The concept of "trend" which I cannot grasp | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading Equity Millipede Concept by Concept 99 replies

Broker Challenge "NDD/STP" vs. True "ECN" and "Mkt Mkr" broker talk 46 replies

Dealing with "Invalid Price", "Requote", "Server Busy" in MT4 3 replies

Looking For "COUNTER TREND" To Become "TREND" 29 replies

"Trend" , how do you actually trace the current trend ? 23 replies

Attachments: The concept of "trend" which I cannot grasp
Exit Attachments

The concept of "trend" which I cannot grasp

  • #61
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:20pm Oct 1, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting Dopey


Your attempt at sarcasm is feeble, but it illustrates a phenomenon on these and other trading forums. It's the fact that so many people come on here expecting that others are going to help them. Some even think they deserve to be helped, that it's the responsibility of others to help them.

.
Oh dear.. Dopey is spot on.. hes prob the only poster in this thread that will be of any help to you yet you dont see it that way cause hes not offering a sollution that will have you trading a profitable system by next week.

You seem to like the green spandex approach and thats cool, but it just proves dopeys point. See, he didnt have to bother with you but he did and you chose to ignore the value in his point and reply with sarcasm... Dopey thinks oh well fk it i dont care, and you venture on with the green spandex carrot dangled 2 feet in front of your face... See this is Forex Factory... Welcome... Enjoy your stay but always remember this post.

The smart get unhelpfuller (yes I know thats not a word) the dumb get dumber.

But this is fine.... Really its all part of the learning process, I mean no offence to you or emerald eyes.
Time hides Nothing
  • #62
  • Edited 2:23pm Oct 1, 2010 1:45pm | Edited 2:23pm
  • #63
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:50pm Oct 1, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Forum: Rookie Discussion
Topic: The concept of trend which 'we' cannot grasp.

If by 'green spandex appoach' you are refering to my dumb avatar pic of John C Riley playing Dr. Steve Brule then how does that help our discussion? This is a rookie forum and I've stated at least 3 times than I'm in the same boat with Carnegie. If you're basing people's factorial approach to trend trading on their avatar pic then no one in their right mind would consider taking your judgement seriously thus rendering your posts as wasted space.

Let's work on this...
Ok.. Granted.

ALright im gonna go back, look at the charts and offer my 200 pips worth...
Time hides Nothing
  • #64
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:55pm Oct 1, 2010 1:55pm
So Ive looked at the chart and funny thing is what I first replied I would reply again...

So the said "retracement" was a reatracement on a bigger TF but still it was a downtrend for the H1 TF right?

Whats so hard whats the prob here green eyes?
Time hides Nothing
  • #65
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:57pm Oct 1, 2010 1:57pm
Yes it was a strong downtrend on the 1hr chart. What made me curious was why did it drop so fast yet found sudden support? That's when I backed up and looked at what was happening.
  • #66
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:01pm Oct 1, 2010 2:01pm
Here we have the big picture

We have a Downtrend and a retracement of that Downtrend.

That retracement could also be called an uptrend in its own right.

lets zoom in further
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trnd.jpg Size: 208 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #67
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:05pm Oct 1, 2010 2:05pm
I agree, that retracement would be an uptrend.
  • #68
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:05pm Oct 1, 2010 2:05pm
Actually Fk that lets zoom out

So here is the even bigger picture and now our big downtrend from earlier plays the role as retracement. Yeah?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: blah.jpg Size: 132 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #69
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:21pm Oct 1, 2010 2:21pm
Ya it looks as though this downtrend is retracing that huge uptrend move.
  • #70
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:31pm Oct 1, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Ya it looks as though this downtrend is retracing that huge uptrend move.
So theres more than one trend in play at any time... your job is to be smart and look at when the weak trend caves in to the stronger trend... Easier said than done (but not really)

You can zoom in and go the other way there may be an intraday down trend which in the grand scheme of things is meaningless yet a scalper may be trading it but when the longer trend steps back in to pick up the bargain prices those scalpers will be pushed out.
Time hides Nothing
  • #71
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:51pm Oct 1, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting Dopey
I'm sure you would, but the fact is there are some things you aren't ready to process.

For example, my first post in this thread actually answered the question you couldn't even formulate properly, yet you didn't realize it. Why? Because you have to go through the learning curve that everyone goes through. It's not a knock on you unless you decide to take it that way. If you say it was too cryptic, it is because you don't have the underlying knowledge to understand it. There are some on these boards who if they read that would know exactly what...
I actually did understand a bit of it, and the reason for me starting this post "that I couldn't even formulate properly" is because I wanted to understand the whole bit.
You see that what appears to you is not of value, it is the underlying thought. Which obviously, you understood. And to be even more clear, IT WAS TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS.

