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  • #302,141
  • Edited 6:13pm Oct 6, 2010 5:47pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting DMA Trader
7 june 2010 nice post.

the day EUR bottom
Yeah, man thanks for reminding me, sometimes I amaze myself too

BTW, check that EURGBP, you might like it

P.S: broke 61.8 on Fib 100% (full retrace) expected, target 0.9000+ - 0.9150

not tomorrow of course *LOL*
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Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #302,142
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:38pm Oct 6, 2010 6:38pm
Well bulls continues to dig their own ditch.

Downsloping rsi channel still not breached. There's a nice correlation between the rsi channel and the price channel on this chart indicating a very bearish picture.

With bull sentiment over 97% this week and over 90%+ for the past 2-3 weeks, means extremes almost never seen before. Dollar bulls has hit a record low of 4% this week as well..

I think we will range for the next 24 hours and make a final top on Friday after NFP. As you see, every time price hits the upper channel and the rsi channel we get a retrace. I am already short but my prediction according to this chart, is that we'll hit 1.4010/25 on Friday where I'll add shorts.


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  • #302,143
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:47pm Oct 6, 2010 6:47pm
It seems like there has been a bearish divergence almost this whole ride up...I'm not gonna put my account on that now seein as how i've lost quite a few trades on the way up playing a divergence. I may wait for a couple daily bearish candles before i play much short. I know that's not getting in on the top of a bear move but it's better than going short in the middle of a bull move (which i've done a few times to erase my august gains thru now... any thoughts?
assume the position...whichever that may be
  • #302,144
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:56pm Oct 6, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting atate49
any thoughts?
stick to the long side in a strong bull... That said, I reckon this run is now over-extended... Mind you, I said that last night as well, LOL

Either that or it's going into blow-off mode...
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  • #302,145
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:10pm Oct 6, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting atate49
It seems like there has been a bearish divergence almost this whole ride up...I'm not gonna put my account on that now seein as how i've lost quite a few trades on the way up playing a divergence. I may wait for a couple daily bearish candles before i play much short. I know that's not getting in on the top of a bear move but it's better than going short in the middle of a bull move (which i've done a few times to erase my august gains thru now... any thoughts?
Take a breath.....this is a tough thing we are all involved in. I have been at the trading business for almost 2 years now and I have felt every emotion possible....and few that I never knew were possible. Listen to your own advise....step back, wait for things to setup the way you want them to setup. Playing divergence is tough.....picking tops and picking bottoms is even tougher.....I am currently short...in a losing position....short from 1.3900....your best friend is the trend.....when you go against the trend be prepared to watch the price action move around until it finds a reversal point......don't beat yourself up on losing the gains.....just learn from what you are doing. I learn everyday......

Cheers.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #302,146
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:20pm Oct 6, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting atate49
It seems like there has been a bearish divergence almost this whole ride up...I'm not gonna put my account on that now seein as how i've lost quite a few trades on the way up playing a divergence. I may wait for a couple daily bearish candles before i play much short. I know that's not getting in on the top of a bear move but it's better than going short in the middle of a bull move (which i've done a few times to erase my august gains thru now... any thoughts?

divergences can go on for a long time, the longer the more downside usually. Playing this can be both tempting and very difficult. It's hard to pick tops but I am trying to show what has happened and is likely to happen again. This means I am carefully planning my trades at wich price to enter only IF the other aspects meets the criteria. I like to see as many confluences as possible. Usually at these points we at least get a fair retrace. Proper MM is essential.
  • #302,147
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:24pm Oct 6, 2010 7:24pm
mids are rarely not reached..
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #302,148
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:27pm Oct 6, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif

2010-10-06_10h56_ EURUSD _ 060min _ (all ind).PNG (44.4 KB)

BB breakout in der Mache ...

Okay - we have seen our BB breakout ... as discussed and expected and traded ... with our friends ... directly from our friendly hideaway spaces ...

And it crossed above 1.3896 ... and above 1.3917/ 20 area (200ma in weekly chart) ... and it is that simple ... that we pipped it higher ... reversed it at 1.39438 ... pipped it down a little bit ... closed all positions in the time between ... und weiter gehts nun ...

