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  • #300,541
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:17pm Oct 4, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting bbakker
Don't think anything. The market can go either way at any given time... we have no control over it. All we can do is make educated guesses with our methods through discipline and money management.
Thats all about trading... What I meant is that my analysis shows that there is potential for down trend to start at this point...So I am looking for confirmation of my analysis and a trigger to go short... I am not saying I am short now...
  • #300,542
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:20pm Oct 4, 2010 5:20pm
im still short position from top, if my first trget is reach..im look forward for second trget if close price is below cloud cover pattern.....mean sell will still continue forcing down
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be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #300,543
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:27pm Oct 4, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting svet_an
Thats all about trading... What I meant is that my analysis shows that there is potential for down trend to start at this point...So I am looking for confirmation of my analysis and a trigger to go short... I am not saying I am short now...
Fair enough Svet. I came to the same conclusion but got my short in a lot earlier through my own methods as discussed in my posts and now I am in the privileged position of having a free trade -

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post4070572

If it goes down, it is all good and I got my analysis correct. If it goes up, never mind, on to the next one, but I've lost nothing.

If you feel that this is going down, it has to break 1.3666 first and sell on any pull backs to 1.3721, unless you prefer the breakout strategy, then sell 1.3660 but be careful of any fake outs. To be honest... I am flat at this moment, but we have lots of major news items this week that could really shift this in either direction!

I wish you success with your trading!
  • #300,544
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:28pm Oct 4, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting radit27
im still short position from top, if my first trget is reach..im look forward for second trget if close price is below cloud cover pattern.....mean sell will still continue forcing down
Fair play, but including Sunday's data in analysis can skew the chart pattern.

GL with the trade, you may well reach your objective if Asia probes lower.

I rode it down this morning, the last qtr of my position was stopped out at 720, I'd placed my stop just above Friday afternoon's spike lows, a bit obvious in hind-sight, still nice to start the week with a 100 pip winner...
  • #300,545
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:28pm Oct 4, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting radit27
im still short position from top, if my first trget is reach..im look forward for second trget if close price is below cloud cover pattern.....mean sell will still continue forcing down
Not as top as my 1.3801

Call me a top/bottom picker... There is method to my madness
  • #300,546
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:31pm Oct 4, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting bbakker
Fair enough Svet. I came to the same conclusion but got my short in a lot earlier through my own methods as discussed in my posts and now I am in the privileged position of having a free trade -

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post4070572

If it goes down, it is all good and I got my analysis correct. If it goes up, never mind, on to the next one, but I've lost nothing.

If you feel that this is going down, it has to break 1.3666 first and sell on any pull backs to 1.3721, unless you prefer the breakout strategy,...
Thank you... Wish you good luck too...
  • #300,547
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:47pm Oct 4, 2010 5:47pm
Do you think the eurusd will continue its downtrend or correction.
Daily: slight retracement
Hour: Hit secondary trend line read for a double top or an uptrend
  • #300,548
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:00pm Oct 4, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Trend Channel on the dailys..

Did you happent to catch the b-e-a-utiful golden cross on the 1D that just happened with the 50/200 SMA, and the 100/200 soon to follow.

Another sign this train aint stoppin until 1.4!
  • #300,549
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:00pm Oct 4, 2010 6:00pm
Sell down to 2551 buy back up to here.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #300,550
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:06pm Oct 4, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting bbakker
Not as top as my 1.3801

Call me a top/bottom picker... There is method to my madness
Get's you in closer to your sl & initial tp, why not if it's a good level...
  • #300,551
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:09pm Oct 4, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting jdlev
Did you happent to catch the b-e-a-utiful golden cross on the 1D that just happened with the 50/200 SMA, and the 100/200 soon to follow.

