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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #841
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:35pm Oct 6, 2010 7:35pm
Just entered long.
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  • #842
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:49pm Oct 6, 2010 7:49pm
Greetings, LG --

Wonderful thing you have started here.

I noticed some posts back your idea to select perhaps three pairs to monitor 'continuously.' OK, that's too strong, but at least to keep up on the screen for frequent checking.

Who would be the most serious candidates?

-- 3 of the 6 key majors?
-- some greater variety to add diversity and lower correlation?
or maybe some other decision rule for selection.

The constant rotating, even on H4, is wearing me down. I would love to make good choices on just a few for more thorough attention.

Any thoughts?

Best regards, Forest
  • #843
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:56pm Oct 6, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting duffypratt
This chart really puzzles me. As I understood this method, TLs get drawn from the lows on an uptrend, and the bounce is off those lows. On top of that, your TL gets pierced at one point and gets tapped three times before what you call a third tap. What am I missing?
You aren't missing anything. I was! For shorting, the line must be on top and the slope of the line must be DOWN. For going long, the line must be on the bottom and the slope of the line must be UP. My line was incorrect.

(I plead, "Only here for 2 days, judge.")
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  • #844
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:04pm Oct 6, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Seems to me that if the H4 is different, then the daily, weekly and monthly TFs have to be different as well. Thats why we have to trade what we see on our own charts, which was my whole point in starting this thread. Otherwise, this would really be a signal service.

Seems also that the traders who are getting the signals before others are "forging the way" for the later signals. On a good trend, wouldn't all signals catch up?
Yes LG, my misstatement. As well as the H4, the D,W and M will also differ. I guess it is not mentioned much as the difference relative to the overall size of the candles is less on these, than on the H4. The H4 differences can be enough to show a setup with charts from one broker, but not from another broker.

And a 2nd "yes"; all that can be done is to say, "Trade what you see."
  • #845
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:08pm Oct 6, 2010 8:08pm
Well, it got the pump. Now the PPMs will likely just keep it up in this area until the CAD high impact release. If PA is to drop, it makes no sense for them not to fully use the intervening time to shed longs and take on shorts. I have taken a short position up here, even though of the RSIs, the D RSI is newly up.

WARNING: Speculation.
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  • #846
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:30pm Oct 6, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting traderathome
Yes LG, my misstatement. As well as the H4, the D,W and M will also differ. I guess it is not mentioned much as the difference relative to the overall size of the candles is less on these, than on the H4. The H4 differences can be enough to show a setup with charts from one broker, but not from another broker.

And a 2nd "yes"; all that can be done is to say, "Trade what you see."
If you want to catch a setup that someone else has reported, but your chart isn't on the same timeframe as theirs, there is an alternative. All you need to do is back up to the 1H chart, zoom out, and look for the same set-up. Every time a four hour candle opens, a one hour candle also opens. Thus, its possible to get a picture of what someone is talking about on the H1 charts, even if its not a perfect solution. There are times when it might be a better solution than missing a promising trade.
  • #847
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:34pm Oct 6, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting fkforex
Hi all,

I found your thread today and have read quite a bit of it. I have a question regarding a potential trade but was looking for confirmation on what I'm looking at.

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...kos/GBPUSD.jpg

As you can see it's a 4hr GBP/USD chart with a mess on there, but my question is in the yellow square and circle at the top. Should I be looking at the square and play this as a consolidation/breakout trade, or should i concentrate more on the circle as a potential 3 tap sell trade? As it stands right...
As I understand it, the RSI simply does not matter as much for breakout trades. Here, you have a possible breakout trade, and a possible triple tap at once. The nicest thing would be for price to break south. Thus your TT and Breakout would give you two reasons for entering the same trade. In that case, your question doesn't matter.

If price breaks north, your TT setup was false (and its not really part of this system since you only have two of the three TFs in your favor). But it might still be a breakout worth taking.
  • #848
  • Edited 9:13pm Oct 6, 2010 9:01pm | Edited 9:13pm
The topic is "3 Taps on H4". And an alternatiave of using a condensed H1 to show same as H4 is on the table. Personally, I like it. The H1 is universal for all broker servers.

I propose another consideration; time.

Look at the attached H1 chart. Well, first let me say that of the W, D and H4, only the RSI on the W has not rolled over down. Ok, back to H1. The TL might seem to be the area to anticipate going short. But if you look closely you will see verical time lines in the background that bracket prime market trading hours. So what?

Well, as we approach the prime hours, PA may indeed hit the TL. But prime hours traders may also pump PA up past the TL! Why? If PA is destined to drop, the PPMs could always pump it high first to improve taking on positions before the drop! So what?

If PA breaks up thru TL, some might shelve the thought of going short and this method, and instead go long on a "H1 breakout" long trade. And this might not work out well if the pump is preparatory for a huge drop, which you have taken your eyes off of. And such could happen with GU. Note that between 6 and 9 hours from now there are 3 high impact releases. This is the stuff that can cause preparatory "reverse" drives and whipsaws....heck, anything could happen!

In conclusion, taking "time" into account with this method might be an enhancement. Unfortunately, time lines get scrunched up on H4....another reason to consider the H1 alternative.
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  • #849
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:13pm Oct 6, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
Greetings, LG --

Wonderful thing you have started here.

I noticed some posts back your idea to select perhaps three pairs to monitor 'continuously.' OK, that's too strong, but at least to keep up on the screen for frequent checking.

