USD/JPY Discussion

if yen gets stronger and stronger, Japan should convert them into more gold mines and all other commodities and assets and corner the world !

forget about Toyota and Canon etc .... generate income from mines and assets all over the globe ... diversify ... surely they would have heard of Monopoly (the board game) ... buy up everything !

be mightier than China and USA ... here is a chance to rule the world !

cheeky diabolical

I have a suggestion to BOJ. It is better to intervene on a Friday afternoon when the volume is low. You can manipulate the currency with less burden

Just catching up on a web resource I use that lists the following - this was published right at the start of the US equity open; sounds believable to me - the USDJPY chart is really wedged into a corner under that post-intervention TL heading lower but defended at 83.16.

It's completely plausible to me that insiders in Japan and their banks have confidence that their buys of USDJPY will be rewarded, so they're enthusiastically defending 83.16 as emissaries of BoJ. Phase 1 of the reward might be another intervention, accompanied by (Phase II) other yen easing measures - you have to think the fumbling BoJ in combination with MoF/gov't could cook up something for at least a fake rally, and then look to other world events and a shift to possible buying of USD$.

Nud mentioned a Monday gap/open and enthusiastic start to the week with intervention: sounds plausible to me. Reminds me of the $1 Trillion that the EU threw at their Banks earlier this year, and Olli Rehn actually had a 2am Monday morning (Europe time) news conference to announce, and the EURUSD melted-up something like 350 pips. (It all too got undone in the coming weeks, but we won't go there!)

October 1, 2010 9:37 AM USD/JPY--We have been hearing that Japanese banks out of Tokyo are still bidding in the 83.10/20 area... USD/JPY--We have been hearing that Japanese banks out of Tokyo are still bidding in the 83.10/20 area...They've apparently been asked to stay late on Friday, but at some point they may pull out and call it a weekend. Now about 1030 pm Tokyo time.

Here's my UJ chart; MT4 has issues with TLs between timeframes, but this looks a little busty-outy to me with significant bottom-fishing volume; important to keep in mind that your liquidity provider will not show actual consolidated global volume, but rather from a VSA perspective, the facts others are piling in through your LP and that the bars are up is a positive sign. For my futures chart, check here.

I think there is an economy war going on. China is buying debts from US and Japan and can dump them as needed. Already no.2 and aiming to be #1 very soon. I need to read Sun zu(art of war) to understand this better.

I think Can not

Hard to Fight against the Market

ok it's look against but eu is overbought and need only small signal for correction, uj we have now nice support, etc.

but yes I don't expect intervention

they both are well versed in Sun Tzu's Art of War ... interesting to see 2 equally matched chess players at play ...

for me, i think i'll just stick to my Archery ie my charts ... and try to guess the correct direction ...consistent +20 or +30 pips per day is good enough for me ....

let the Eagle , Dragon and the Sumo wrestler wrestle themselves out ...

devilish and cheeky


-

another bearish descending triangle in the forming .... ?

Haha...I like that. but be careful about any short positions over the weekend

Currency War Only Likely To Escalate
By NICHOLAS HASTINGS
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