Another sign this train aint stoppin until 1.4!
MAs like any other indicators are lagging. They are based on previous price history. Therefore, this thing can trace back to 1.33 (That is a 500 pip move down) and move back up again and the cross will still be valid! A classic example of this occurred in September 2008!
  • #300,552
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:09pm Oct 4, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting svet_an
There are many assumptions but few of them are:
1. The pair is very overbought on DAILY chart
2. Daily chart - 5th wave seems to be completed
3. Possible confirmation for point 3 is the fib cluster that formed right at 1.38
4. A move down has started - should be watched carefully in order to see if it is the start of the trend (which I believe) or is another correction.
5. Anyway, the pair is limited on the upside move (extremely overbought) and even if it goes up it is not going much further.
I used to make the same mistake you're making right now (well...that I think you're making...time will tell). I preached technicals till I was blue in the face. I saw macd's/rsi's/fibs/waves/etc blow up in my face time and again. It's because I was only looking at half the picture. Now, I'm primarily a fundamentals trader who uses technicals to pick my entry/exit points.

You can talk about waves till you're blue in the face...it doesn't change the fact that there are basic economic fundamental premises that are actively at work that continue to devalue the dollar. The worst thing that can happen right now in the US is deflation...you'll have an economic collapse because everyone will be walking away from their mortgages. The FED isn't going to allow that to happen. They'll buy 10T worth of treasury bonds before they let deflation hit the market.
  • #300,553
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:12pm Oct 4, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Get's you in closer to your sl & initial tp, why not if it's a good level...
Too bloody right... best risk/reward ratios! Expect to be wrong more often than not, but then you need to choose your levels carefully! The rewards, if you get it right, can be very rewarding!
  • #300,554
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:13pm Oct 4, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting jdlev
Did you happent to catch the b-e-a-utiful golden cross on the 1D that just happened with the 50/200 SMA, and the 100/200 soon to follow.

Another sign this train aint stoppin until 1.4!
Sorry to be so pedantic, I've got a 50, 100 simple cross, but not 50, 200 which is the one I thought was a technical golden cross.

Very bullish looking chart which ever way you cut it, I would still expect to see a little more sideways action or a slightly more protracted correction tho'...

Sorry had a couple of those set to exponential, yes you're right the golden cross doesn't look too far off.
  • #300,555
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:15pm Oct 4, 2010 6:15pm
if this is going down.
what do you you think of this target.
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  • #300,556
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:17pm Oct 4, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting jdlev
I used to make the same mistake you're making right now (well...that I think you're making...time will tell)....
Ah yes... the Japanese tried that and failed miserably. The problem is that central banks think they can manipulate the free market, whereas they should just let the markets do their own thing. Of course it will be painful by doing nothing, but all they are doing is prolonging the pain and in some cases making it even worse later on.
  • #300,557
  • Edited 6:28pm Oct 4, 2010 6:18pm | Edited 6:28pm
Quoting bbakker
Too bloody right... best risk/reward ratios! Expect to be wrong more often than not, but then you need to choose your levels carefully! The rewards, if you get it right, can be very rewarding!
I think the key is, to understand where those levels are, from an order flow and smart money perspective.

Close stop, always take off half or stop to b/e on the initial bounce to cover risk...
If you always wait for confirmation then you're usually on the wrong side of the dealing spread and further from your stop, it's a lot less stressful being in profit while the market makes it's mind up.

It's not comfortable buying a red candle or selling a green, but from a risk perspective it's the safest way to trade.
  • #300,558
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:19pm Oct 4, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting jdlev
You can talk about waves till you're blue in the face...it doesn't change the fact that there are basic economic fundamental premises that are actively at work that continue to devalue the dollar. The worst thing that can happen right now in the US is deflation...you'll have an economic collapse because everyone will be walking away from their mortgages. The FED isn't going to allow that to happen. They'll buy 10T worth of treasury bonds before they let deflation hit the market.
Ah yes... the Japanese tried that and failed miserably. The problem is that central banks think they can manipulate the free market, whereas they should just let the markets do their own thing. Of course it will be painful by doing nothing, but all they are doing is prolonging the pain and in some cases making it even worse later on.
  • #300,559
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:27pm Oct 4, 2010 6:27pm
.3666 hits my 3-hr lower TL right around the Tokyo open (..or now..)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #300,560
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:29pm Oct 4, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I think the key is, to understand where those levels are, from an order flow and smart money perspective.


Check out these two great threads on order flow -

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=193795
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=229290
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