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  • #298,881
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:33am Sep 30, 2010 6:33am
Guys do you think this is the last 5th wave we are looking at?
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  • #298,882
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:33am Sep 30, 2010 6:33am
If you want to contrarian trade, I just had my stop loss way to tight. UGH
for a no name like me, the 5min and 15min isn't really in lock step.
i had a trendline support on the 5, it just blew past that too.
I guess I sit and stare untiil the 3615ish area again....
  • #298,883
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:34am Sep 30, 2010 6:34am
Quoting zaphy
Can you give concrete examples, you consider as 'messing'? The reason I am asking is that my impression at that time was that nobody really knew what the solutions should be, or what their outcome would be like. Meaning all of the central bankers were on unchartered territory..economic theories could only state what they expected, but there has never been a proof or empirical evidence for those theories.
well, you could have asked any german 10-year-old, and he would have told you. "we pay" would have been the answer. that's an historically educated behaviour over here. there will never ever be an answer like "we don't care, it's not our fault, so deal with it yourselves."

long uc closed.
  • #298,884
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:35am Sep 30, 2010 6:35am
Quoting pres78
This pull back will give a good place to reset some longs... what levels are people eyeing ATM?
Depends what timeframe you work off, but of the h4, I see 1.3560.
  • #298,885
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:36am Sep 30, 2010 6:36am
Quoting svet_an
Guys do you think this is the last 5th wave we are looking at?
With a weekly supply zone just above, it could well be!
  • #298,886
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:37am Sep 30, 2010 6:37am
Quoting pres78
So the EZ news came out bad but better than expected on the Irish bank front both in loans and rating. It appears than barring some kind of complete cancellation speech for QE2 by Bernanke and jobless number cut in half we will take out 1.37 today and possibly 1.38 this week. I don't know what it will take to reverse this uptrend as EZ news at the moment even when not so great doesnt have much effect.
But the Irish banks are still fooked however you dress up the numbers!
  • #298,887
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:40am Sep 30, 2010 6:40am
Quoting bbakker
With a weekly supply zone just above, it could well be!
ah, there you are. thank you very much for the link. i am currently downloading the videos.
  • #298,888
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:40am Sep 30, 2010 6:40am
Quoting zaphy
Can you give concrete examples, you consider as 'messing'? The reason I am asking is that my impression at that time was that nobody really knew what the solutions should be, or what their outcome would be like. Meaning all of the central bankers were on unchartered territory..economic theories could only state what they expected, but there has never been a proof or empirical evidence for those theories.
Trichet would announce once or sometimes twice a week that plans were agreed to and in place to correct Greeces problems. This went on for months. Everytime he would speak, PA would rebound, only to find (and later be documented the articles were posted here just this week) that he was just buying time.
  • #298,889
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:41am Sep 30, 2010 6:41am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Seems like a deeper pullback is coming now...
Weekly supply zones will take some serious buying to get through! I am not saying we are going to see 1.19 again, but we will see some correction from here.
  • #298,890
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:44am Sep 30, 2010 6:44am
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/gl...ogkwt3d1yt.gif
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #298,891
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:47am Sep 30, 2010 6:47am
I am off for my belated birthday coffee that my Isobel promised me, who is the office manager at my work! I wish you all a great afternoon, morning or evening depending where you are
  • #298,892
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:47am Sep 30, 2010 6:47am
watch this level as correction may be over
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  • #298,893
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:49am Sep 30, 2010 6:49am
Quoting Mr Hatch
well, you could have asked any german 10-year-old, and he would have told you. "we pay" would have been the answer. that's an historically educated behaviour over here. there will never ever be an answer like "we don't care, it's not our fault, so deal with it yourselves."
Would the german 10 year old have told me "we pay", "we export", "we do mergers and acquisitions with firms short of cash", "we produce great dividends to our shareholders through expansion, no taxes"? I guess if you enter a union (be that marriage or economic and Germany was and is one of the main promoters of the idea), you expect good times and bad ones. Especially, if you enter a union with an entity 'weaker' then you. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Germans don't have the right to grumble...anyone would if the honeymoon suddenly ends with a massive bill .

