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  • #9,801
  • Sep 30, 2010 2:25am Sep 30, 2010 2:25am
What caught my eye in the presentation, was also taking a counter trend trade. In the first line when he was describing the dibs rules Joel said " take the breakout of inside bar, with stop and reverse on the other side".

This type of trading was discouraged by Peter Crowns some two years ago when he was asked by someone in Bemac`s thread, and would definitely end up with a lot of whipsaw and putting hit ratio of this method even lower, but it can also provide you with some very very extraordinary early entries which can payoff on the long run.

Its all very much matter of preference.
You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #9,802
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:48am Sep 30, 2010 6:48am
Quoting gez40
try winzip, download free from winzip.com
Thanks gez40, worked perfectly.
  • #9,803
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:42am Sep 30, 2010 9:42am
Thanks for the recordings Dim. I was able to get audio and video to play on Quicktime while audio only on VLC, which was sorta weird as usually its the other way around.

Anyways, anyone going to his presentation in Vegas?
  • #9,804
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:51am Sep 30, 2010 9:51am
Been a while since I posted anything in this thread so here goes.

Short AUD/USD (yes I know there is strength north). 4 Hour Inside Bar off of a quad top (see circled chart) which to me implies that we are hitting some strong resistance created by the pre bust top or 9800. Short on the break of the low which has occured an my ultimate downside look is the strong resistance formed (line drawn on daily chart) which happens to correlate with the 38.2 fib level and is close to the 93.50 round number.

Will we get there, I am unsure however got a 40 pip risk for a potential downside that has a good return. I will probably be a slow process with the strength in the dollar (AUD) showing is stuff.

Charts below to help with the rambling

RT
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  • #9,805
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:04am Oct 1, 2010 7:04am
Hi,

Just visiting the thread from time to time and was very interested to see the video from Joel. Thanks to the OP for posting the link. I've just switched on my charts and notice EUR/USD is currently making new 20 day highs and there's a DIBs long setup on the hourly at this moment.

I think this setup qualifies as a hot hand DIBs trade as Joel talks about in the video?

Regards,

- TTP -
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  • #9,806
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:08am Oct 1, 2010 8:08am
not a matter of preference of all

its a matter of positive mathematical expectation. You need to back test a method first. Maybe taking the others side works, maybe it doesn't .........but back test it first........

Quoting coronajazz
What caught my eye in the presentation, was also taking a counter trend trade. In the first line when he was describing the dibs rules Joel said " take the breakout of inside bar, with stop and reverse on the other side".

This type of trading was discouraged by Peter Crowns some two years ago when he was asked by someone in Bemac`s thread, and would definitely end up with a lot of whipsaw and putting hit ratio of this method even lower, but it can also provide you with some very very extraordinary early entries which can payoff...
  • #9,807
  • Oct 1, 2010 5:55pm Oct 1, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting razorboy
not a matter of preference of all

its a matter of positive mathematical expectation. You need to back test a method first. Maybe taking the others side works, maybe it doesn't .........but back test it first........
I was misunderstood!

I like trowing ideas on table a lot. Doesnt mean that I trade it (the idea) or encourage someone to trade it before a carefull research is conducted. I wouldnt put money at risk at anything I havent checked and researched in detail.

But...

Even if something works (have positive expectation), there are a lot of things that come down to a preference of a trader who decides:

-more trades v.s less trades.
-short timeframe v.s long timeframe (opportunity v.s cost)
-how much drawdown can he/she bear
-how many losing trades in a row
-bigger profitability or smoother equity curve.

This is what I was thinking about when I said preference.

Best regards

Coronajazz!
You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #9,808
  • Oct 3, 2010 4:45am Oct 3, 2010 4:45am
nice set up on the daily UJ, anyone catch it?
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #9,809
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:37am Oct 4, 2010 7:37am
Quoting alkemi
A couple of years ago, after a few phone conversations, it became apparent to me that Mr. Rensinks insights into trading were of a quality and nature quite far beyond the usual I had encountered. This prompted me to jump in my car and drive 4 hours to spend the afternoon with him over a burger.......


