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EURUSD

  • #300,381
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:19pm Oct 4, 2010 1:19pm
Is there any or idea anticipation for Bernaki program after 40 minutes, up or down or both?
  • #300,382
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:20pm Oct 4, 2010 1:20pm
In my view it's a fundamental battle between.

US Spending like Crazy - Growing huge debt, maybe Q.E.

and

Europe trying something different.

Fiscal Responsibility and Austerity measures.

Very different Paths in my view with different outcomes in the future.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,383
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:22pm Oct 4, 2010 1:22pm
Also I am 90% sure that ECB will raise rates before FED.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,384
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:25pm Oct 4, 2010 1:25pm
The downside effect on ECB policy would be

Austerity cut's growth and we wind up being in Stagflation.
But does Q.E. bring jobs ? well Q.E. 1 didn't so maybe Q.E. 2 will have same effect.

Let's nit forget Election in 1 month in USA. That be very important. since markets are pricing in a change in favor of republicans.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,385
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:26pm Oct 4, 2010 1:26pm
The threat of the FED pumping more money into the system, appears to be scaring the $ into a reatreat.

That plus short term over confidence in the EURO, which will almost certainly spin around in a fortnight or so, has helped EUR/USD achieve the current hefty heights.
Dan TheMan
  • #300,386
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:28pm Oct 4, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting mfoste1
seriously bad news has been coming out for the euro.....

1. riots
2. EZ worker paycuts
3. bond spreads soaring
4. AIB failing
5. german hypo failing
6. ecb buying euro bonds
7. spain portugal will inevitably be downgraded

.
Actually, I see these 2 in bold as positive... this mean that at leat EZ is looking a bit for austerity compare to the US...

I agree that EZ is not in great shape neither but still way better than the States in my opinion.

And about point number 7, markets are already aware that these countries deserve lower rating, so I don't see nothing really hearthful there.

Just my 2 cents
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #300,387
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:30pm Oct 4, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting DMA Trader
i don't think you are right here.

if that was the case. on USD would loose ground not EUR gaining.

But if you look at EUX (EUR index) it had a huge rally.
Also look at EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD coming big time from the lows. EUR/CAD almost hiting 0.5 FIB from all downtrend. Also look at EUR/GBP

It's not only the dollar Q.E. Maybe it's Also weekly EUX looks ok. certainly not bearish.
whats not right? Europe has severe problems......

usd is being battered by QE rumors. the rise in eurgbp was strictly due to BOE hints at QE and a decline in gbp. Since eur/usd is the most liquid pair traded, it weights on much less liquid pairs such as eurcad eurnzd euraud etc...please give me a positive fundamental coming out of eurozone? The fed can provide much more liquidity for the US than the ECB can for the EZ. This will hurt the usd however, but it still doesnt change the fact that Eurozone is in a crisis. They could very well experience a "liquidity trap" in the near future. They will lower rates before they raise them.
  • #300,388
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:31pm Oct 4, 2010 1:31pm
All greetings! I have bought pair with flowing for the purpose of 1.39 and above, stop 1.3595!
  • #300,389
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:31pm Oct 4, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting Bootleger
Actually, I see these 2 in bold as positive... this mean that at leat EZ is looking a bit for austerity compare to the US...

I agree that EZ is not in great shape neither but still way better than the States in my opinion.

And about point number 7, markets are already aware that these countries deserve lower rating, so I don't see nothing really hearthful there.

Just my 2 cents

riots and worker pay cuts are good? that's a sign that shit aint working......

the fed can provide stimulus for the economy whereas ECB cannot.....germany will not foot the bill. You don't see anything wrong with a countries' debt being downgraded? this means they are experiencing fiscal issues, they are spending more than they take in and therefore run a higher risk of not being able to make good on their current and future debts. I can assure you that is very serious.
  • #300,390
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:35pm Oct 4, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting mfoste1
whats not right? Europe has severe problems......

usd is being battered by QE rumors. the rise in eurgbp was strictly due to BOE hints at QE and a decline in gbp. Since eur/usd is the most liquid pair traded, it weights on much less liquid pairs such as eurcad eurnzd euraud etc...please give me a positive fundamental coming out of eurozone? The fed can provide much more liquidity for the US than the ECB can for the EZ. This will hurt the usd however, but it still doesnt change the fact that Eurozone is in a crisis. They could very well experience...
i think "The Europe Crisis" is way overstated. Let's go into details. Only take California which is way bigger than Greece, Portugal and some other small Europe country's. Big Europe is doing better.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,391
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:35pm Oct 4, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting mfoste1
whats not right? Europe has severe problems......

usd is being battered by QE rumors. the rise in eurgbp was strictly due to BOE hints at QE and a decline in gbp. Since eur/usd is the most liquid pair traded, it weights on much less liquid pairs such as eurcad eurnzd euraud etc...please give me a positive fundamental coming out of eurozone? The fed can provide much more liquidity for the US than the ECB can for the EZ. This will hurt the usd however, but it still doesnt change the fact that Eurozone is in a crisis. They could very well experience...
I totally agree with Mfoste1, the euro's current heights will be short lived. Some of it is being encouraged by speculators, you only have to look at the 30 pip jump on Sunday nights (GMT) opening to see that.
Dan TheMan
  • #300,392
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:36pm Oct 4, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting DMA Trader
The downside effect on ECB policy would be

Austerity cut's growth and we wind up being in Stagflation.
But does Q.E. bring jobs ? well Q.E. 1 didn't so maybe Q.E. 2 will have same effect.