Personally, I have a very high respect for Germany, for example, bailing out Greece: I don't have that historically educated behaviour and I would have told them to bu**ger off and sell an island or two to the Chinese: if you allow your state workers to retire at the age of 53, swap landing fees with investment banks to 'satisfy' the criteria to get in the union and so on.
  • #298,894
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:49am Sep 30, 2010 6:49am
Quoting Mr Hatch
ah, there you are. thank you very much for the link. i am currently downloading the videos.
My pleasure! Sam Seiden is a great instructor on supply and demand!
  • #298,895
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:50am Sep 30, 2010 6:50am
Quoting Mr Hatch
well, you could have asked any german 10-year-old, and he would have told you. "we pay" would have been the answer. that's an historically educated behaviour over here. there will never ever be an answer like "we don't care, it's not our fault, so deal with it yourselves."

long uc closed.
mood will change...and we all know what happend wehen "the germans" in a bad mood...

PittBull
  • #298,896
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:54am Sep 30, 2010 6:54am
Quoting Redeemed1
Trichet would announce once or sometimes twice a week that plans were agreed to and in place to correct Greeces problems. This went on for months. Everytime he would speak, PA would rebound, only to find (and later be documented the articles were posted here just this week) that he was just buying time.
Sure. Merkel didn't want to lose the (local?) elections. And with respect to Trichet, sometimes when you hesitate the problem goes away by itself or you gain more insight. Remember that the Greeks weren't exactly forthcoming in how bad the problems were/are (or maybe I should add will be)????

I feel somewhat weird 'defending' Trichet.
  • #298,897
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:54am Sep 30, 2010 6:54am
Quoting Pitt Bull
mood will change...and we all know what happend wehen "the germans" in a bad mood...

PittBull
i know what you are referring to, but you are mislead. the germans of that era were far away from being in a bad mood.
  • #298,898
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:55am Sep 30, 2010 6:55am
Quoting bbakker
I am off for my belated birthday coffee that my Isobel promised me, who is the office manager at my work! I wish you all a great afternoon, morning or evening depending where you are
Well happy B'day then mate
Enter Signature
  • #298,899
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:59am Sep 30, 2010 6:59am
Quoting zaphy
Would the german 10 year old have told me "we pay", "we export", "we do mergers and acquisitions with firms short of cash", "we produce great dividends to our shareholders through expansion, no taxes"? I guess if you enter a union (be that marriage or economic and Germany was and is one of the main promoters of the idea), you expect good times and bad ones. Especially, if you enter a union with an entity 'weaker' then you. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Germans don't have the right to grumble...anyone would if the honeymoon suddenly...
don't you think you are asking a bit too much from a 10-year-old?

last passage: from our point of view, greece was the last country that understood the art of living. no one will openly admit it, but that's the case. the german citizen gives a fuck for the ez, because this whole generation has been fucked unwillingly, but as you know, germans do what they're told to do... and recently they also start to think what they are told to think.
  • #298,900
  • Sep 30, 2010 7:00am Sep 30, 2010 7:00am
Exiting 1st intraday target before reports. I was waiting to reply to your post. I think last price action reflects my way of trading and I hope it shows you my point of view on fundamentals and especially to make my argument to the discussion we were having before:

My comment

Quoting sisse
In my book this week move up is done. Reports in the afternoon should trigger the top. Spain downgraded again, Ireland Anglo Irish Bank bailout more expensive than expected, spreads EZ trouble countries - Germany in all time highs. Taking profits on the exhaustion move up and daily swing high. In my case, time to stay aside daily up and short intraday in the daily highs.

sisse

your reply

Quoting yaed
....I mean if you sit all day hunting for reports, scouring the net for any little piece of info, by the time you incorporate that into youre analysis, things have already happend....
And after

Quoting yaed
Somebody bought a couple of million euro, or bought a couple of million E/U [euro @ 1.3660]. Why? You have to look at theyre technical analysis, since none of us work at that place, fat chance.
My Reply

Quoting sisse

IMO, is not buying but selling [euro @ 1.3670]

sisse
In any case, lets agree that there is not right or wrong approach for trading and trading with fundamentals is not the exception to this rule. Best of luck

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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