Die folgenden 'Grundansätze' sollten dem Kiosk als Gerüst vollkommen genügen :


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-10-07_01h28_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors.pdf (15.0 KB)


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-10-07_01h28_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors - 2.pdf (8.3 KB)


Charts is charts ... but profits are profits ... think about ok ... got no further time for this place now ... und tschüss ... bye bye
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-10-07_01h28_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors.pdf   15 KB | 349 downloads
File Type: pdf 2010-10-07_01h28_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors - 2.pdf   8 KB | 303 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #302,149
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:27pm Oct 6, 2010 7:27pm
thanks everyone for the step back and look reminder. I had gotten away from drawing trendlines and just trading fib and support lines. I now realized that some of my entries on this ride up have not been the best places to get in (like entry short above the lower tl and long right up against the upper tl). gotta do my homework thoroughly before a trade..easy enough but somehow I had forgotten a peice of the puzzle!
assume the position...whichever that may be
  • #302,150
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:41pm Oct 6, 2010 7:41pm
Good afternoon guys, 4000 perhaps tonigh
The Chonchy
  • #302,151
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:47pm Oct 6, 2010 7:47pm
Australian employment change news just sent AUDUSD to skyrocket 70 pips instantly. Hopefully, this might help send EURUSD to 1.4025 later on.
  • #302,152
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:55pm Oct 6, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting mercy seat
European Forex Technicals: More USD Woe Expected

By Francis Bray

A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-10-06_08h07_European Forex Technicals - More USD Woe Expected.pdf (11.7 KB)




Intraday EUR/USD: Tuesday's strength is likely to spill into Wednesday's session as the 1.3896 upside target comes into view. 1.3896 represents 61.8% Fibonacci...
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif

2010-10-07_02h31_ EURUSD _ weekly _ (all ind).PNG (39.4 KB)

View from Francis more than 16 hours ago :

Intraday EUR/USD: Tuesday's strength is likely to spill into Wednesday's session as the 1.3896 upside target comes into view. 1.3896 represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.5145/1.1876 decline and 1.3896 is effectively the last line of defense protecting the psychologically-important 1.4000 level. Good support lies at 1.3745 and only a break below 1.3690 would suggest a return to Tuesday's low at 1.3637.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.


ok ... we play it up firstly ... 1.3980 ... or 1.4016 ++

later we expect colapsing ... 1.3875 ... 1.3853 ... 1.3837 etcetera


definately no time anymore ... will post only some updates ...
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2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #302,153
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:55pm Oct 6, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting chonchy
Good afternoon guys, 4000 perhaps tonigh
Could be amigo. Sometimes things get a little slow on the day or so before NFP, though, y'know. I wonder what they're thinking over at the B of J?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #302,154
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:56pm Oct 6, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting sonicpunk32
Australian employment change news just sent AUDUSD to skyrocket 70 pips instantly. Hopefully, this might help send EURUSD to 1.4025 later on.
I don't fancy fading that, usd breaking records left, right & center...
  • #302,155
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:03pm Oct 6, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I don't fancy fading that, usd breaking records left, right & center...

What do you mean by that? you don't fancy fading that?


thanks
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #302,156
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:06pm Oct 6, 2010 8:06pm
Quoting Faller
What do you mean by that? you don't fancy fading that?


thanks
Selling the spike high, even though it's just been marked up right into the record high for that pair.

To "fade" a movement in price is to trade against it...
  • #302,157
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:07pm Oct 6, 2010 8:07pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Selling the spike high, even though it's just been marked up right into the record high for that pair.

To "fade" a movement in price is to trade against it...

Cheers...thanks
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #302,158
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:07pm Oct 6, 2010 8:07pm
Quoting enterfx
Well bulls continues to dig their own ditch.

Downsloping rsi channel still not breached. There's a nice correlation between the rsi channel and the price channel on this chart indicating a very bearish picture.

With bull sentiment over 97% this week and over 90%+ for the past 2-3 weeks, means extremes almost never seen before. Dollar bulls has hit a record low of 4% this week as well..

I think we will range for the next 24 hours and make a final top on Friday after NFP. As you see, every time price hits the upper channel and the rsi channel...

Interesting observation on H1. Notice the yellow midline acting as earlier support now becoming resistance. When these line crosses and price drops below it can create a nice add to my confluence arsenal. Maybe enough to kick ass.

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  • #302,159
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:09pm Oct 6, 2010 8:09pm
No sign of BOJ yet
  • #302,160
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:12pm Oct 6, 2010 8:12pm
Group of 7 & meeting with the IMF this weekend - currency wars & all - I'm sure they'll figger everthing out - I doubt we see any radical moves right before that...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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