USD/JPY Discussion | Page 959 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,161
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:22pm Sep 28, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting dfptommyj
well I think that these days positive data that can move equties up will move yen crosses north, especialy now after intervention of boj
and what I also speculate is no matter what the data they will try to sell yen anyway
  • #19,162
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:05pm Sep 28, 2010 11:05pm
BOJ is nothing so cant do anything.
If you dont want to lose more close your longs.
  • #19,163
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:17pm Sep 28, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting uptrendup
BOJ is nothing so cant do anything.
If you dont want to lose more close your longs.
I agree .. they got nothing.

Intervention will not work unless all banks work together. BOJ has never had much success at intervention on its own
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,164
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:19pm Sep 28, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting uptrendup
BOJ is nothing so cant do anything.
If you dont want to lose more close your longs.
Wrong on so many levels....
  • #19,165
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:20pm Sep 28, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting uptrendup
BOJ is nothing so cant do anything.
If you dont want to lose more close your longs.
Even if one has longs in the yen crosses open, as long as your money management can handle them, you should be OK to await BoJ.

Personally I would not be in yen cross longs solely for this matter and certainly not in UJ. There's no issue placing buy stops 40+ pips above current PA, above S/R, & platform alarms just before the buy stop, and checking it regularly or monitoring from a mobile device. When BoJ arrives, they are likely to cause a very quick initial pop of 100 pips - that's what happened on Sept 15.

Don't underestimate BoJ. They are likely not intervening yet because they got their wrists slapped; there must be some coordination or triggers that all other CBs are in on and BoJ has agreed to act on their terms.

It's just a matter of being patient, and trading normally in the meantime, with proper SLs on yen cross shorts.

I really could care less about the success of their intervention long term - in fact I don't see it working, except for buying time. But riding up a few hundred pips after I have loaded up the truck, is what we are really after.
  • #19,166
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:28pm Sep 28, 2010 11:28pm
it drop to 83.xx again. if this reach to 82.xx again then BOJ just throwing money without any result. those who take long just make sure to use money management. since anything can happen now and have a nice trade......
  • #19,167
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:48pm Sep 28, 2010 11:48pm
As soon as it breaks new yorks low im jumping in heavy long.


Quoting dfptommyj
Im gonna hold this buy order @ 84.00, have a feeling it'll jump north again... stop below NY's low
  • #19,168
  • Edited Sep 29, 2010 12:03am Sep 28, 2010 11:53pm | Edited Sep 29, 2010 12:03am
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
Quoting dfptommyj
hi, may I ask wich broker has dxy on mt4 as you are showing on your pics and also what are these nice S/R clouds? thank you
charts are from Admiral Markets with modificated Bands /custom indicator/ from MT4
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 1.tpl   6 KB | 271 downloads
File Type: mq4 Bands-V2.mq4   4 KB | 324 downloads
File Type: mq4 BBands_Zone.mq4   4 KB | 344 downloads
  • #19,169
  • Sep 29, 2010 12:44am Sep 29, 2010 12:44am
Quoting uptrendup
BOJ is nothing so cant do anything.
If you dont want to lose more close your longs.
BOJ has more money than a bull can shit.....make no mistake about that. The recent intervention was a stop-gap measure to keep the Yen from further gains at 83/dollar....they had little choice but to do that, and the cost of doing it is no big deal......if you think it is, look at their current account suplus.

With the scheduled BOJ & Govt talks coming on the 4th & 5th of Oct, a co-ordinated response is quite likely. Even without other central banks partaking, boj+govt can intervene with enough force to scare away some of these speculators who keep buying the Yen in the mistaken belief that it is a 'safe' currency.

The increasing strength of the Yen will cripple Japans economic recovery, and the strength of the Yen is misguided due to the shocking state of their economy......and the more these speculators buy the Yen, the worse they will make things for Japan, and consequently the worse the economy will become.....until there is a huge crash in the Yen.....and the speculators will get burnt BIG time.

The more these muppets flock to the Yen, the more unsafe thay will make their investment. To buy the Yen as a safe currency is stupid. People are doing it because they always have done so. Those same people need to look at the bigger picture......do they want their investment in the Yen to nose dive? Of course not......but by doing what they have always done, they will cause exactly that to happen....for certain.

Think McFly....think!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,170
  • Sep 29, 2010 12:54am Sep 29, 2010 12:54am
Quoting realjumper
BOJ has more money than a bull can shit.....make no mistake about that. The recent intervention was a stop-gap measure to keep the Yen from further gains at 83/dollar....they had little choice but to do that, and the cost of doing it is no big deal......if you think it is, look at their current account suplus.