LONDON -- This will now be war, war .. not jaw, jaw.
The competitive devaluations that are becoming common currency across the globe are likely to intensify in coming weeks as the dollar, as well as most of other major currencies, remain out of favor.
Despite the denial by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega was all too right. There is an "international currency war" being waged.
The conflict is no doubt under discussion by leading finance ministers and central bankers and will continue to be so as they bump into each other at various meetings over the next few weeks.
But, that doesn't mean anything will be done about it.
Currency intervention by a host of central banks in the Far East has erupted as the global recovery from the financial crisis has faltered and international investors have started to look outside the major economies for higher yields.
This shift of funds into developing and emerging markets has come at a cost. As foreign investments have flooded in, the currencies of these countries have risen, putting their own recoveries at risk as their exports become less competitive.
It isn't surprising they have all rushed to try and push their currencies back down. Over the last few days, the central banks of South Korea, India, Malaysia, Taiwan, the Philippines and Singapore have all apparently been in the market selling their own currencies against the dollar.
And it is more than likely that there will be much more intervention to come.
The immediate reasons for the dollar's decline aren't about to go away. U.S. economic data continue to point to a fragile recovery that might still need more quantitative easing. However, as speeches by several Federal Reserve governors earlier this week show, there is little agreement within the central bank of how to proceed.
In other words, the uncertainty that has been driving the dollar down in recent weeks is likely to prevail, especially before the Fed next meets in early November.
See the dollar's fall against the yen over the last few months:
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/4660
The dollar's decline against other G-4 currencies has already prompted the Bank of Japan to intervene to push the yen lower for the first time since early 2004 and the European Central Bank has certainly seemed eager to talk the euro down with its warnings over the euro-zone economy.
But, it is the more general shift away from G-4 into less developed markets that could well prove the real problem.
The U.S. itself is hardly concerned about the dollar's decline. If anything, Washington is quite happy with the slide, especially while China is refusing to allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate more rapidly and the Obama administration is desperate to keep the U.S. economy as buoyant as possible before it faces mid-term elections next month.
So, there is certainly no reason for the international investment community to lose its appetite for more developing country assets.
If anything, this appetite could grow, especially if central bank reserve managers jump on the bandwagon. Their interest in G-4 currencies, which made up 97% of their total foreign exchange reserves in 2009, may well start to fall if the printing presses in the developed world start rolling again.
Also, according to a recent study by Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Financial Markets, it will be the more liquid markets of Canada, Australia and Korea that stand to benefit the most.
New data from the International Monetary Fund already show that second-quarter central bank buying of the Canadian, New Zealand and Australian dollars has already taken the level of "other currencies' in foreign exchange reserves up to 3.3%.
Downward pressure on the dollar was still evident early Friday, despite some strong U.S. data Thursday helping to lift sentiment. A strong rise in China's latest purchasing managers' index encouraged further moves into riskier asset markets with the euro rising to $1.3653 by 0645 GMT from $1.3632 late Thursday in New York, according to EBS.
However, some profits were taken on the euro after German retail sales failed to show a rise in August and fell by 0.2% on the month after dropping 0.4% in July.
The euro was still up, though, at Y113.93 from Y113.72, while the dollar was nearly flat at Y83.46 from Y83.44.

If you don't mind me asking, what is your basis and how heavy are you into your trade?

I am Long as well but with this trade I did something that I rarely do and that is I went into it for the long term. 81.50 is my SL. I made this trade before there was any serious talk of intervention. In the meantime I have been scalping the hell out of this Pair so even if it drops below 82 I will still be up on my Yen trades for the last 6-8 weeks. I do not offer this to gloat but rather to point out that you can be profitable, to say,when you make only Long trades when the Pair is overall in a steep decline.

I raised my SL to 81.50 from 79.25 when the Japanese Gov basically said that they were drawing a line in the sand at 82. If your SL is above that then by no means am I suggesting that you lower it but if you are waiting for intervention and that is the sole reason for entering your trade I would hang in there and if it gets down there then and only then would I expect a major intervention. If they don't do it at that level then I would bail and never trust them suckers again for as long as I live.

I hope that everything turns out in your favor when all is done and said.

I must have missed this....when exactly did they say that their line in the sand was 82.00 ?? Where did you see this?

think he means when they intervened.

Oh ok. Thanks. That's way up there at 82.80/90 area. Big difference from 82 even.

My average long is 84.8. I will hold it for some time. But SL is around 80

There's also a symmetrical on the 2h that goes back to the last intervention that's now to the apex.BOJ said friday they will take action very soon..

How can there is no schedule about BOJ meeting at forexfactory calendar? Is it canceled?any news about the meeting?

As far as I'm aware, there is no scheduled press conference after these meetings, so there is no specific time when any 'action' might take place. I doubt that anything will happen until after these meetings have concluded. Perhaps the outcome of these meetings will occur when we least expect it!!

Japan Outlook: BOJ Policy Board Meeting Starts: DJ Newswires

Let see what happen then.