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  • #301,081
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:44pm Oct 5, 2010 12:44pm
BIg chance i will be testing 1.3850 again and then break down.
But time will showe. No good reason to go long with price under 1.3850.
  • #301,082
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:50pm Oct 5, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting vinesh2
Watch for the employment numbers if it comes out good watch for complete 360 reversal.
when they will come out?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #301,083
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:52pm Oct 5, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting majorusa
Already red it. Interesting theory. Though I fail to see it happen in real day to day trading.
you can check his webinar on http://www.fxstreet.com/live/archives/
when you are free
  • #301,084
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:56pm Oct 5, 2010 12:56pm
this is the second time the daily high is taken out in the afterhours... the daily candle looks extremely frightening. are the us still on any maps out there? wondering...
  • #301,085
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:57pm Oct 5, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Sunsi
BIg chance i will be testing 1.3850 again and then break down.
But time will showe. No good reason to go long with price under 1.3850.
You mean no good reason to go short, right?
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #301,086
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:59pm Oct 5, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting Geppy
You mean no good reason to go short, right?
Hehe. Seems like thats correct also
  • #301,087
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:01pm Oct 5, 2010 1:01pm
Do you think this wil hold? If you do. Why?

Pair is oversold.
Macd showing signaling a downmove.
  • #301,088
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:08pm Oct 5, 2010 1:08pm
EU Momentum is very strong it should move up but it needs some retrace before moving to 1.395X + area.......... at least a retrace to 1.3810 area but seems will drive to the upper channel area....
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  • #301,089
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:08pm Oct 5, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting Sunsi
Do you think this wil hold? If you do. Why?

Pair is oversold.
Macd showing signaling a downmove.
Depends what you feel "holding" is. I trade mostly GBP/USD and GBP/JPY so a common "retracement" to me is 50-100 pips. I see people talking about retraces of 20 pips in here. To me that is holding.

Do I think we'll continue higher? Yes. I have a boatload of longs I picked up the other night at 1.3680 and I'm not planning on releasing any until at least slightly below 1.3900 (maybe higher... have to check the charts more when I get home). The only thing that would make me close is the vast amount of dough I'd have sitting as unrealized gains. I'd look to start immediately adding again on dips as I think we'll see 1.43-1.45 before there is any real decision to be made on direction.

There's a lot going on fundamentally and n00bies will get slaughtered. Everyone is trying to devalue their currency but a veteran knows that nobody wins that race like the good ol' USofA. Nobody wants to hold USD right now and that was especially evident if you were around the other week for the BoJ intervention. Buying USD/JPY means buying USD, right? Which means the USD should strengthen, correct? Well, theoretically yes. But what we saw were higher prices in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, etc. Why? Japan didn't want to be holding USD so they were diversifying into other pairs, converting their newly purchased USD into EUR, GBP, AUD, etc.

The bottom line is, nobody wants USD right now. USD strength should be seen as an opportunity to short it or get rid of what you're holding. Unless something changes fundamentally in a dramatic way, I won't be longing USD.

Best of luck!


EDIT: And one more thing.... you say price is oversold and MACD is signaling down. Well, fundamentals are driving this market at about 90%. There's bearish divergence all over the different time-frames but when fundamentals are this strong, it could take a long LONG time to play out and many accounts will get blown up trying to play it too early.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #301,090
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:09pm Oct 5, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
this is the second time the daily high is taken out in the afterhours... the daily candle looks extremely frightening. are the us still on any maps out there? wondering...
Yes I wonder if Asia session later will play out the same way Monday did after that long slow NY only creep to a new daily high...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #301,091
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:10pm Oct 5, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
this is the second time the daily high is taken out in the afterhours... the daily candle looks extremely frightening. are the us still on any maps out there? wondering...
not exactly after hours mein Freund - its only 2PM in New York - markets, banks all still open. We often see an increase in volume around 3:00 - 3:30PM NY time... DJIA up 187...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #301,092
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:11pm Oct 5, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting Geppy
Depends what you feel "holding" is. I trade mostly GBP/USD and GBP/JPY so a common "retracement" to me is 50-100 pips. I see people talking about retraces of 20 pips in here. To me that is holding.

Do I think we'll continue higher? Yes. I have a boatload of longs I picked up the other night at 1.3680 and I'm not planning on releasing any until at least slightly below 1.3900 (maybe higher... have to check the charts more when I get home). The only thing that would make me close is the vast amount of dough I'd have sitting as unrealized gains....
I see your point!
Nice post! Thank you!
USDX also seem to be forming a bottom
Do you overlook that the pair is overbought and MACD pointing south?
Don`t you think we will get a retracement before going more up?
  • #301,093
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting Sunsi
I see your point!
Nice post! Thank you!
Do you overlook that the pair is overbought and MACD pointing south?
You beat me to it... see the "edit" in my previous post.

In short, yes.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #301,094
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting The Fool
not exactly after hours mein Freund - its only 2PM in New York - markets, banks all still open. We often see an increase in volume around 3:00 - 3:30PM NY time... DJIA up 187...
thanks... after london close I meant. so, "after hours" would be after ny closed, understood.


Quoting Geppy
Depends what you feel "holding" is....
thanks for this insight, that was important for me. i had a different perception of this diversification, thanks again.
  • #301,095
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm
At last.3/8-5/8-5/8-6/8 swing completed.
  • #301,096
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm Oct 5, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting The Fool
not exactly after hours mein Freund - its only 2PM in New York - markets, banks all still open. We often see an increase in volume around 3:00 - 3:30PM NY time... DJIA up 187...

fade into close?
  • #301,097
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:17pm Oct 5, 2010 1:17pm
Good afternoon everyone. who believe what comes tomorrow with the ADP? believe that the market already priced a good result or have a tipped with bad data?
Let us be green
  • #301,098
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:21pm Oct 5, 2010 1:21pm
My devil may care trade for the day...I've decided to short the Euro. I know..unbelievable. It's up against the top of a VERY strong resistance point right now. The US markets typically give back some of their gains. The US came out with some decent PMI info today.

I think we could see a 20-40 pip retracement prior to 5. Anyone else jumping on the short bus with me?
  • #301,099
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:22pm Oct 5, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting Munal
EU Momentum is very strong it should move up but it needs some retrace before moving to 1.395X + area.......... at least a retrace to 1.3810 area but seems will drive to the upper channel area....

but 4hs momentum gets weaker and weaker!
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  • #301,100
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:22pm Oct 5, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting Geppy
You beat me to it... see the "edit" in my previous post.

In short, yes.
I read your post and understand what you mean!
I have maninly been trading technicals, and having good succses so far.
But I will realy try yo be better at understanding fundamentals.
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