
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
- #19,712
- Oct 7, 2010 5:07am Oct 7, 2010 5:07am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Interesting reading RJ,
It's definitely in the USD the problem is and not JPY. But if you look at it another way also, the BOJ might be temporarily satisfied with having the JPY bounce for 19 days as the country made heaps of cash on that stalling price.
Not sure If I will add on to the small position I have right now but I reckon this would be a good zone to buy...
I said before that I think BOJ is unlikely to get into this before NFP, and I still think that. They said they would do it in the event of 'sudden swings'...but as we have seen, it was just a bluff. A bad NFP may seem them get into it tomorrow, but I doubt it. I reckon next week is when they will make a move....if they're going to. Or.....after G7 maybe. Who knows?!?!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #19,713
- Oct 7, 2010 5:15am Oct 7, 2010 5:15am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts
Not for me man....not until next week at earliest. I want to see Nfp and it's results out of the way first. I won't be around for London and USA sessions tomorrow, so my trading is pretty much done for the week.
I said before that I think BOJ is unlikely to get into this before NFP, and I still think that. They said they would do it in the event of 'sudden swings'...but as we have seen, it was just a bluff. A bad NFP may seem them get into it tomorrow, but I doubt it. I reckon next week is when they will make a move....if they're going to. Or.....after...
No trading tomorrow?
--> That is a good point, to wait for NFP and as it goes for the bluffing part; I think its hard for them (kan) to be laughed at
But who is shorting now? would be interesting to know... Can't be all SL's
- #19,715
- Oct 7, 2010 5:18am Oct 7, 2010 5:18am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Tööröh | 14,292 Posts
No trading tomorrow?
That is a good point, to wait for NFP and as it goes for the bluffing part; I think its hard for them (kan) to be laughed at
But who is shorting now? would be interesting to know... Can't be all SL's
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
In normal times, yes. In current times, with QE II on everyone's mind, it would send the dollar to the basement. The worse the numbers get, the more easing will be expected, thus driving the dollar lower. I absolutely hate this trading environment - you have second guess each and every significant news piece and then make a decision. Drives me nuts.
good point and that I think tomorrow we may see 80
- #19,718
- Oct 7, 2010 5:29am Oct 7, 2010 5:29am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
No trading tomorrow?
That is a good point, to wait for NFP and as it goes for the bluffing part; I think its hard for them (kan) to be laughed at
But who is shorting now? would be interesting to know... Can't be all SL's
NFP was the catlyst that started this bear run in May....from about 94-ish. NFP could help turn it around.....or not!....
No, no trading tomorrow night.....I'm heading up the mountains for the weekend
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.