With the scheduled BOJ & Govt talks coming on the 4th & 5th of Oct, a co-ordinated response is quite likely. Even without other central banks partaking, boj+govt can intervene with enough force to scare away some of these speculators who...
Biff never ends up winning even though he thinks hes always right, even when he knows the future

I'm not a speculator I don't have any positions but I wouldn't doubt there are people who will NOT have their investment go up in smoke when the Yen nose dives because of shorter leashes on stoplosses... Seems like a one way ticket to profit if you ask me.

The only way to change a trend is gradually... similar to what the new QE is planning to do. When you know it is coming... its better off NOT being a surprise.

Market will do what is right... 3.5 trillion a day says so. and BOJ can't stop it.
  • #19,171
  • Sep 29, 2010 12:57am Sep 29, 2010 12:57am
ok i'll start the buying at current price 83.66 help lil ol japan out.


Quoting mofuniverse
As soon as it breaks new yorks low im jumping in heavy long.
  • #19,172
  • Sep 29, 2010 1:00am Sep 29, 2010 1:00am
Quoting sidhujag
Biff never ends up winning even though he thinks hes always right, even when he knows the future

I'm not a speculator I don't have any positions but I wouldn't doubt there are people who will NOT have their investment go up in smoke when the Yen nose dives because of shorter leashes on stoplosses... Seems like a one way ticket to profit if you ask me.

The only way to change a trend is gradually... similar to what the new QE is planning to do. When you know it is coming... its better off NOT being a surprise.

Market will do what is right......
Japan will do what's right.....and that is to survive. Ever seen a cornered rat fight?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,173
  • Sep 29, 2010 1:10am Sep 29, 2010 1:10am
May i ask what would be a good entry
who raped silver !
  • #19,174
  • Sep 29, 2010 1:16am Sep 29, 2010 1:16am
Quoting sidhujag
Biff never ends up winning even though he thinks hes always right, even when he knows the future

I'm not a speculator I don't have any positions but I wouldn't doubt there are people who will NOT have their investment go up in smoke when the Yen nose dives because of shorter leashes on stoplosses... Seems like a one way ticket to profit if you ask me.

The only way to change a trend is gradually... similar to what the new QE is planning to do. When you know it is coming... its better off NOT being a surprise.

Market will do what is right......
Sadly, you underestimate the power the BOJ has. Not much Central Banks can turn the world's financial system on it's head with menial actions or just a few words.

Wanna see a frolic? All the BOJ has to say is "We're considering raising rates..."

Oh what a day that'd be.
  • #19,175
  • Sep 29, 2010 1:26am Sep 29, 2010 1:26am
Quoting realjumper
Japan will do what's right.....and that is to survive. Ever seen a cornered rat fight?
Hmm, to your previous post. While your right, the stronger yen will dampen exports considerably, I do believe in adaptation.... and maybe, just maybe (in the short term at least) Exporters are learning to cope with a stronger currency.

A tough transition but a transition nonetheless

Besides, billions are billions and that's a great deal of money, I suppose the BOJ has seen the ineptitude of just giving it away to the Retail crowd (lemmings) and the Demon hedge fund crowd looking for a quick buck by directly intervening in the market itself.

I doubt the BOJ envision themselves as being a charity organization that literally gives away billions of dollars when the yen strengthen's a few hundred pips.

My stance is let the markets run their course, ya kno - hunt the stops of the more lucrative side, weed out the lemmings looking to make a million on the way up, the lemmings thinking that it must go back to 90 and they will be there to brag about it.... those kind.

and above all, THE CARRY TRADERS


my blah blah
.
  • #19,176
  • Sep 29, 2010 1:39am Sep 29, 2010 1:39am
Quoting Warwick
Hmm, to your previous post. While your right, the stronger yen will dampen exports considerably, I do believe in adaptation.... and maybe, just maybe (in the short term at least) Exporters are learning to cope with a stronger currency.

A tough transition but a transition nonetheless

Besides, billions are billions and that's a great deal of money, I suppose the BOJ has seen the ineptitude of just giving it away to the Retail crowd (lemmings) and the Demon hedge fund crowd looking for a quick buck by directly...
But there comes a point....and it's getting close.....that it will cripple a company (read Cannon, Toyota etc) to the point where they lose market share to their competitors...ie China, Korea etc. If those companies fail...goodbye income to Japan's coffers. No income.....more unemployment....v= downhill spiral!!

It's not a matter of coping with a stronger currency, it's a matter of survival, even more so when you consider their deflation problems, debt running at 260% of gdp (Greece was only 160%), aging population, rising unemployment, shrinking markets (due to competition from China where labour costs are a joke), and to compound the problems, an ever stronger currency.

I just cannot see Japan sitting back and saying 'strong yen....lost market share, goodbye economic recovery....oh well, shit hapens'. Moreso when it has a huge current account with which they need to do something to survive.

