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  • #299,181
  • Sep 30, 2010 3:41pm Sep 30, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting infinitus
Sorry Fontu,

are you counting Elliott Waves?

Inquiring minds want to know.


Best to you,

Markus
Mark

almost perfect 5 wave count and a really clasic ew set ups but I have based on fes and reatrcements ...

MAX eu should go to before correcting is 1.3740. This was my weekly target this week but does not look like we get there

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #299,182
  • Sep 30, 2010 3:52pm Sep 30, 2010 3:52pm
Good morning all, putting on my low volume hat

24 hr free link
http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/al?rnd=...1xE5GZNw%3D%3D
  • #299,183
  • Sep 30, 2010 3:57pm Sep 30, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Mr. Hatch,

that was only to see if you was attentive...
thanks, markus, it's much easier that way. looking at the chart i was looking for something that just wasn't there. with the information given, the requirements wouldn't have been fulfilled. attention is lacking a bit after a day like this.

it still would be easier, if market followed the rules
what i am asking myself now is, if the correction comes to an end soon, and basically we move a level up naming the waves... what does a new "cycle" start with? shouldn't that be the impulsive part?
  • #299,184
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:03pm Sep 30, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Mark

almost perfect 5 wave count and a really clasic ew set ups but I have based on fes and reatrcements ...

MAX eu should go to before correcting is 1.3740. This was my weekly target this week but does not look like we get there

Attachment
we're in the middle of nowhere.
I won't touch the "ENTER" button until low 1,37xx. (to short)
My opinion was : we will (should) see a big retracement in the next hours.

But bulls are really strong and it seems that nothing can stop this movement. Big boys are long, i have to admit it.

I live in France and I know that euro is bullshit especially now, but am i the only one ???
  • #299,185
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:06pm Sep 30, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Mark

almost perfect 5 wave count and a really clasic ew set ups but I have based on fes and reatrcements ...

MAX eu should go to before correcting is 1.3740. This was my weekly target this week but does not look like we get there

Attachment

Hello Malcolmb,

sometimes when we look at a chart with a great distance (or a high time frame) we can spot "easily" 5 waves or 3 waves.

But it is not easy like that. The waves are fractals. If you count a big wave a five, you have to find the fives in the subwaves.

And it is not easy like that. You have to apply the rules of EWT. And than, when you have a count, you should evaluate it with sentiment or sentiment indicators.

What should I say (no offense intended): Your 5 waves are not an EW 5, no impulse.

But when your tchnice works for you - why not :-)

At the end of the day only pips in our pocket counts :-)


Best to you,

Markus
  • #299,186
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:07pm Sep 30, 2010 4:07pm
Here is my opinion on EUR/USD going forward.

I am still a bear in USD so I only play eur/usd from long side/

But my opinion looks something like this.


EUR/USD Target 1.4 for end of 2010.

I think a correction is about to happen don't see any fundamental reason now.
But trade is really crowded right now.

I think Target for the correction can be either 1.35 or 1.33 area .

After that I see 1.4 happening.

Not a recommendation just mho.

Good Trading
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #299,187
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:09pm Sep 30, 2010 4:09pm
wtf.. usdchf spread = 11
  • #299,188
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:10pm Sep 30, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Mark

almost perfect 5 wave count and a really clasic ew set ups but I have based on fes and reatrcements ...

MAX eu should go to before correcting is 1.3740. This was my weekly target this week but does not look like we get there

Attachment
hello,u said your target was 1.3740 was that based on the previous resistance?
  • #299,189
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:14pm Sep 30, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Mark

almost perfect 5 wave count and a really clasic ew set ups but I have based on fes and reatrcements ...

MAX eu should go to before correcting is 1.3740. This was my weekly target this week but does not look like we get there

Attachment
I fully agree with you. But think that we are not going above 1.37. Actually I think we are in correction already, which might turn into a down move. We have the A and the B of the ABC correction on a 1H chart.
  • #299,190
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:14pm Sep 30, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting TraderAlbi
we're in the middle of nowhere.
I won't touch the "ENTER" button until low 1,37xx. (to short)
My opinion was : we will (should) see a big retracement in the next hours.

But bulls are really strong and it seems that nothing can stop this movement. Big boys are long, i have to admit it.

I live in France and I know that euro is bullshit especially now, but am i the only one ???
You're not the only one...its just a matter of a little time, as a shift in senyiment started yesterday for several reasons yesterday. Add that 3rd quarter is over, QE2 is somewhat fading, riots are getting worse, and EZ would probably like a lower Euro so BMWs can start selling will bring correction sooner than later. It may need to go up to .375X or so to get momentum down IMO.
I admire the Europeans for putting up a fight for their livelyhood.
  • #299,191
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:17pm Sep 30, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting wallander
wtf.. usdchf spread = 11

something is going on............no liquidity in franc. Someone is selling a lot of francs
  • #299,192
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:20pm Sep 30, 2010 4:20pm
I also see a possible H&S on 1H chart with a target if it will become on to 1.35

right shoulder developing right now. if it is the case.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #299,193
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:27pm Sep 30, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
thanks, markus, it's much easier that way. looking at the chart i was looking for something that just wasn't there. with the information given, the requirements wouldn't have been fulfilled. attention is lacking a bit after a day like this.

it still would be easier, if market followed the rules
what i am asking myself now is, if the correction comes to an end soon, and basically we move a level up naming the waves... what does a new "cycle" start with? shouldn't that be the impulsive part?
Yeah, you are right. In this case, we would move out of wave 2 to start wave 3.

