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  • #300,781
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:39am Oct 5, 2010 3:39am
Quoting infinitus
OK, call me crazy. Short here.....
+1
  • #300,782
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:39am Oct 5, 2010 3:39am
Quoting Nud
any reason for this usdx big drop?
EUR bulls can not afford to lose 1.3794. So this might a desperate move to get back into range
  • #300,783
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:40am Oct 5, 2010 3:40am
  •  Pipalot
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Going with the flow of the markets | 79 Posts
I don't post very often on here, but i have a feeling this is going to go higher than you guys think.

1.4 is certainly not out of the question in the long term. The bulls are still in control and will be for some time. I am holding a long position from the 13th September and still have absolutely no reason to exit it. The 4 hour trend line has now been tested 4 times, therefore it is now a very strong resistance level.

Dollar is still weak and there is no reason YET for investors to purchase or keep hold of dollars for now.........

Good luck and this is just my view...........
  • #300,784
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:41am Oct 5, 2010 3:41am
Quoting zaphy
I'm still holding the long from 1.3708, hoping for 1.39 (without any sound reason), but will be pretty happy at 1.384.
i've reduced my longs since the up move was pretty fast. i still think we can go further but a double top is a double top.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,785
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:42am Oct 5, 2010 3:42am
Quoting T@rantula
TBH this WAS supposed to happen yesterday. I really dont like Mondays. Many fake outs.

This was yesterday's scenario, thats why I advised keeping longs and buying dips.
i did the same thing but didn't expect 1.38 until friday NFP.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,786
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:43am Oct 5, 2010 3:43am
If this is the top of wave 2 (of 5 down), then we have easy sailing from now on because of nearly 100% retracement of wave 1. Wave 4 should then be very shallow (rule of alternation)
  • #300,787
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:44am Oct 5, 2010 3:44am
Quoting Pipalot
I am holding a long position from the 13th September and still have absolutely no reason to exit it. ...........
Very nice.

IFR says sizable barrier options @ 1.3825 but expiries couple weeks out so not sure if that might be defended now or not.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #300,788
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:44am Oct 5, 2010 3:44am
Quoting infinitus
OK, call me crazy. Short here.....
Crazy

Well, it should go up some more, i see just around 5-10 pips short scalps possible...too risky.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #300,789
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:46am Oct 5, 2010 3:46am
Quoting T@rantula
TBH this WAS supposed to happen yesterday. I really dont like Mondays. Many fake outs.

This was yesterday's scenario, thats why I advised keeping longs and buying dips.
"Turnaround Tuesday"
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #300,790
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:46am Oct 5, 2010 3:46am
Quoting DMA Trader
i've reduced my longs since the up move was pretty fast. i still think we can go further but a double top is a double top.
For me, the last bullet (or ball ) for the bulls is the retail sales in 15 mins. Should that turn out to be good, we are going to see some upside. And don't we just love upside volatility???
  • #300,791
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:48am Oct 5, 2010 3:48am
Quoting Pipalot
I don't post very often on here, but i have a feeling this is going to go higher than you guys think.

1.4 is certainly not out of the question in the long term. The bulls are still in control and will be for some time. I am holding a long position from the 13th September and still have absolutely no reason to exit it. The 4 hour trend line has now been tested 4 times, therefore it is now a very strong resistance level.

Dollar is still weak and there is no reason YET for investors to purchase or keep hold of dollars for now.........

Good...
you are right. i pretty much have the same idea.
but you do know that after such a huge move a correction can come and wipe away profits. and also a lot of people look for setups than have a good R/R

now let's say you want to go long now.
you have to wait for a pullback
and that's something we didn't have

2. you jump in look at 4h chart and the pair can easy dive to 1.35 area and still be a bull trend. yet you are down 300 pips.


but i agree with you. it's just hard for people to get in while the train is going like crazy
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,792
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:49am Oct 5, 2010 3:49am
forgot about gold last 2 days , thought it down 1300 again but not it is healthy though not much gain towards my # , ok slow & steady with all ups & down eu , no problem .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #300,793
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:49am Oct 5, 2010 3:49am
Quoting T@rantula
TBH this WAS supposed to happen yesterday. I really dont like Mondays. Many fake outs.

This was yesterday's scenario, thats why I advised keeping longs and buying dips.
Thank goodness I followed your advice! Yesterday's PA got me nervous. Thanks for your advice! Looking forward to your next great analysis.
  • #300,794
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:53am Oct 5, 2010 3:53am
Quoting DMA Trader
i did the same thing but didn't expect 1.38 until friday NFP.
Quoting T@rantula
3794 could be a nice top before 3820
3794 holds it
  • #300,795
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:54am Oct 5, 2010 3:54am
Quoting The Fool
Very nice.

IFR says sizable barrier options @ 1.3825 but expiries couple weeks out so not sure if that might be defended now or not.
Where to see about options expiration?
  • #300,796
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:58am Oct 5, 2010 3:58am
Quoting T@rantula
3794 holds it
yup.
also look at USX 78.03.
but if we break this and close below.

EUR/USD might see 1.4 and USX below 77.

don't see any further than that.

a lot of expectation is building with the Q.E. issue for November.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,797
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:59am Oct 5, 2010 3:59am
  •  Pipalot
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Going with the flow of the markets | 79 Posts
Quoting DMA Trader
you are right. i pretty much have the same idea.
but you do know that after such a huge move a correction can come and wipe away profits. and also a lot of people look for setups than have a good R/R

now let's say you want to go long now.
you have to wait for a pullback
and that's something we didn't have

2. you jump in look at 4h chart and the pair can easy dive to 1.35 area and still be a bull trend. yet you are down 300 pips.


but i agree with you. it's just hard for people to get in while the train is going like crazy
I agree, it is very difficult to enter at this point, for a long term trade anyway. But for the scalpers out there, with correct analysis it could be good.

My 4 hour trend line is drawn and if the price decides to drop below it, i will take my profit and wait for another move to the upside and re-enter long................ Or if she decides to begin her decent i will enter a short position, depending on economic news and PA of course.
  • #300,798
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:00am Oct 5, 2010 4:00am
after finish 50 pips in 1 hour and just wait to 3734 for new long entry ..
  • #300,799
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:02am Oct 5, 2010 4:02am
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-10-05_European Forex Technicals (08h43 CET) EUR Uptrend Over Against GBP, CHF.pdf (13.2 KB)



European Forex Technicals: EUR Uptrend Over Against GBP, CHF



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http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-10-05_Forex Focus (09h33 CET) Policy Divide Makes Currencies Less Predictable.pdf (11.8 KB)

;-)
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2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #300,800
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:04am Oct 5, 2010 4:04am
There's lessons in defeat. Seems I mis calculated again last night. Woke up to a bruised balance. So now I have a higher entry for shorting down to that 23 fib retrace mark 3519 ish. If that doesn't play out I suspect the best trade was 3650 and shoot to 300/400 pip new highs. Missed that play though.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
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