How Japan ever got into this much shit is just amazing.....nevertheless, here they are. Now, what are they going to do about it? Let it run it's course? I doubt it.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,177
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:57am Sep 29, 2010 2:57am
  •  Megara
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: MOMENTUM'S THE GODFATHER OF TRADING | 759 Posts
Japanese session will be closed in another few minutes. No action from BOJ.
Oh! Lord BOJ
Never mind. There shall be another tomorrow.

Meg
Shake it off!Lick the Wound,Prey Again!
  • #19,178
  • Sep 29, 2010 3:29am Sep 29, 2010 3:29am
Quoting realjumper
But there comes a point....and it's getting close.....that it will cripple a company (read Cannon, Toyota etc) to the point where they lose market share to their competitors...ie China, Korea etc. If those companies fail...goodbye income to Japan's coffers. No income.....more unemployment....v= downhill spiral!!

It's not a matter of coping with a stronger currency, it's a matter of survival, even more so when you consider their deflation problems, debt running at 260% of gdp (Greece was only 160%), aging population, rising unemployment, shrinking...
a weaker yen is for sure it just the matter of time, even if the BOJ is not thinking about intervention. lucky the BOJ have enough money to intervene, now it just the matter of timing, without the BOJ intervention then many japan companies will suffer, and it end with more unemployement. less profit for many companies and lower bought for many family, this would also bring the yen weaker. i allready see the BOJ account report and it have many surplus.... i hope i read it right. now the question is will Japan let the yen weaker by naturally and sacrifice big companies or simply jump to the market and save many people by intervention...... what do you think guys?
  • #19,179
  • Sep 29, 2010 3:39am Sep 29, 2010 3:39am
Quoting yeri
a weaker yen is for sure it just the matter of time, even if the BOJ is not thinking about intervention. lucky the BOJ have enough money to intervene, now it just the matter of timing, without the BOJ intervention then many japan companies will suffer, and it end with more unemployement. less profit for many companies and lower bought for many family, this would also bring the yen weaker. i allready see the BOJ account report and it have many surplus.... i hope i read it right. now the question is will Japan let the yen weaker by naturally and sacrifice...
yes, I don't understand whay they buy yen as safe currency
but last uj move more made by weak dollar
BoJ
  • #19,180
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:04am Sep 29, 2010 4:04am
Quoting yeri
a weaker yen is for sure it just the matter of time, even if the BOJ is not thinking about intervention. lucky the BOJ have enough money to intervene, now it just the matter of timing, without the BOJ intervention then many japan companies will suffer, and it end with more unemployement. less profit for many companies and lower bought for many family, this would also bring the yen weaker. i allready see the BOJ account report and it have many surplus.... i hope i read it right. now the question is will Japan let the yen weaker by naturally and sacrifice...
Well, how do you think it seem to the people of Japan, the workers, if they lose their jobs because their companies go into receivership because they can no longer pay their creditors? In other words, the company fails because it cannot service it's debt. By not servicing it's debt, I mean it can no long buy the raw materials (from overseas) that it needs to continue manufacturing, and hundreds if not thousands lose their jobs because the company is no longer viable. Why is it not viable? Because it can no longer sell it's end product because it is too expensive in the face of it's competitors.

So, long story short: The company fails. Thousands lose their jobs. All the while they know that their govt & BOJ did not do everything in it's power to avert this. Why didn't they? Because the govt & BOJ preferred to let the Yen top out naturally. So, the govt and BOJ sat on it's ass counting it's current account surplus, and deliberately did nothing to save thousands of jobs.

What's the consequence of this lack of action?

The consequence is thousands or hundreds of thousands of people become unemployed.....huge exporting companies fail......the Yen falls. Great....the Yen falls to (say) 120/dollar. What are they going to do now? They cannot rebuild the crashed companies and re-employ the people, no sir. Why not? Because China, Korea etc etc took up the market share that Japan let slip. So, in the end, Japan becomes bankrupt.....and the huge surplus that they didn't use to force down the Yen, is gone anyway!

A lose/lose situation.

Or, boj and govt get together and make a plan to (say) make the interest rate 0.01%...that ought to deter most Yen buyers....and at the same time sell as much Yen as they can reasonably afford. Remember, they are not throwing away Yen after Yen....they are buying USD and Euro etc, so they are not going to just toss their Yen in the toilet. Now, there are many other things they can do I'm sure, I'm no economist, but by taking these measures, they save their companies and therefore the workers jobs. Perhaps they even gain more market share because their end products are now cheaper on the open market, because the Yen is valued less against the other majors. The cherry on the cake is that the people have a govt that is serious about their peoples jobs and futures, and therefore serious about sorting out the shitstate of the Japan economy.

So, to make a solid intervention plan, or let the Yen drop in due course??

Intervention will be painfull. Not intervening might be fatal.

5c
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
26 traders viewing now