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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,581
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:03am Oct 6, 2010 10:03am
Quoting PipMaxzz
I dont think Japanese want to see this going down the drain. What will happen to the Jap industries? Jap govt made it clear that they will do all they can to keep the currency under control. They usually walk the talk.

If UJ stays at this level, NFP will cause a free fall, because good NFP will drive the equities up, UJ down; bad NFP will raise the question of safe haven, UJ down again. So either way Yen is on the loosing side.

Now the BOJ has no choice but to intervene tomorrow first thing in the morning. Time to go long?
I am long and I do expect BOJ to intervene, I just do not know when, so I have a very small position.

However, a really bad NFP, which I would expect after today's terrible US news, would actually drive USD up in most pairs such as EU, GU and AU due to risk avoidance and may drag UJ up as well as a result. Therefore it is possible that BOJ may wait to see if bad NFP news does the work for them.
  • #19,582
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:10am Oct 6, 2010 10:10am
I wouldn't be surprised if BoJ intervenes at any time now. JP newspaper tells that JP gov is under of the tremendous pressure of business community. Also politicians are criticizing the efficiency of gov's economic management.

One thing is clear to me: if JP gov does not intervene, it will waste all the money they have spent in the past 4 weeks. I don't think JP gov just keeps watching uj going down.

I will be alert the last 2 hours of NY session today.
  • #19,583
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:10am Oct 6, 2010 10:10am
Quoting moonchild
I am long and I do expect BOJ to intervene, I just do not know when, so I have a very small position.

However, a really bad NFP, which I would expect after today's terrible US news, would actually drive USD up in most pairs such as EU, GU and AU due to risk avoidance and may drag UJ up as well as a result. Therefore it is possible that BOJ may wait to see if bad NFP news does the work for them.
I thought a good NFP will ease the risk appetite and push the Yen down, UJ up. huh....currency market lost any rationale...sigh
  • #19,584
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:12am Oct 6, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Forexgogo
I wouldn't be surprised if BoJ intervenes at any time now. JP newspaper tells that JP gov is under of the tremendous pressure of business community. Also politicians are criticizing the efficiency of gov's economic management.

One thing is clear to me: if JP gov does not intervene, it will waste all the money they have spent in the past 4 weeks. I don't think JP gov just keeps watching Yen going down.

I will be alert the last 2 hours of NY session today.
May be they got back the money they spent last week, by shorting UJ
  • #19,585
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:22am Oct 6, 2010 10:22am
Quoting Forexgogo
I wouldn't be surprised if BoJ intervenes at any time now. JP newspaper tells that JP gov is under of the tremendous pressure of business community. Also politicians are criticizing the efficiency of gov's economic management.

One thing is clear to me: if JP gov does not intervene, it will waste all the money they have spent in the past 4 weeks. I don't think JP gov just keeps watching uj going down.

I will be alert the last 2 hours of NY session today.
I hear that long time, but fakt is we made new low today and it's going down,
they are so slow, when they decides make intervention we may be at 80
  • #19,586
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:30am Oct 6, 2010 10:30am
Quoting Nud
I hear that long time, but fakt is we made new low today and it's going down,
they are so slow, when they decides make intervention we may be at 80
If it goes down to 80.00, the JP gov will intervene IMO. I know everybody is anticipated WHEN they do it, which no one really knows. I just think the lower it goes, the bigger the intervention will be.

To me, this is quite exciting to watch
  • #19,587
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:33am Oct 6, 2010 10:33am
Quoting Forexgogo
If it goes down to 80.00, the JP gov will intervene IMO. I know everybody is anticipated WHEN they do it, which no one really knows. I just think the lower it goes, the bigger the intervention will be.

