USD/JPY Discussion

Quoting realjumper

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I'm not quite sure what you're getting at, but there is surely a correlation with Gold and Yen. As far as I know, the Yen is backed only by it's large current account as far as investing in the Yen goes. I can see no other reason why anyone would buy the Yen, give the dire state of the Japan economy.

I don't really see gold as a safe commodity, it's only worth what people will pay for it...it has no use industrially or in fact, at all. To me, the hording of gold is a bit silly, it's 200 years out of date! However, people still horde the stuff...

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Quoting Hugo Boss

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uj sellers are testing if BOJ is still awake...

if there were no response, they will drag uj to the new hell...

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Quoting lasty

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Much of Japan’s national debt is held by Japanese investors meaning that in the event of a further economic crisis it is unlikely that the currency will see a dramatic drop because the majority of the money is in domestic hands. This means that they are unlikely to dump the bonds and Yen and move it overseas in an attempt to escape a financial crisis.

As a Japanese investor where else would you put it?

As for the trade account dont be fooled. Japanese companies are in China exploiting their market just like they are in the US.

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Quoting realjumper

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I don't really see gold as a safe commodity, it's only worth what people will pay for it...it has no use industrially or in fact, at all. To me, the hording of gold is a bit silly, it's 200 years out of date! However, people still horde the stuff in the belief that it will proect them in times of depression.....and so it seems this time around too. Quite why people are still buying gold at the current level is astounding.....same goes for the Yen and swissy.

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Eventually though, if Japan cannot get control of it's currency, and exports are lost to their competitors, and worse still, they lose that market share completely, Japan will make Greece look like a rich country, and all the people holding the Yen will get burnt.

Gold is a little different, but not much. Lets suppose there truely is a world wide depression looming.....all those who are buying gold now will aso get burnt, simply because no one will be able to afford to pay +$1300/ounce for the useless metal! They will have more important things...

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India bought 200 tonnes of the stuff last year at (from memory) about $1140/ounce. Good investement you might say. But for what??? What has improved for India since they made that purchase? Certainly the 80% of thei population living below the poverty line don't see much point in it. If India sold it now, they would make a handsome profit......but they won't. They will still be holding their 200 tonnes even when the price drops back to the $1000 mark. So what's the point?

Quoting grashid

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wow..u open a lot of variation (sigma) in ur statement mate...how to get the sharp shape bell curve with low alpha...mm

but who is the world largest gold reserve atm? n world is not end yet. How about manfacturing concern. A lot to describe actually right...ahh forget about it....

anyway i did agreed some of ur point..thanks

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Quoting realjumper

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Indeed it is.....and therein lays part of the problem. Because much of the debt is sold internally, it doesn't attract the attention of Fitch and other rating agencies. If there debt was on the open market....ie, overseas....then their crdit rating would surely have plummeted by now...and with it, the value of the Yen.

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Quoting Catch-22

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LOL, testing how? I see no movement...like at all.

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Quoting lasty

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Yup a bit like the US debt.. those who dare to downgrade will be downgraded themselves.

So here we are BOJ against the market....I have noticed that some are siding with BOJ going long US dollars... traitors
Do not change your colours.. they will never change theirs..

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Quoting Hugo Boss

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They hit n run... touched below 83...

seems there are no reaction of BOJ..
averaging for several days usually will make a huge move suddenly.... Up or down???

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Quoting deathbait

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Couldn't help but notice a few disturbing points in that post of yours:

gold is considered an inflation hedge like any other commodity. It's not out of date at all. In fact, it would be absolutely silly of anyone to continue holding cash when inflation soars. If you don't like gold, you could invest in any number of commodities. It just so happens that gold and silver are the most popular ones and thus the most liquid.

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Quoting deathbait

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Actually, despite what happens in Japan in your doomsday scenario, those holding yen win in the short run, and don't get burnt. It's those who spend yen but are holding alternative investments that will get burnt. Kinda what happens when you hedge against inflation and deflation sets in.

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Quoting deathbait

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Your analysis of the world wide depression is also flawed. Gold is not just used for jewellery. It's necessary or production like any other good. The only reason it's not more widely used is due to it's cost. Besides, when inflation is overwhelming you, the only sensible thing would be to hedge, which is where gold would come in. Without going too much into it, it's the reason why some merchants refuse to accept their own local currency. It's entirely possible that one day you might need to trade entirely in gold, or barter, should the worst case...

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Quoting deathbait

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Here, we have to go into the difference between hedging and speculation. A large portion of traders aren't actually in it for the profit. They are hedgers, and not in the bastardized sense of it that you see popping up all over these forums. The value in their trade is the stability of their investments, not pure profit. Your criticism of their gold policy is reminiscent of complaints in my local community when my utilities company "hedged at the wrong time" during the oil spike a couple of years ago.

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Quoting realjumper

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Of course it's out of date....it's not linked to any currency, and it has no use whatsoever. Sure it's pretty, but that doesn't cut it. As I said, it's only worth what people are prepared to pay for it. It has no intrinsic value of it's own.....it's coloured lead (for want of a better description), and in historical times it *was* a currency. No so long ago, it was the base of paper currency. Now, it's just a metal that out of date thinking dictates that it is truely worth something. It's not!! It's only worth is what people are prepared to pay...

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Quoting lasty

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Yup a bit like the US debt.. those who dare to downgrade will be downgraded themselves.

So here we are BOJ against the market....I have noticed that some are siding with BOJ going long US dollars... traitors
Do not change your colours.. they will never change theirs..

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Quoting realjumper

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BOJ cant 'win' this on it's own.

You know how you see a fly continually flying at full speed into a window (because it want's to get outside), that's closed. He try's and try's and try's again. Eventually he get's so stunned that he walks around on the windowsill until he dies. If he had tryed a different approach, and tested (say) the door, he would have found that the door was open, and this was his route to freedom.

BOJ is that fly.

Selling yen, lowering interest rates to zero etc etc don't work. It's now time to try another method, instead...

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Quoting iamboston

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they gotta have something to make the Aussie gold medals for the comm games out of!

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Quoting lasty

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Why dont they just sell dollars like the rest of us and enjoy the party..

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