Now I am, in all honesty and whatever your individual experiences have been with other junior members, NOT INTERESTED IN ARGUING WITH YOU.

I do understand and agree that you have 10 000X more knowledge than I.
And this is for you to understand that this is the reason why I come to this forum - to learn from people as yourself.

And yes, I am one of those who will swear that I don't want anything spoon-fed to them. Because I have an experience from this. What I read three months ago, I am reading again; and it seems to me that the things I thought I "got" then. I didn't. I am starting to realize them.


Quoting Dopey
There you go, you just made my point. It's all about philosophy, both yours and everyone else participating in markets. Yet, you think it's not important. Based on that, on a scale of 1-10 of the learning curve, you're at about 0.5.
You are not understanding me, I am all in for philosophy. But I also understand that in order for me to understand the philosophy I have to have all bits together first.

The fact that "reversal and retracement is not known by anyone" is understandable for me, but not in depth. After I do understand it, the philosophy parts will come in an make it all clearer.


Quoting Dopey
No, it's not an attitude, it's a belief. I think English is not your first language, but it's pretty damn good and you should know the difference.

And you are ignorant of trading and there's nothing wrong with that at all. Ignorance means lack of knowledge. It's not accepting one's ignorance that is dangerous and prevents one from learning.
It might be an attitude aswell as an belief. I have my thoughts about you aswell.

No, and the fact that I agree and realize the fact that I am ignorant (by me asking for clarification.. IN A THREAD) perhaps illustrates to you that I am realizing that I do not know much about trading.
And perhaps also, why I asked the question in the "rookies" section. That's the philosophy.



Quoting Dopey
Your attempt at sarcasm is feeble, but it illustrates a phenomenon on these and other trading forums. It's the fact that so many people come on here expecting that others are going to help them. Some even think they deserve to be helped, that it's the responsibility of others to help them.

What you and others fail to realize is that there is nothing to be gained from helping you other than some remote and vague sense of satisfaction. It's one thing to help a stranger change a flat tire, or pull someone's errant kid out of oncoming traffic. There's...
Ok listen. I am NOT expecting you to help me, I simply asked a question TO ANYONE in order to receive some help. I am not expecting anything.
There is no responsibility whatsoever to help anyone but with a big forum like this. I thought I might get some help isntead of writing an essay on what I believe and don't.

As said again, I am not here to argue with you. In all honesty I don't care about who you are and how many countless hours you've been staring at the screen. I just want someone with knowledge to get me on the right way. (NOTICE: GET ME ON THE RIGHT WAY - NOT GIVING ME THE INFORMATION DIRECTLY).
Before you say anyting, NO, it is not a responsibility. It would only be a kind thing to do.

And yes, I do understand your first post was "getting me in the right way" but I needed more information.
  • #72
  • Oct 1, 2010 6:46pm Oct 1, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
So theres more than one trend in play at any time... your job is to be smart and look at when the weak trend caves in to the stronger trend... Easier said than done (but not really)

You can zoom in and go the other way there may be an intraday down trend which in the grand scheme of things is meaningless yet a scalper may be trading it but when the longer trend steps back in to pick up the bargain prices those scalpers will be pushed out.
Ok so we can say that we're in an overall downtrend. Here's a weekly chart I attached, we've got lower highs (and lower lows which I dont really care too much abt).

So this daily uptrend I'm looking at is just a retracement to this weekly downtrend. I'm now in bearish pattern mode. Just by looking over the pattern its making, its starting to look like a bearish Gartley. I've drawn 2 fibs over our last major high (X) and one over the recent high before "A". I now see convergence with their 88.6 & 161.8 fibs respectively along with that downtrend line I made. So that's going to be where I'm looking for the downtrend to resume.

Does that make sense or do I have too many lines. lol. I only need to use those 2 fib retracements I stated the others can be ignored.
  • #73
  • Oct 1, 2010 6:47pm Oct 1, 2010 6:47pm
Heres the chart art you can see the downtrend line from the first chart in the 2nd.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #74
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:45pm Oct 1, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I like your explanation Dan. We can't know when a trend starts for sure but the more time frames that support a trend, the more odds are on our side.

I think this might be true at the beginning and in the middle of a trend but not at the end of it. Also just as we can not know when the trend starts it is also so that we cannot know where it will end.

Now the very start of a 'trend'.. I like to keep it basic with a daily or 4 hour chart but if you think about it.. the 4 hour chart makes a higher...
Agreed. Which brings us back to Dopey's response at the beginning of the thread where he(?) stated that time frame must also be considered. I think Cindyxxxx also refers to time frame as well. In this sense I think time frame refers to how long you are willing to hold a trade be it losing or winning.