Let's nit forget Election in 1 month in USA. That be very important. since markets are pricing in a change in favor of republicans.
Just for sure...
This maen sell?
  • #300,393
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:36pm Oct 4, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting mfoste1
whats not right? Europe has severe problems......

usd is being battered by QE rumors. the rise in eurgbp was strictly due to BOE hints at QE and a decline in gbp. Since eur/usd is the most liquid pair traded, it weights on much less liquid pairs such as eurcad eurnzd euraud etc...please give me a positive fundamental coming out of eurozone? The fed can provide much more liquidity for the US than the ECB can for the EZ. This will hurt the usd however, but it still doesnt change the fact that Eurozone is in a crisis. They could very well experience...
EUR/USD Has spent all day in this little range near the lows, my guess is we fall under the support to 1.3580 and maybe even 1.35 tomorrow. Until NY open, which with POMO could push DOW up and Euro with it (risk appetite)
  • #300,394
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:38pm Oct 4, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting DMA Trader
i don't think you are right here.

if that was the case. on USD would loose ground not EUR gaining.

But if you look at EUX (EUR index) it had a huge rally.
Also look at EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD coming big time from the lows. EUR/CAD almost hiting 0.5 FIB from all downtrend. Also look at EUR/GBP

It's not only the dollar Q.E. Maybe it's Also weekly EUX looks ok. certainly not bearish.
I tend to disagree with this analysis.

The EUX, as i understand it, is heavily correlated to the eur/usd; i believe the usd cross makes up over half the index. So, in thinking about trying to see the eur in isolation, looking at an index heavily weighted towards the usd doesn't help.

Also, because the usd is reserve currency, eur/cad can bee seen as eur/usd bullish usd/cad bearish, ect with the rest, which really means that you are still not isolating the euro.

Market sentiment seemed to subtly shift over the weekend. Reading the Journal today, US businesses are looking better because the changes made to better integrate into the new economy are beginning to pay off, Greek municipalities are going bankrupt because of housing market crash.....just a few things for people to be thinking about as the market finds its way into a (large or small) correction.
  • #300,395
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:40pm Oct 4, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting msj_rs
Just for sure...
This maen sell?
well media seems to be now taking Obama to the ground and the democrats.
so they are just building expectation.

don't know if republicans could be better.

but spending really seems to go out of control.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,396
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:41pm Oct 4, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting DMA Trader
i think "The Europe Crisis" is way overstated. Let's go into details. Only take California which is way bigger than Greece, Portugal and some other small Europe country's. Big Europe is doing better.

why do you think the EZ crisis is overstated? and dont use california as an example because thats not what were talking about. This isnt "bash the other political candidate running against you". Tell me some solid evidence that "big europe" is doing better......
  • #300,397
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:43pm Oct 4, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting ocmsrzr
I tend to disagree with this analysis.

The EUX, as i understand it, is heavily correlated to the eur/usd; i believe the usd cross makes up over half the index. So, in thinking about trying to see the eur in isolation, looking at an index heavily weighted towards the usd doesn't help.

Also, because the usd is reserve currency, eur/cad can bee seen as eur/usd bullish usd/cad bearish, ect with the rest, which really means that you are still not isolating the euro.

Market sentiment seemed to subtly shift over the weekend. Reading the Journal...
You may be right but what I was trying to say is that it's not only the USD going down. What about EUR/CHF then ? from 1.28 ?

Maybe it has been a huge greedy short covering. It's to close to call yet.
But I really doubt all EUR rally is because US Q.E. 2

I agree with the rest of argument though.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #300,398
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:44pm Oct 4, 2010 1:44pm
e/u supported above .3680, $ can't get anything better than 25 pips or so ahead since NYO, despite >100 pt slide in the DJIA, not much of a bear case. Put together a string of risk-off days and some more riots downgrades bogus numbers etc out of the EZ and maybe a real move south can get going. Doubtful.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #300,399
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:45pm Oct 4, 2010 1:45pm
Hi, can any body plz tell me the meaning of QE?

I am reading it in almost every single post here.
  • #300,400
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:45pm Oct 4, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting forextine
EUR/USD Has spent all day in this little range near the lows, my guess is we fall under the support to 1.3580 and maybe even 1.35 tomorrow. Until NY open, which with POMO could push DOW up and Euro with it (risk appetite)

I am not so sure that such a short on EUR/USD will pay dividend. My money is on Cable and GBP/CAD rising 20/30 pips from 1.5810 and 1.62 respectively.

EUR/USD will certainly bounce around, but I don't believe the above mentioned downward pressure will appear.
Let's hope I am wrong if you are backing it Forextine.

Dan TheMan
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