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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,461
  • Oct 5, 2010 9:59am Oct 5, 2010 9:59am
Might be early to call, but, looks like the BoJ and their measures have failed, yet again. 10 pips to go to the Sept 15 intervention low.

Given everything they threw at the problem yesterday only resulted in a selling spree, there may be a greater chance of intervention #2 soon. But then again, this is the inconsistent & frankly feeble BoJ.
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  • #19,462
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:02am Oct 5, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Beljevina
Might be early to call, but, looks like the BoJ and their measures have failed, yet again. 10 pips to go to the Sept 15 intervention low.

Given everything they threw at the problem yesterday only resulted in a selling spree, there may be a greater chance of intervention #2 soon. But then again, this is the inconsistent & frankly feeble BoJ.

That is exactly what I reckon! (I mean "intervention #2 soon" part)
  • #19,463
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:05am Oct 5, 2010 10:05am
it broke 83,00.... gonna reach 82,4???
  • #19,464
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:07am Oct 5, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Hugo Boss
it broke 83,00.... gonna reach 82,4???
It hasn't closed under yet...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,465
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:13am Oct 5, 2010 10:13am
It's not that easy to reach 82.4 especialy when people assume that th intervention will have more chance since the usd/jpy drop to the same like previous intervention took his part. Trader will carefully enter the market now,short or long any trader will think double now before enter the market.
  • #19,466
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:25am Oct 5, 2010 10:25am
Actually, just the idea of trhe intervention, or should I say the fear of the intervention, is likely to prevent most people from considering a short.

The last thing anybody wants to do is be on the wrong side of an intervention and see the trade go against you by 100 pips or more in less than 5 minutes.

So just the rumour of an intervention is likely to increase long trades and decrease short ones.
  • #19,467
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:27am Oct 5, 2010 10:27am
Quoting moonchild
Actually, just the idea of trhe intervention, or should I say the fear of the intervention, is likely to prevent most people from considering a short.

The last thing anybody wants to do is be on the wrong side of an intervention and see the trade go against you by 100 pips or more in less than 5 minutes.

So just the rumour of an intervention is likely to increase long trades and decrease short ones.
Sounds good to me, I'm all for going long, lol
  • #19,468
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:33am Oct 5, 2010 10:33am
Massive carry trade will occur due to difference in interest rates...

No need to short, it will go down anyway....
  • #19,469
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:35am Oct 5, 2010 10:35am
I hope I am wrong, but BoJ didn't intervene currency consistently.
if they want to succeed, they must change the uj trend.
if there were no intervene, the price will fall to 82,4.
  • #19,470
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:42am Oct 5, 2010 10:42am
In the past, particularly when UK had a high interest rate, there was a very large carry trade. This resulted in large numbers of people having long positions to take advantage of the difference in interest rates and a by-product of this was that it contributed to weakening the yen.

Now, interest rates are lower, and only 2 countries would have interest rates such as to warrant carry trades and those are Australia and New Zealand. At present, the only viable carry trade really is AUD/JPY.
  • #19,471
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:49am Oct 5, 2010 10:49am
ok, first try and no BoJ reaction so waiting for next...
next level 82.87 and 82.50
  • #19,472
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:01am Oct 5, 2010 11:01am
Bottom will be formed only after capitulation...

Don't predict bottoms, just ride the trend, which is on the downside......
  • #19,473
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:07am Oct 5, 2010 11:07am
Quoting moonchild
Now, interest rates are lower, and only 2 countries would have interest rates such as to warrant carry trades and those are Australia and New Zealand. At present, the only viable carry trade really is AUD/JPY.
How then will AUD/JPY move? Up or down in relation with the carry trade?
Thanks.
  • #19,474
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:07am Oct 5, 2010 11:07am
Fierce rejection 82.95 I'm trying a long @ 83.18

SL now at BE
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,475
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:17am Oct 5, 2010 11:17am
Quoting ertorque
How then will AUD/JPY move? Up or down in relation with the carry trade?
Thanks.
Carry trades are unidirectional. The swap is only favourable for long trades. The fact that many people use a pair for carry trade profits actually raises the pair by increasing the proportion of long trades.
  • #19,476
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:40am Oct 5, 2010 11:40am
There is no way BOJ can let it continue like this. Near zero interest rate also did not help much. I am sure Asian session will be quite colorful with green pips for UJ longs
With Euro issues like the new ones from Ireland popping up, USD will have a medium bull run tomorrow. I am long on UJ @83.15
  • #19,477
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:38pm Oct 5, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Fierce rejection 82.95 I'm trying a long @ 83.18

SL now at BE
pffff, took a while but out.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,478
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:21pm Oct 5, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting USD-Bear
pffff, took a while but out.
The US$ is really in the crapper today - everyone's buying everything else, against it. It's rare that USDCAD closes at it's low. Am still holding a UJ and UC long for a hopeful 25+ pips. Hard to develop trades for more lately I find.
  • #19,479
  • Edited 3:19pm Oct 5, 2010 2:51pm | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting Beljevina
The US$ is really in the crapper today - everyone's buying everything else, against it. It's rare that USDCAD closes at it's low. Am still holding a UJ and UC long for a hopeful 25+ pips. Hard to develop trades for more lately I find.
What is very strange last 15 mins is that USDX recovers so you would expect UJ up but UJ does nothing, any explanation?
ps if you look at current correlation it suggests another move down for UJ, waiting for now....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,480
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:35pm Oct 5, 2010 3:35pm
strong support is expected between 82.80-83.00
BOJ intervention is imminent
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