That would normally be done with a 5 wave impulse, but it can also start with a leading diagonale. And inside a leading diagonale

But: Wave 1, 3 and 5 of a leading diagonale usually subdivide into zigzags but sometimes appear to be impulses. See page 87-88 of EWP.

That makes it difficult to count and to judge with high confidence.

Maybe we trace out a huge LD right now with wave 1 ending at 1.3574 (a zigzag), now in wave 2.

In a diagonal wave 2 and 4 retrace between 66% and 81% of preceeding wave.


So we could drop right now or get on zigzag more.
  • #299,194
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:28pm Sep 30, 2010 4:28pm
As we are talking about EW (and no offence to anyone that uses ew), I think that it is a complete farce. If a $5,000 computer program keeps recounting waves how the hell can a mere mortal work out wave counts ?

Note how in my posts I mentioned using fib ext and retracements.

For me I am a volume and candle spread trader. I saw weakness in Futures starting Wednesday of this week and will continue to look for more weakness. 1.3500 resistance level and a major one at that has not been tested,

The reality is that waves of price movement are caused by market sentiment ,
wave 1 is when the trend is starting yet no one believes it and by the time the move is underway they missed entry ,
wave 2 designed by pros to make sure that the price comes back on a retracement that all those that missed the initial trend change move can get in on at 50 or 61.8 .
wave 3 , sometimes the longest wave when every is riding the bus and happy to be jumping on board.
wave 4 is when pros start unwinding their positions slightly and drop price to attract the traders that always arrive late to the party and push price up in wave 5....
wave 5 is where you will see high volume up moves that do not break old highs or u low volume moves in the direction of wave 5 as all the pros are getting rid of their positions and establishing ones in the opposite direction and it is only those that like to buys tops ( or sell bottoms) that are driving wave 5 .

ew , fib waves whatever you want to call it.... it is simple market psychology that makes these things works.

is this 15 min chart starts of some form of move down ? maybe a daily reatrcement ?


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Quoting infinitus
Hello Malcolmb,

sometimes when we look at a chart with a great distance (or a high time frame) we can spot "easily" 5 waves or 3 waves.

But it is not easy like that. The waves are fractals. If you count a big wave a five, you have to find the fives in the subwaves.

And it is not easy like that. You have to apply the rules of EWT. And than, when you have a count, you should evaluate it with sentiment or sentiment indicators.

What should I say (no offense intended): Your 5 waves are not an EW 5, no impulse.

But when your tchnice works...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #299,195
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:33pm Sep 30, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting King Kong
hello,u said your target was 1.3740 was that based on the previous resistance?

yes but tons of resistance in this area

there are two channels of play right now

1.3600 to 1.3450
1.3600 to 1.3800
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #299,196
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:41pm Sep 30, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
As we are talking about EW (and no offence to anyone that uses ew), I think that it is a complete farce. If a $5,000 computer program keeps recounting waves how the hell can a mere mortal work out wave counts ?

Note how in my posts I mentioned using fib ext and retracements.

[color=black][font=Verdana]For me I am a volume and candle spread trader. I saw weakness in Futures...


Hi,

computer programs for EW counting are a farce. Forget it.

Recaunting is OK, because we can only count what we see right now and mak an very educated guess what the next move might be.

You have to use EW as your map or timetable or whatsoever. And with this map in your mind you/I has/have a better feeling where the market is headed.

I also use a lot of Fibs, but more Murrey Math. I combine those with Ichimoku.

Never would I relay on one method alone.

And you are very right about market psychology and fibs, MM, EW etc.

On 15min chart I see maybe a Leading diagonal developing right now (with a zigzag as wave 1). But it is to early to judge. And that count would fit into my previous counts. But I don't trade what I believe, I try always to trade what I see.

And right now we likely start a great drop........
  • #299,197
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:41pm Sep 30, 2010 4:41pm
i know that it has nothing to do with e/u - but maybe everyeone, who is interestet in smartphones should see that:

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...crashes-2010-9


btw. the e/u is loosing momentum so i still expect a retrace
Pecunia non olet
  • #299,198
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:43pm Sep 30, 2010 4:43pm
DMA agreed
  • #299,199
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:52pm Sep 30, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Mark

almost perfect 5 wave count and a really clasic ew set ups but I have based on fes and reatrcements ...

MAX eu should go to before correcting is 1.3740. This was my weekly target this week but does not look like we get there

Attachment
wave 5 cant be longer then wave 3 in theory
Number of Days without an idiotic request: 0
  • #299,200
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:53pm Sep 30, 2010 4:53pm
uchf cant get any better long odds @ this level...just sayin..
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
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