Who would be the most serious candidates?

-- 3 of the 6 key majors?
-- some greater variety to add diversity and lower correlation?
or maybe some other decision rule for selection.

The constant rotating, even on H4, is wearing me down. I would love to make good choices on just a few for more thorough attention....
I don't like looking at everything either and will probably stop it after this week. I really don't think it matters too much which ones you pick, maybe others have stronger opinions about it. I know traders who make a good living only trading EURUSD and others who only trade GBPUSD. I would pick both and one more for a little more variety.
  • #850
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:23pm Oct 6, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting traderathome
The topic is "3 Taps on H4". And an alternatiave of using a condensed H1 to show same as H4 is on the table. Personally, I like it. The H1 is universal for all broker servers.

I propose another consideration; time.

Look at the attached H1 chart. Well, first let me say that of the W, D and H4, only the RSI on the W has not rolled over down. Ok, back to H1. The TL might seem to be the area to anticipate going short. But if you look closely you will see verical time lines in the background that bracket prime market trading hours. So what?

Well,...
But if we consider trading in prime time we are back at setting alarm clocks to try to catch a particular market. I can't do it and I think many others here cannot either. I'm not sure what you are saying about trading set-ups either.. are you saying look for 3 tap set-ups on the H1 chart, not H4. What are you purposing TAH?
  • #851
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:24pm Oct 6, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting traderathome
The topic is "3 Taps on H4". And an alternatiave of using a condensed H1 to show same as H4 is on the table. Personally, I like it. The H1 is universal for all broker servers.

I propose another consideration; time.

Look at the attached H1 chart. Well, first let me say that of the W, D and H4, only the RSI on the W has not rolled over down. Ok, back to H1. The TL might seem to be the area to anticipate going short. But if you look closely you will see verical time lines in the background that bracket prime market trading hours. So what?...
It's LG's thread, and we should respect whatever she wants. I was simply trying to show a way that people could look at LGs setups when they aren't with a broker on the same timebreaks.

If one did try to adapt this system to a one hour system, then there would pretty much have to be a rule that the second leg of the three must be at least 4 candles ahead of the first. It would also mean checking four TFs for each set-up: the RSIs on W,D, and H4, and then the H1 for trendlines and the entries. I think that overly complicates things, but it might make for better communication between people with different brokers.
  • #852
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:43pm Oct 6, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting duffypratt
It's LG's thread, and we should respect whatever she wants. I was simply trying to show a way that people could look at LGs setups when they aren't with a broker on the same timebreaks.

If one did try to adapt this system to a one hour system, then there would pretty much have to be a rule that the second leg of the three must be at least 4 candles ahead of the first. It would also mean checking four TFs for each set-up: the RSIs on W,D, and H4, and then the H1 for trendlines and the entries. I think that overly complicates things, but it might...

I could see this working on H1 breakout trades, in fact I am setting up a screen right now for breakouts only. The market seems a bit crazy right now for 3 tap H4 trades. (I went out for dinner with set positive trades and came home to negative trades.) For these breakouts, I am looking for confirmation still on 3 TFs, but the H1, H4 and Daily only..weekly does not need to confirm for this method.

I do not believe it is necessary that we are all on the same page with the same pairs. What I hope to achieve is that people are making money using some of these ideas and these methods, showing the charts and the analysis behind the trade. This is getting too complicated
  • #853
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:09pm Oct 6, 2010 10:09pm
H1 Breakout Trade possibility: H1 was down when set trade up
H4 - down
Daily - down
We're looking for PA to break down below support line before entering.
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  • #854
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:11pm Oct 6, 2010 10:11pm
Same kind of trade as above
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  • #855
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:12pm Oct 6, 2010 10:12pm
Hey LG,


Can you please tell us how do you trade Breakouts by giving us number example? suppose the range is from 50 to 100

Where do you put your buy and where is the stop loss

where is the sell stop and where is the stop loss for it.

Thanks in advance
  • #856
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:13pm Oct 6, 2010 10:13pm
Same set-up
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  • #857
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:17pm Oct 6, 2010 10:17pm
This could possibly go with LG's breakout. Confirmation if you will

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...kos/EURJPY.jpg

Let me know if i'm getting it or still kind of off

Thanks again for this LG
  • #858
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:27pm Oct 6, 2010 10:27pm
Hi Lg

Just thought i'd ask what your thoughts are on fading diagonal lines when they are about to run into a heavy horizontal support or Resistance level. In my experience diagonals work best when there is some cofluence whether it be fibs or a combo of of as many factors that you can find which put the trade in your favor.
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  • #859
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:29pm Oct 6, 2010 10:29pm
Covered US/CAD. 50 pips. Just what I saw. And now I see the top on GOLD, going in, ALL IN. 1352.25. Stop, 1365. Playing it for a big fall.
  • #860
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:38pm Oct 6, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting Siam
Hi Lg

Just thought i'd ask what your thoughts are on fading diagonal lines when they are about to run into a heavy horizontal support or Resistance level. In my experience diagonals work best when there is some cofluence whether it be fibs or a combo of of as many factors that you can find which put the trade in your favor.
I much prefer S/R levels to diagonal lines. In my experience the horizontal S/R lines are honored by PA far more often than are TLs.

When we look for 3 tap H4 trades with the TLs, that is exactly what we are doing with the TFs confirmation..trying to find the trend bias and using it to our advantage, or putting the trade in our favor, as you said. This week, however, PA has defied us more often than not.
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