Please tell us more Alkemi..........
  • #9,810
  • Edited 10:07am Oct 4, 2010 8:40am | Edited 10:07am
The video reminded me of an area of interest that I would like to hear (or see) anyone's ideas on --

Back in the day, PC mentioned he had some additional indication of which IBs to take which improve his % "2-5 times." As far as I know, he never added anything else to that. The subsequent group speculation on this thread (as far as I was able to read before passing out) was that he meant structural points such as S/R, trendlines, fibs and so forth. In the video, however, Joel makes a somewhat similar claim as PC but says it's based in "volatility breakout."

IIRC, Joel mentions volatility breakout at least twice. Once that it is a core system which gives consistent returns independent of DIBs. And second, as a filter or addition to increase the odds on DIBs entries. Although this meshes with what PC said, the lack of specificity only leaves me with a guess that they were referring to the same thing -- but I dont really know.

If they were trading the 6E, I would have some ideas at least of what they were talking about in terms of volatility breakout. But, based on their charts, it looks like they were both trading spot. Anways, point of all this is to ask -- what are your ideas on what they are looking at with regard to vol b/o and spot forex in the DIBs context?
  • #9,811
  • Oct 4, 2010 9:12am Oct 4, 2010 9:12am
Sounds as if it`s a version of the turtles trading system, they used a 20 period ATR as a measure of volatility, here`s a pdf but i have the book in hardback which has much more info on both S1 and S2 set ups.
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File Type: pdf turtles.pdf   409 KB | 1,366 downloads
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #9,812
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:09am Oct 4, 2010 10:09am
Thanks for the tip. They have mentioned the Turtles, so maybe you are onto something. Will give it some thought :nerd:
  • #9,813
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:46am Oct 5, 2010 3:46am
Quoting Juan Grande
Please tell us more Alkemi..........
*********
The first thing that struck me upon meeting Joel, and you see it confirmed in his DIBS presentation, was how much importance he places upon backtesting before a dollar of his ever goes to risk. For example, I was always intrigued by the Turtles trading system and had planned on some day funding an account with which to trade it. However, I was more than willing to accept the fact that history had already deemed it a successful system and I did'nt need to backtest it at all to confirm this or to get a feel for how much pain one may need to withstand in the form of drawdowns in order to get to the point of profits. Well Joel, being a staunch trend-follower himself also had an interest in Turtle/Donchian type trading methods, but he pulled out his laptop and could give me an exact idea on a per market basis as just what one could expect if they wished to trade that way. I was willing to just trade it blindly without a clear idea of what kind of drawdowns could be expected or just how big of an account would give me the greatest likelyhood of withstanding such drawdowns before new equity highs might be possible. Joel was not willing to do any such thing.

Another point that he made that had a big impact on my trading was what he called his "#1 Rule for Trading". Prior to this rule really clicking for me, I was a serial retracement hunter, meaning I would only enter markets that had retraced significantly from their last impulse high or low. But here is Joels #1 Rule for Trading that cured me of that trading disease:

" If you buy new highs and sell new lows, you will collect ALL of the winners and miss some of the losers. This simple rule swings the probabilities into your favor and helps to limit the big negative outliers.
If you place an order under the current market to buy on a retracement (or a sell order above the market to sell on a rally), you will own ALL of the losers and miss some of the winners (usually the largest ones). This swings the overall probabilities against you and makes your job harder."


If you look at any of Joels systems whether it be DIBS, FirstStrike, or One Night Stand, you will see that they are all structured in a way that has him following the above rule. They all buy on strength and sell on weakness. Just think, if you get up and do this every single day you trade you will guarantee yourself that you are aboard every single big meltup rally, and every single waterfall decline that occurs in the market or markets you follow! It is really very powerful.

  • #9,814
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:50am Oct 5, 2010 10:50am
Gold Daily, some great set-ups over the last couple of weeks

...none of which i took...lol
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #9,815
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:52pm Oct 5, 2010 12:52pm
Thanks for taking the time to write that up and share with the rest of us Alkemi.

Joel, like the Turtles, trades across various asset classes. Do you think an fx trader can gain a similar and sufficient diversification solely among a mix of currency pairs to maximize this style of trading? Or, is asset diversification outside the spot fx market mandatory?
  • #9,816
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:24pm Oct 5, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting Juan Grande
Thanks for taking the time to write that up and share with the rest of us Alkemi.

