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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,321
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:19am Sep 30, 2010 9:19am
Quoting PipMaxzz
End of the month the Jap companies are unloading their USD to take home the Yen. All the reasons for BOJ to move it up for companies to take advantage. I am hoping for some UJ bullishness now
Yea, I just decided to let my 20 pips ride on the chance of a continuing up movement. Even though iot looks lke it's stopped....20vs200 is a no brainer.
  • #19,322
  • Edited 10:47am Sep 30, 2010 9:52am | Edited 10:47am
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
after this news http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19269
i'm changing strategy, sell on rallies
and this very good chart, tells us everything
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18772
chart with actual situation on USDX
if Naoto Kan is a good negotiator, we can to expect global intervention after G20 meeting
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  • #19,323
  • Sep 30, 2010 12:01pm Sep 30, 2010 12:01pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
comments
daily: we see intervention move price only above 23.6fib level - broke this lvl mean nothing - fail
h4: in my opinion easy targets /expansion fibo/ 38.2,50.0
and USDX chart: no reason to strengtening USD /i'm waiting for 78.00, selected point/
BOJ havn't experienced traders, and technical analytics. i was make some money with their intervention but their move was illogical, and without help other countries their intervention always will be fail

so, if you live in tokyo,and you're experienced trader go to the office BOJ
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  • #19,324
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:30pm Sep 30, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting bialy
comments
daily: we see intervention move price only above 23.6fib level - broke this lvl mean nothing - fail
h4: in my opinion easy targets /expansion fibo/ 38.2,50.0
and USDX chart: no reason to strengtening USD /i'm waiting for 78.00, selected point/
BOJ havn't experienced traders, and technical analytics. i was make some money with their intervention but their move was illogical, and without help other countries their intervention always will be fail

so, if you live in tokyo,and you're experienced trader go to the office BOJ
I don't understand why you picked that spot for your fibo retracements there on the first chart.Shouldn't you go with the high/low of the whole cycle instead of picking a correction in the cycle?
  • #19,325
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:43pm Sep 30, 2010 6:43pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
sometimes i'm looking for different "settings" of fibonacci
previous chart is only last solid move down
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  • #19,326
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:45pm Sep 30, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting bialy
sometimes i'm looking for different "settings" of fibonacci
previous chart is only last solid move down

i like ur chart. What kind of bands are those?
  • #19,327
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:57pm Sep 30, 2010 6:57pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
Quoting mfoste1
i like ur chart. What kind of bands are those?
two my modifications bollinger bands from MT4
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19171
looks good with stochastic crosses in this zones, i'm still searching good signals
  • #19,328
  • Sep 30, 2010 7:24pm Sep 30, 2010 7:24pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
reason: USDX /sell on rallies/
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  • #19,329
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:23pm Sep 30, 2010 9:23pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
* 01 Oct 10: 01:43 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, USD/CHF Flows - MoF Noda verbal intervention as Yen firms; Y2.12tn "cost"
Verbal intervention from MoF Noda, with USD/JPY still offered around 83.47-50. This coming after MoF data show BoJ spent Y2.1249trln or $25.37bln (depending on the averages rate BoJ bought from 15-year lows of 82.87 to 85.94). MoF Yoshihiko Noda says will take decisive steps on FX whenever necessary. Economy remains in severe situation, closely watching downside risks. On FX, MoF Noda has reasons to be concerned, given that USD/JPY has lost a chunk of its "intervention gains" from 82.87 to 85.94. A 3-big figure "gain" at the price of Y2.124tn. Only to see USD/JPY hitting post intervention lows of 83.16 yest - thus on a "simple" calculation - leaving only "29" pips of the intervention gains. Markets likely to test BoJ/MoF resolve again, though talks of Kampo/ "covert" BoJ bids at 83.00-20. USD/CHF at 0.9803-05, interest to sell on rallies on weak USD, eye 0.97.WL
  • #19,330
  • Sep 30, 2010 10:39pm Sep 30, 2010 10:39pm
Quoting grashid
...am 90% chartist...so dun bother wtf BS fundamental....keep hoping for 2nd intervence for what...

keep business on n look at the chart..not less than 200+pips down...keep waiting or take oppurtunitity to bank in some pips? why waste time?

personally...1st intervence already failed to me a s Uj not able to break 86.30 a major resistance to keep north...that it...