In the end all we can do is participate in a trade that we think will be in favor of the 'trend' as we recognize it by using low risk entries. Then if we are wrong we will be stopped out at a 'low risk' to our account. If we are right then we will be rewarded for holding (and/or adding positions) as the trend develops into the future.



Dan
  • #75
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:10pm Oct 1, 2010 8:10pm
Sorry for any confusion Dan, I ment to say that the more time frames that support the start of a trend, the more odds are on our side to get in to a low risk/ high profit position since the start of the trend is the sweet spot.

Case in point, the charts I just posted. Id like to go short if the weekly/daily/4hr are all showing signs of a new downtrend leg. (This can be applied to the hourly/30min/10min for example).
  • #76
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:43pm Oct 1, 2010 8:43pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Sorry for any confusion Dan, I ment to say that the more time frames that support the start of a trend, the more odds are on our side to get in to a low risk/ high profit position since the start of the trend is the sweet spot.

Maybe, but sometimes when more TF charts support a trend it is the end of the trend. Trends will always start on the lowest 'TF' - that being only a tick, which ironically has no given time frame.

[color=#2e8b57]And since it's only a maybe...
Fine, go short whenever you see fit. But use a low risk entry and manage the trade accordingly.



  • #77
  • Oct 2, 2010 1:20am Oct 2, 2010 1:20am
I am new and pretty green to forex so my info is based on my time of intense study and playing the pennymarket, trips and double 0s, mostly extremely risky.

Ask yourself the question was that price level it dropped from, did it have support/resistance in the past at that point. If you could see that and the momentum did not break through it right away then may have a retracement coming. Remember the Matrix "there is no spoon", so there is no trend only momentum, which can be spotted on the TF.

Risk aversion is hardwired into our brains, we have a high probability to fail in high risk situations. Strange but true, looking over why we want to press the buy/sell button, our minds fight us. The whole reason why the Marines train their soldiers like they do, they are removing the hard wired fail safe, that's why they can charge forward while bullets fly by, they rely on their training, it's second nature. Why am I saying this, go over as many charts as you can and look at the history, you will start to get a feel for what is happening in the present, you will feel more confident when you see a setup you have seen before. That is what I am starting to do as I trade without indicators, they get in my way and make me over think my trade.

I do look or have started to look at multiple TF when trading, I am in demo mode, I traded live with $200 and lost it all, I could see my training was not second nature yet and I have gone back to demo. I was guessing at my entries, not any more. If things are looking good across the TF then it makes me more confident but I need to see those support/resistance clearly, do they break easy or hold easy, some things to think about.
  • #78
  • Edited 5:22am Oct 2, 2010 4:13am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting Carnegie
Hello there,

Using a simulator, I have understood what I am doing wrong in my trading.

After several days of pulling my hair I have realized that it is the mistake everyone does in the beginning of their tradingcareer.
It is trading COUNTER-TREND and HAVING AN OVERCONFIDENCE; and by that I mean that we newbies think we can catch EVERY SINGLE MOVE.
Even the 15 pips correction before the 150 pips move back in trend again.
And as always, time tells if we are right or wrong. And in my case, WRONG.


[color=black]Now, I have...
Trend trading works for me, I was taught to trade 123 reversals in the direction of price in two higher timeframes.

For example, if price is bullish / resting on supp on H4, use whatever method you like to go long on M15, m5 123, hammer reversal etc.
  • #79
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:06pm Oct 2, 2010 8:06pm
Most of the confusion on trend is not knowing what kind of trader you are...also known as just trying to make money with no rules in place that govern your trading decisions.

Remember trends form on different time frames knowing how to trade and which trend is determined by your role in the market.


-Mike
  • #80
  • Edited 12:58pm Oct 8, 2010 12:44pm | Edited 12:58pm
Trend is 'collective sentiment'. One will never ever be able to understand the 'collective sentiment' until and unless indicators are off from the chart.

One highly successful S&P 500 futures day trader whom i know uses only price to work out trading set up..he does not even need charts because charts are derivative of price- Charts are derived from price. Charts makes you blind. The originality is price, then charts are made, then indicators.

Trading is perception..individual perception of what is high and what is low. That individual perception is aggregated and presented to you in price.

I am quite sure with my own personal experience, majority of traders have turned blind with indicators. This bad habit does not go easily without losses and stopping trading for few months to think in other direction.

Just like alcohol and smoking does not go away easily, trading with indicators is a bad habit which does not go away easily.

It is just my personal opinion what worked and what didn't worked for me. My highest regards to profitable technical analysts.
0 traders viewing now