To me, this is quite exciting to watch
Exciting to watch? I lost my 5% on this last 2 weeks. my mom used to say, dont trust what you hear(news), but trust what you see(charts). I never listened to her
  • #19,588
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:39am Oct 6, 2010 10:39am
new low has formed, the support has been hit... the time for correction..... it's safe to buy at 83.80....
buy low sell high, wait for retracement, and follow the trend again....
at the moment, it would be nice to make some quick pips
there is little probability traders would sell off at the moment, until we are sure their next action....we are worrying of BOJ ambush...
  • #19,589
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:47am Oct 6, 2010 10:47am
Quoting PipMaxzz
Exciting to watch? I lost my 5% on this last 2 weeks. my mom used to say, dont trust what you hear(news), but trust what you see(charts). I never listened to her
it's expensive but important lesson
BoJ sleep well

GL
  • #19,590
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:50am Oct 6, 2010 10:50am
BOJ is sleeping or they lost the key to get the money for selling yen ...
  • #19,591
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:55am Oct 6, 2010 10:55am
Quoting Hugo Boss
BOJ is sleeping or they lost the key to get the money for selling yen ...
I think they are scared of chinese, coz they will sure point to BOJ if they intervene further. If Japs can keep currency low, why not I?
  • #19,592
  • Oct 6, 2010 11:26am Oct 6, 2010 11:26am
Quoting Forexgogo
If it goes down to 80.00, the JP gov will intervene IMO. I know everybody is anticipated WHEN they do it, which no one really knows. I just think the lower it goes, the bigger the intervention will be.

To me, this is quite exciting to watch

Intervention? How long will last if it happen? BOJ cannot chalange the market. Until market decide to go up there is no intervention that will help.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #19,593
  • Oct 6, 2010 11:28am Oct 6, 2010 11:28am
Quoting mima
Intervention? How long will last if it happen? BOJ cannot chalange the market. Until market decide to go up there is no intervention that will help.
no? why? fed can so boj can too
  • #19,594
  • Oct 6, 2010 11:53am Oct 6, 2010 11:53am
Quoting Nud
no? why? fed can so boj can too
Of course they can but no effect until market decide to go long UJ.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #19,595
  • Edited 12:21pm Oct 6, 2010 12:11pm | Edited 12:21pm
Geithner's comment (10/6) about Chinese currency manipulation may affect JP's decision upon intervention. It is interesting that JP gov has a huge dilemma between domestic business community (pro-intervention) and US-Euro financial community (con).

My guess is, JP would do it after waiting for the market to turn to the favorable direction. If it breaks 80, then, JP has no choice but doing it to survive... (I mean, for politicians to survive next election).

Let's see what's going to happen...
  • #19,596
  • Oct 6, 2010 2:26pm Oct 6, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Geithner's comment (10/6) about Chinese currency manipulation may affect JP's decision upon intervention. It is interesting that JP gov has a huge dilemma between domestic business community (pro-intervention) and US-Euro financial community (con).
I dont think the MOF should be concerned too much about the US reaction:

http://www.forexlive.com/137470/all/...ral-resolution
Quote
Asked if recent currency intervention by Japanese authorities to
keep the yen low falls can be considered competitive non-appreciation,
Geithner said, “I don’t, no.”
  • #19,597
  • Oct 6, 2010 2:35pm Oct 6, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting wontfindanam
I dont think the MOF should be concerned too much about the US reaction:

http://www.forexlive.com/137470/all/...ral-resolution
Yeah, I read that part, too (Geithner saying "no"). But I think it is a diplomatic answer. The US and Euro really don't like JP intervention because it may lead to "currency war" among the non-Western financial world (i.e., JP, CN, Brazil, Mexico, and so on).

Anyway, we will see what JP gov will do or not do pretty soon
  • #19,598
  • Oct 6, 2010 2:52pm Oct 6, 2010 2:52pm
Something is just NOT adding up. BOJ has released an official announcement on interest reduction so technically USD should be awakening from slumber. Yet I see the exact opposite and continuous stream of downfall. Can someone explain this? What's up with USD?

P.S. I'm not complaining USD is declining cause I made decent profits from Gold closed at 1348 from 1300 entry.

Is there a possible retracement usd/jpy or usd against other currencies for that matter? OR should we continue to ditch USD for at least another quarter?
  • #19,599
  • Oct 6, 2010 3:29pm Oct 6, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Yeah, I read that part, too (Geithner saying "no"). But I think it is a diplomatic answer. The US and Euro really don't like JP intervention because it may lead to "currency war" among the non-Western financial world (i.e., JP, CN, Brazil, Mexico, and so on).

Anyway, we will see what JP gov will do or not do pretty soon
“I don’t, no.” or “I don’t ...know.”
  • #19,600
  • Oct 6, 2010 3:41pm Oct 6, 2010 3:41pm
when they plan to intervene?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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