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  • #298,421
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:18pm Sep 29, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting pres78
Are you referring to the NFP? or the unemployment claims on Thursday next week? Do you have a particular pullback value in mind for reloading some longs?

I agree for the USD it all comes down to whether QE2 will or will not happen.
Momentum is really strong for EUR vs USD.

So not to miss the bull run.

1.35 area
also 1.33 area if we somehow get there.

yes but there is no point on getting details because we also have the ISM next week so need to stay focus into future yet get each day by itself.

a correction is at this point common sense but since a lot of trading is algo now. you don't get correction like old days.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #298,422
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:20pm Sep 29, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting pres78
Does this have any effect on the US currency?
well this is a very complex subject which if history is a guide leads to trade wars which i really doubt can be good for US. but thats more talking for now since no action has been taken yet.

it is something to follow
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #298,423
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:20pm Sep 29, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Momentum is really strong for EUR vs USD.

So not to miss the bull run.

1.35 area
also 1.33 area if we somehow get there.

yes but there is no point on getting details because we also have the ISM next week so need to stay focus into future yet get each day by itself.

a correction is at this point common sense but since a lot of trading is algo now. you don't get correction like old days.
Very true... thanks for taking the time to reply.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #298,424
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:21pm Sep 29, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting pres78
Does this have any effect on the US currency?
there is a good article here. i don't know if the article is free since i have subscription.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #298,425
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:23pm Sep 29, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting The Fool
Yeah. The market is all-knowing. When a class 5 hurricane starts pointing at the oil patch in the Gulf of Mexico and the price of oil goes up, the obvious cause and effect relationship there is that the market caused the hurricane.

You're missing my point. When I say "news follows the markets," I'm referring to the media hand picking what information they want to focus on. Look on your charts from December 2009 to June 2010. During this time eu/usd was trending down. What was the news media focusing on during this time? The EU debt crises: all the banks were going to fail, debt downgrades, riots, Greece default etc. Now focus on June 2010 to August 2010. Shortly after this trend shift, focus shifted from the EU to the US. Where as you could previously turn on the TV at any time of day and hear mention of EU doom and gloom, now you have to do a bit of digging. Do you recall how the markets would react to European debt downgrades during this bearish trend? We would see 100 or more pip movements in a matter of minutes. During this time it didn't matter what news came out of US, they would spin it as dollar positive. Any negative US economic news would be fuel for risk aversion and a move out of risky assets and into dollars. Any positive US economic news and people would buy dollars because US economy is strengthening and Europe is struggling. This is the same thing that is happening right now only in favor of the euro. Dollar negative news is on the front page while euro negative news is put on the back burner. During this recent euro bull move we have had European debt downgrades, riots, the BS stress test and the market didn't even flinch. Then reports of a Greek bond auction that doesn't completely fail come in and the euro gains 300 pips against the dollar in a day. My point is that the markets have a mind of their own that often times completely disregards logic. Take your hurricane example. If a hurricane is moving toward the gulf and the price of oil goes up, it will be attributed to the hurricane. If under the same scenario, the price of oil does not react (barring any additional information that could be used to explain an offset in the potential increase in oil price caused by the hurricane), the hurricane's effect on the price of oil will be disregarded. This may sound like I'm stating the obvious, but I don't believe most people view the markets this way. Occasionally people attempting to predict market reaction to news will make money but it is dumb luck. If markets are behaving on their own and news is simply used by media to plug the holes, then their is nothing to predict with regards to the news. Large traders are aware of the effects their market moving actions have on the media and use this to their advantage. In essence, if you control the markets you control the news.

Edit: Thumbs up to anybody who actually reads all this. I got a bit carried away and failed to realize what an obnoxious wall of text I had conjured up.
  • #298,426
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:25pm Sep 29, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
i got a baby bear that goes to 3564 with the mid at 36039.. atm its working.. w/o a hew high we go there.
invalid since we have a new high... the rest of post still valid. we missed 3648 atm by 1.7 pips. charts included have bull chart as marked. and unmarked bear chart.. both have key levels the same place.. #1 baby bear ends at the top charts center mofu.. so use indis..if we dont bounce there i would lean toward the bear.. we should bounce shortly below if bear. then look for lower resumption. clues will be if the bigger chart colored blue levels are respected.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #298,427
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:28pm Sep 29, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting Awesome
You're missing my point....
100% right.

just to add something. there were people marching in Europe protesting to new austerity measures. Police in the streets. Who cares.
We are all brainwash to have Q.E. in our heads

