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  • #298,961
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:22am Sep 30, 2010 8:22am
Quoting nawafasad1
dont be fooled by the market the top will be 1.3695 if it gets there look to short it
I'm planning to short there too.
  • #298,962
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:23am Sep 30, 2010 8:23am
Quoting EuroTrader
Good news = Low risk = EUR high

You got it slightly backwards, good news means risk-on. The big houses are buying equities to put their money to work, it does them no good holding cash piles. Putting money into equities means selling the cash, that means dollar down euro up.

This is quarter end and we have a bit of window dressing going on at the equity funds, they need to get into the winners so it looks good on the quarterly report, couple that with good employment figures and we have a perfect setup for an equity rally, that means dollar down.

This month has been all about the risk appetite, go look at a es or DOW chart.
  • #298,963
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:23am Sep 30, 2010 8:23am
Quoting nawafasad1
dont be fooled by the market the top will be 1.3695 if it gets there look to short it
not normal market today ...27 billion liquidty coming at 10:15 est to 11 est...

remember the 200 pip friday last week ... that was also pomo ... 200 pip Tuesday this week .... pomo ... and we only moved 120 pip so far ... so chances very high as off 10:15 est eu moves to complete 200 pip day to 1.3750
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #298,964
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:24am Sep 30, 2010 8:24am
Quoting T@rantula
USD news have the most impact on YEN. Good news makes USD rise vs Yen, then retracement is inevitable. Good news have the impact on stock market, futures. Good news for USD boost stockmarkets up, DOW and EUR have a strong correlation.

EUR is one of the most predictable currencies, that makes it the most traded currency. It has been following technicals perfectly.

I have completely ignored the news and took profit again @ 3672.
Thank you so much for explaining that. Very interesting to know!
  • #298,965
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:26am Sep 30, 2010 8:26am
Quoting malcolmb14
not normal market today ...27 billion liquidty coming at 10:15 est to 11 est...

remember the 200 pip friday last week ... that was also pomo ... 200 pip Tuesday this week .... pomo ... and we only moved 120 pip so far ... so chances very high as off 10:15 est eu moves to complete 200 pip day to 1.3750
I am probably gonna look like a idiot asking this. What does POMO stand for?
  • #298,966
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:28am Sep 30, 2010 8:28am
  •  jet4x
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: slow & steady turtle wins the race | 168 Posts
Quoting malcolmb14
not normal market today ...27 billion liquidty coming at 10:15 est to 11 est...

remember the 200 pip friday last week ... that was also pomo ... 200 pip Tuesday this week .... pomo ... and we only moved 120 pip so far ... so chances very high as off 10:15 est eu moves to complete 200 pip day to 1.3750
please provide the link where u see this.....
  • #298,967
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:31am Sep 30, 2010 8:31am
Quoting cloggie
You got it slightly backwards, good news means risk-on. The big houses are buying equities to put their money to work, it does them no good holding cash piles. Putting money into equities means selling the cash, that means dollar down euro up.

This is quarter end and we have a bit of window dressing going on at the equity funds, they need to get into the winners so it looks good on the quarterly report, couple that with good employment figures and we have a perfect setup for an equity rally, that means dollar down.

This month has been...
That's right .
  • #298,968
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:31am Sep 30, 2010 8:31am
Pullback to buy? Some steam lost, but still a good uptrend me thinks
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #298,969
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:31am Sep 30, 2010 8:31am
Quoting trader76
Eurotrader,

why a good news for US $ means long euro? can you please explain....
Good US news generally means that people are willing to be more risky with their investments and therefore sell the $ to buy more riskier assets that bring greater returns. When there is bad news, people generally tend to flock back to the Yen, $ and gold because of risk aversion. The Yen, Dollar and Swissy are considered to be safe havens, but in adverse economic conditions that we have today, this might all change! The market is always evolving!

You will notice this with correlation and inverse correlation between different markets such as for example correlation between Gold and AUDUSD, ES and Copper and many others. Mind you... correlation is never 100%!
  • #298,970
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:36am Sep 30, 2010 8:36am
Cloggie, I am glad to see you posting on this thread. I follow you on the GU thread but I mainly trade EU. I value your thoughts, insights, and opinions. I am a newer trader and only have been trading part time for 3 years. I don't post much on FF but I read what you and others have to say daily to either confirm my thoughts on a direction to trade or to make me second guess myself and rethink things. Again, I just wanted to tell you I hope you post here more often or least continue with your opinions about EU as well as GU when you are posting on the other thread.
  • #298,971
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:38am Sep 30, 2010 8:38am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Pullback to buy? Some steam lost, but still a good uptrend me thinks
bearist today in this last day of september.
I want to believe dont go above 1,37.
I am short today and I used to be wrong a lot of times.
  • #298,972
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:39am Sep 30, 2010 8:39am
Quoting jet4x
please provide the link where u see this.....
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/openmarket.html

They are not going to tell us when and with how much in the purse before hand, but they will post the results here, just a matter of finding their footprint in the markets when they do come out.
  • #298,973
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:39am Sep 30, 2010 8:39am
Quoting bbakker
Like most threads you will find all the information in the 1st post of the thread. Price Action has been superb at collating the information and putting all of the resources in the 1st post, so please work your way through the links in the first post.

Ok..Thank you for the direction.
  • #298,974
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:39am Sep 30, 2010 8:39am
Quoting malcolmb14
not normal market today ...27 billion liquidty coming at 10:15 est to 11 est...

remember the 200 pip friday last week ... that was also pomo ... 200 pip Tuesday this week .... pomo ... and we only moved 120 pip so far ... so chances very high as off 10:15 est eu moves to complete 200 pip day to 1.3750
I forgot about the bond sale today
  • #298,975
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:41am Sep 30, 2010 8:41am
Quoting bbakker
Good US news ...
As Japan doesnt have to borrow abroad, Yen is also a safe heaven currency.
  • #298,976
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:42am Sep 30, 2010 8:42am
Quoting bbakker
I forgot about the bond sale today

It is not a bond sale, it is the outright purchase of TIPS and coupons on the market directly to "steer" the prices.
  • #298,977
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:45am Sep 30, 2010 8:45am
Quoting cloggie
It is not a bond sale, it is the outright purchase of TIPS and coupons on the market directly to "steer" the prices.
For anyone interested -

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp

So they are buying, not selling then!?
  • #298,978
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:49am Sep 30, 2010 8:49am
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
nice break
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  • #298,979
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:50am Sep 30, 2010 8:50am
very tricky this month end, very tricky indeed, look at GU
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #298,980
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:50am Sep 30, 2010 8:50am
wow engulfing depends on closing hmm........
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