EURUSD

just to talk some funndies.

if job news is good that means less chance for Q.E. 2
so should be very interesting.

3675-85 Nice resistance areas on the monthly and weekly. In addition, End of quarter profit taking, and the sign that it is near is yesterday's S&P daily wick. Looking for a last pump then dump as Gator would say. europe session should be interesting!



P.S If I'm wrong, not a problem I still have 90% of the rest of the traders to sob with

Yeap, that's what I mean.. So traders will probably take a

break, take some profit for now and see what happens 8:30 and then jump

on the train again. Which side? We'll see tomorrow.

Hey dude,

did you ever read that according to Elliotts Wave Theory wave 4 should not go lower than wave's 1 peak etc?

These are not waves 1-5, more of a-b-c-d-e-x

What time frame is that chart you posted there? I'm gonna catch the beak on that wedge!

Morning all!

Roughed Up By The Fed
By NICHOLAS HASTINGS
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


LONDON -- The dollar faces a rough time ahead.
How rough, depends on the Fed.
The simple issue is this: more quantitative easing in the U.S. means lower U.S. yields and a less attractive dollar as far as international investors are concerned.
Up until the last week or so, there were still some vestiges of hope that more quantitative easing, or QEII as it has been dubbed, could be avoided.
See how the dollar has been under pressure against euro in recent weeks:
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/w...RichMedia/4645Click Image to Enlarge
Confirmation that quantitative easing was coming to an end would have been dollar-positive, helping the U.S. currency to resume the rally that seemed to be underway at one stage this summer.
But now, as more negative U.S. economic data stacks up and concern over the global recovery in general increases, QEII looks much more likely to reign.
The thing is, as the Wall Street Journal report pointed out this week, there is QEII and there is QEII Lite.
QEII would be very much like the heavy-handed exercise conducted in March 2009 when the Federal Reserve announced a $1.7 trillion bond buy-back program aimed at shocking financial markets back into life.
The program was partially effective, helping the U.S. economy out of recession and boosting the country's labor market.
However, the exercise was not enough.
U.S. growth is on the slide again and deflation, rather than inflation, appears to be the primary risk.
But, as the WSJ report pointed out, this time around the Fed may want to take a more sophisticated and gradual approach, in which the bond buy-backs would be more closely aligned to the pace of the recovery.
This would mean, of course, that the program is open-ended and could continue for some time as the Fed attempts to trigger inflationary pressures.
By easing market liquidity even further, the U.S. central bank should be able to kick-start the economy and avoid a double-dip recession.
For the dollar, though, there should be less downside to this approach.
QE II Lite should ensure that U.S. yields don't decline as far as they might have fallen under a dose of QEII proper.
Also, the exercise should help to increase the Fed's market credibility.
Not only would the central bank's more step-by-step approach, tied to the release of new U.S. economic data, boost market confidence but it also means that the Fed should be better-placed to exit quantitative easing more promptly if inflation pressures started to rise sooner than expected.
For the dollar, the best news would be that QE was being abandoned altogether. But, if the U.S. currency is going to have face more easing anyway, then it looks like QEII Lite rather than QEII as we knew it of old would be the lesser of the two evils.
The release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data late Tuesday has left sentiment towards the dollar flagging. By 0645 GMT Wednesday, the dollar had fallen to Y83.60 from Y83.89 late on Tuesday in New York, according to EBS.
The yen got some help from a stronger than expected Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan as well as a rise in the latest Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' survey to a five-month high.
The euro was left floundering as investors remain nervous about the sovereign-debt crisis after Irish bond yields surged to a new record high on Tuesday.
However, it did find support from suggestions that the European Central Bank won't be extending its liquidity measures.
The single currency was up at $1.3622 from $1.3590 but down at Y113.78 from Y114.00.
Bloomberg TNI FRX POV
Reuters


free 24 hr link
http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/al?rnd=...k9TIUbGQ%3D%3D

H4. remeber you can allways click and enlarge the image for details.

agreed vinesh......everyone has been buying this pair since the 11th with little correction. Its the end of the month/quarter there will be profit taking.

So are most of you waiting to reload some longs at a certain level? Or are most of you waiting for the US unemployemnt numbers and subsequant Bernanke Speeches? Now I know that news doesn't change market direction and will just cause a spike that will either correct itself or signal continuation of the current trend but as some point something has to break either sending EUR to the moon or causing some actual down moves in the pair. At some point this pair will turn back down either through improved US economic data, excessive EZ weakness or people jumping back on board the safety of the US dollar (getting less likely). This pair appears to be sitting on the edge and could go either way in this battle of who is truly weaker.

I hope so. But right now, it does not want to go downside, even for 10 pips.....

i thought that was him too! hahahaha, I almost reported it to twee as a multiple username lol

Yes I would actually feel better if this pair would make a real adjustment downwards before continuing up. The longs for me are getting more nervewracking as everything just seems so exhausted about this move it... I just don't know how it has kept going so long with any real rest.

#1 bear completes at 36189

I would wait for a pull back. or play a breakout as soon as 1.365 is clear.
But I favor a pullback.

Also hard to know what the numbers will do tomorrow. I think no trend is changed based on tomorrow data. Also the data could give some light on next week jobs data which could make expectation raise from currently 75k (Reuters of o remember correct) to over 100k. which would be bullish so less need for Q.E.

I think the tomorrow data need to be seen in the context of Q.E. or not Q.E. and not by the usual wisdom of good number good economy long dollar.

So waiting for a pullback seems today to bee a good R/R. of course it also depends on your timeframe.

house passed bill on china fx issue

very good count and it might work alright . but what i think that we r still in correction and we ll see a h h than the top what we had before any major correction . this wave right now is e and it could finish at 1.36 . from there last leg to the upside will go to 1.3675 area to finish wave 3 major correction from there to form w4. the count should take the time that waves take compared to each pther and not just the price

NYT NEWS ALERT: House Passes Bill to Pressure China on Currency Value

And do you have any other bears? I took a short off the 4hr chart 3 candles ago at 1.3640 targetting 1.3550 but I don't know if it will ever have the strength to get there. Trying to decide the best target and where to get out. I am worried about potential spikes over night that could wipe out my profit (SL is at BE right now). May just let it run and cross my fingers. Won't cost me anything to let it ride. Vert indecisive ATM.

Are you referring to the NFP? or the unemployment claims on Thursday next week? Do you have a particular pullback value in mind for reloading some longs?

I agree for the USD it all comes down to whether QE2 will or will not happen.

Does this have any effect on the US currency?