and one day here we go again...
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #298,428
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:34pm Sep 29, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting DMA Trader
there is a good article here. i don't know if the article is free since i have subscription.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories
That's great thanks. That sounds like it could go either way depending on China and how they react. They could try and weaken the US further or I suppose they could even try and strengthen the US currency while the US is trying to weaken it? I could however be way off base as I am still trying to understand the whole fundmental side of trading.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #298,429
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:34pm Sep 29, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting pres78
And do you have any other bears? I took a short off the 4hr chart 3 candles ago at 1.3640 targetting 1.3550 but I don't know if it will ever have the strength to get there. Trying to decide the best target and where to get out. I am worried about potential spikes over night that could wipe out my profit (SL is at BE right now). May just let it run and cross my fingers. Won't cost me anything to let it ride. Vert indecisive ATM.
close half.. let the rest run is a thought... the blue chart has a target..i would have rather-ed hit 3648.. this is st.. and the trend is up.. be safe..dpp is 3613.. but we stopped and turned before.. pa said #1 baby bear complete is why. we normally hit dpp.. i don see why we don't the next pass.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #298,430
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:37pm Sep 29, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
close half.. let the rest run is a thought... the blue chart has a target..i would have rather-ed hit 3648.. this is st.. and the trend is up.. be safe..
Yeah that's what I decided to do the rest will either hit my longshot target or I will get stopped out at BE.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #298,431
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:37pm Sep 29, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting pres78
That's great thanks. That sounds like it could go either way depending on China and how they react. They could try and weaken the US further or I suppose they could even try and strengthen the US currency while the US is trying to weaken it? I could however be way off base as I am still trying to understand the whole fundmental side of trading.
the key problem is election.
while bernanke and geithner didn't do much because they know what's at stake.
congressman need votes obama too. china also has some sort of election.

so for now i would say that is more talking than action.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #298,432
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:44pm Sep 29, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Awesome
Edit: Thumbs up to anybody who actually reads all this. I got a bit carried away and failed to realize what an obnoxious wall of text I had conjured up.
didn't read it, sorry, tired of the topic
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #298,433
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:44pm Sep 29, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Awesome
You're missing my point....
Media is spin, media is newspeak, media is a tool to put youre message out there. Anybody can pay to get theyre thing out there. So all we can really learn from what goes on i the media is what news somebody is buying, what things somebody wants people to think.

35 years ago it would be an absurd idea to actually print serious newspapers about what celebrity has an eating disorder, have broken up with who or what drugs they are shooting up theyre arm, to the extent that it is being done today.

From where im looking (M1) all moves is not effect of media, thats impossible, but i understand what you are saying, "In essence, if you control the markets you control the news." But a pre calculated amount of time before and after orange and red news here at FF, im not in the game, its not really worth it since i never try to follow the trend. It is very perplexing why people even pay attention to media, but they do as we know.

To go further: News is a means and a integral way of seizing the power to control markets, if you want to assert the effect x on the market, you report on the news nx, if you want the reverse effect y you report the news ny. Maybe there are some "truth" behind news, and on the other hand maybe those events that surface are controlled, which ever is the case, i stay the hell out of news.

Have a look at the russians, they are reporting on massive riots in major european cities for an example.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #298,434
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:44pm Sep 29, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Awesome
You're missing my point. When I say "news follows the markets," I'm referring to the media hand picking what information they want to focus on. Look on your charts from December 2009 to June 2010. During this time eu/usd was trending down. What was the news media focusing on during this time? The EU debt crises: all the banks were going to fail, debt downgrades, riots, Greece default etc. Now focus on June 2010 to August 2010. Shortly after this trend shift, focus shifted from the EU to the US. Where as you could previously turn on the TV at any...

It's all good, thanks for sharing

Alex
If only I knew then what I know now...
  • #298,435
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:54pm Sep 29, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
invalid since we have a new high... the rest of post still valid. we missed 3648 atm by 1.7 pips. charts included have bull chart as marked. and unmarked bear chart.. both have key levels the same place.. #1 baby bear ends at the top charts center mofu.. so use indis..if we dont bounce there i would lean toward the bear.. we should bounce shortly below if bear. then look for lower resumption. clues will be if the bigger chart colored blue levels are respected.
cub wants to play so far..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #298,436
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:54pm Sep 29, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting vinesh2
[...]I think EURO is stretched out extremely and needs a healthy correction.
Keltner Channels (10) on daily chart: the pair is trading outside the channel for two weeks and almost 700 pips. This is already quite extreme and it shouldn't last too long before the price comes back into the channel. If it happens to retrace now up to the channel's opposite side, target would be 1.3234.
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Don't just be a sheep : make your own idea of it.
  • #298,437
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:05pm Sep 29, 2010 6:05pm
http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...n-it-fall.aspx

Interesting article. Sounds like the non posted news could have more effect than the posted stuff.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #298,438
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:06pm Sep 29, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
cub wants to play so far..
do you think we will hit 3650 by asian open?????
  • #298,439
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:14pm Sep 29, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting digictron
do you think we will hit 3650 by asian open?????
dono,, i dont time trades.. it keeps me out of trouble
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #298,440
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:21pm Sep 29, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting mfoste1
house passed bill on china fx issue
Hi, there.. See that's why I think this is planned FED devaluation

of $USD. I mean, how you can press Chinese to actually strenght

their currency, while FED doing exactly the same Thing (currency manipulation) ???

Just knocking Dollar down to shrink

US Debt at almost (0%) interest rates at expense of mainly Chinese

and Japanese. That's why they get mad, as China one of the Biggest

US DEBT holder, basically you cannot devaluate Debt too much without

Chinese popping up their Currency to cooperate..

But why anyone would do that?

US should be more careful with their biggest debtors..

So? Question remains, Who are those Biggest Currency Manipulators???

Look at the chart to find out.

P.S

I'm pretty much sure tomorrow those claims (news) going to be suck as

usual

And EUR will go higher 1.38? We'll see..
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