n remember historical also never lie....how many time this activity is successfull...can u give me the figure n when? come on..this is all a rethoric to shift retail trader...
No problem banking pips, just not on this pair until after the meetings of boj and govt next week. While the threat of intervention lingers, imo it's prudent to pay attention to fundies. Also, it's not as if I, or anyone else that I see here is sitting on their ass "hoping for intervention".......like I said, there are plenty of pips to be made on other pairs, but this pair requires much caution, no matter which way you wish to trade.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,331
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:38pm Sep 30, 2010 11:38pm
Quoting realjumper
3.5 trillion might be the turnover of fx, but that doesn't mean that 3.5 trillion is buying the Yen!! There are many currencies traded, not just usd/jpy for trades to speculate on.

The quickest printing press would win?.....I think not. Obama has to start from 0. BOJ has a huge amount they an spend right now, while the printing presses are gearing up!!

Even though Japan will have to go it alone, and even though the long term outlook for such intervetion is unlikely to succeed, between the Japanese govt and BOJ, if they get their shit together...
LOL there's 3.5 trillion turnover but the smart money is what dictates moves and theres certainly alot more of that. Think about aggregation and how if risk is "off" yen is bought. Right now its the way the market has evolved... and any money to be traded will see that if risk is off to buy yen...

Its also because theres a JPY pair and USD pair against a full basket of currencies so it gets hedged against during risk on.

Do you think that USA will start from 0? After years of power have you ever seen a country or empire give up power willingly? With the potential to social unrest around the world I highly doubt any single currency would be better off than others...

When USD is no longer trusted we will probably see JPY and USD fall through the ground sending all commodity currencies through the sky.

All commodity currencies look more and more like the new risk aversion currencies.

I'm not talking about short term wins... ofcourse BOJ can walk in and buy/sell to turn markets on the daily but it won't last. BOJ buys/sells yen everyday on open/close Asian market when the it is stable.
  • #19,332
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:55am Oct 1, 2010 1:55am
Quoting sidhujag
LOL there's 3.5 trillion turnover but the smart money is what dictates moves and theres certainly alot more of that. Think about aggregation and how if risk is "off" yen is bought. Right now its the way the market has evolved... and any money to be traded will see that if risk is off to buy yen...

Its also because theres a JPY pair and USD pair against a full basket of currencies so it gets hedged against during risk on.

Do you think that USA will start from 0? After years of power have you ever seen a country or empire give up power willingly?...
Well, we obviously have a very different understanding of the situation, and we trade differently, on different time frames!

So, good luck and trade well
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,333
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:42am Oct 1, 2010 2:42am
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  • #19,334
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:46am Oct 1, 2010 2:46am
watching if the bearish descending triangle will drop some pips ....




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  • #19,335
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:53am Oct 1, 2010 2:53am
hourly chart ....

will it or won't it ... ?

a test if it is a classical descending triangle that is said to be always bearish ....


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  • #19,336
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:55am Oct 1, 2010 2:55am
Quoting TheArcher
hourly chart ....

will it or won't it ... ?


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It will surely go down...for every 50 pips up, it moves 100 pips down. I am tired of this pair
  • #19,337
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:02am Oct 1, 2010 3:02am
Quoting PipMaxzz
It will surely go down...for every 50 pips up, it moves 100 pips down. I am tired of this pair
That word gives me the creeps.
  • #19,338
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:06am Oct 1, 2010 3:06am
ok ... took a shot !

shot from 83.32

protection : 83.50

target : 83.18

testing the bearish descending triangle


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  • #19,339
  • Edited 3:25am Oct 1, 2010 3:11am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting PipMaxzz
It will surely go down...for every 50 pips up, it moves 100 pips down. I am tired of this pair
if what u say is true , this is a fantastic insight !

then its very easy to make money ..

i won't be tired if i were u ! i will be very happy to go to bank laughing !!

cheeky

u mean it looks like this .... ?



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  • #19,340
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:17am Oct 1, 2010 3:17am
Quoting TheArcher
if what u say is true , this is a fantastic insight !

then its very easy to make money ..

i won't be tired if i were u ! i will be very happy to go to bank laughing !!

cheeky
...I am on the 95 percentile of traders.. struck on long UJ waiting for action from BOJ. I rarely trade on news and this is one of those times
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