Joel, like the Turtles, trades across various asset classes. Do you think an fx trader can gain a similar and sufficient diversification solely among a mix of currency pairs to maximize this style of trading? Or, is asset diversification outside the spot fx market mandatory?
************
Diversification is definitely a plus when trading robust methodologies such as Joel does. Obviously, if you are trading with a definable edge, the more you can exploit that edge in terms of the number of markets you expose it to, the sooner that edge will begin to assert itself and begin showing up as profits in your account (assuming your execution is as perfect as possible...). But while diversification can help, it's not absolutely vital. Remember that in his $500 challenge account, Joel was only trading the EurUsd, GbpUsd, GbpJpy, UsdJpy, UsdChf, and the XAG. There is alot of correlation (the exact opposite of diversification) in that mix of pairs that Joel chose. But that correlation can also be a blessing at times. There are weeks when trading a system such as FirstStrike when a group of correlated pairs will all take off screaming. One definitely does'nt mind not being diversified during weeks like that! I think Joel rightly sees the Forex market as being one of the few remaining places where relatively small amounts of money can be compounded into much larger figures by those who have waded thru the muck and gotten to the few core principles of profitable trading. More diversification can come with time as profits begin to accrue.
  • #9,817
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:04pm Oct 5, 2010 3:04pm
Quoting alkemi
*********

Another point that he made that had a big impact on my trading was what he called his "#1 Rule for Trading". Prior to this rule really clicking for me, I was a serial retracement hunter, meaning I would only enter markets that had retraced significantly from their last impulse high or low. But here is Joels #1 Rule for Trading that cured me of that trading disease:

" If you buy new highs and sell new lows, you will collect [b][font=TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT][font=TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT]ALL...
Ha!

This notion is something I realized few months ago (not bragging), and use it in arguments of why trading the breakout is superior with "waiting for pullback". I am very glad to be on a same page with Mr. Rensink.

Put it in other words,

1. price has to go through your stop (breakout entry), in order to reach a target (profit). Not that I am advocating using of profit targets.
2. price has to go through your limit (pullback entry), in order to reach your stop loss (loss).Catching all the losses there.
3. price doesnt have to go through your stop entry in order to reach your potential stop loss. Missing some of the losers.
4. Most important, Price doesnt have to pull back to your limit entry in order to reach a target. Best trades wont.

This is very, very important to always have in mind.

Also as addition to point 4.

When trading channel breakouts (donchian, pennants, triangles etc), if the breakout candle closes bellow entry point (for long), close the trade and put a reentry on the new high, dont wait for SL to get hit. Best trades do not close bellow the entry.

This one is tested and works wonders for me. Of course everyone has to do his/her`s own research before putting it to action.

Best regards

Coronajazz
You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #9,818
  • Oct 5, 2010 8:43pm Oct 5, 2010 8:43pm
Quoting alkemi
*********..." If you buy new highs and sell new lows, you will collect ALL of the winners and miss some of the losers. This simple rule swings the probabilities into your favor and helps to limit the big negative outliers."
Given that this thread is the DIBS method that Peter got from Joel and Peter said he knew which trades would be more successful than others, I guess this is the answer we have been looking for!
Good Trading
  • #9,819
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:54pm Oct 6, 2010 6:54pm
I trade first Strike as well

have to be careful including the crosses in there - playing the g/j over exposes you to the g/u and u/j


Quoting alkemi
************
Diversification is definitely a plus when trading robust methodologies such as Joel does. Obviously, if you are trading with a definable edge, the more you can exploit that edge in terms of the number of markets you expose it to, the sooner that edge will begin to assert itself and begin showing up as profits in your account (assuming your execution is as perfect as possible...). But while diversification can help, it's not absolutely vital. Remember that in his $500 challenge account, Joel was only trading the EurUsd, GbpUsd, GbpJpy,...
  • #9,820
  • Oct 7, 2010 2:52am Oct 7, 2010 2:52am
Quoting razorboy
I trade first Strike as well

have to be careful including the crosses in there - playing the g/j over exposes you to the g/u and u/j

hey razorboy, hows those u/j trades going,
mine although i have cut my exposure to it, i still have some going.
HOW LOW CAN IT GO????
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